Much like the July 4th severe episode, surface winds were very weak throughout this event. However, there was a strong upper low that moved into north central North Dakota during the afternoon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
Much like the July 4th severe episode, surface winds were very weak throughout this event. However, there was a strong upper low that moved into north central North Dakota during the afternoon. The most sun and surface heating occurred around the low. By the early afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developed between Devils Lake and Cooperstown (ND), and several funnel cloud reports were quickly received. Other cells formed around the Grand Forks area and over portions of west central Minnesota. Every thunderstorm seemed to have a shelf cloud associated with it, each producing funnel clouds or low hanging appendages. The thunderstorms over west central Minnesota produced large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 11:47 AM CST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Latest SPC day 1 convective outlook backed up the marginal risk area through the entire FA now, and backed up the slight risk area up toward KTVF. Starting to see some tstm development around the KDVL region, but not a lot of heating has occurred there yet, so doubting this activity will be severe for a while yet. Otherwise a large area of light rain covers southeast ND, moving ENE. Still expecting thunder activity to increase more between now and mid to late afternoon, and last into the evening. Forecast has this thinking covered well for now. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Main forecast concern will be severe weather threat for today. High resolution guidance in fair agreement with surface features however Latest Cam guidance still trying to get together on where the main convective complex will develop. In the near term arc of shra/isold T associated with lead impulse will continue to lift northeastward with highest pops across the north this morning but with current weakening trend may be rather spotty. From late morning on relatively strong short wave currently in E MT will propagate east across the region today. As it does surface low pressure over central SD will lift ne to roughly the central valley by early afternoon with N-S boundary running along the dakotas/Minnesota border. As current pcpn band lifts northward the southern half of the forecast area should see solar which will help destabilize the atmosphere. With favorable upper support/forcing arriving aft 18z expecting some sort of complex developing and propagating east. Big question is where. Latest HRRRX cams have main development across the southern valley into eastern SD. Damaging wind looks to be the primary concern at this point with the complex propagating eastward across west central Mn during the afternoon. Farther north in less unstable airmass degree of convection more in question. With wave and inverted trof will likely still see areas of rain/T so will maintain relatively higher pops. Temperatures will hinge greatly on cloud cover with coolest temperatures across the north. Wave will push through this evening with rain ending from west to east lingering in the NE overnight. Cold advection in wake of low passage will drop temperatures into the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Friday will be a bit blustery and overall cooler. Convective temperatures running from the upper 60s north to mid 70s across the south. With moist layer AOB 5k ft expect cu development and have adjusted max temperatures close to convective temperatures. High pressure will bring diminishing wind to the region. Will have to monitor for fog potential depending on how much rain occurs today. Mid level ridging builds into the FA Saturday dry conditions and moderating temperatures but still on the cool side of average. With warm advection push and apparent weak wave riding the ridge will maintain low end pops Saturday night. Sunday-Wednesday...Southwest flow aloft expected to develop early in this period as a strong upper low ejects into the western Dakotas and then southern Manitoba. This upper low has trended slower with each of the past few model runs. Details still uncertain...but with the region in the warm sector multiple high impact severe thunderstorm events appear possible. The strongest signal for severe potential is on Monday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016 Still have VFR ceilings and vsbys across the area, with the exception of KDVL, which is seeing a tstm now. Thunderstorms will be prevalent across the FA into the early evening, and perhaps beyond that at KTVF and KBJI. As stronger storms move thru ceilings may briefly dip into MVFR levels, but hard to time that at this point. Models also indicate lowering ceilings tonight into Friday morning. Not sure exactly how low to go, so just kept them in MVFR levels for now. Winds overall look to remain on the low side. && .FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... ND...None. MN...None. && UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...Voelker LONG TERM...TG/Voelker AVIATION...Godon
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 652 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081200- WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS- WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE- EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN- SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN- WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER- PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON- GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT- RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY- 652 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2016 ...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY. THE FAVORED TIME FRAME FOR STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM NOON TO 6 PM. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND FAVORED LOCATION FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FARTHER NORTH CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:07 UTC.
6 funnel cloud, 3 tornado, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A small funnel cloud was seen moving up and down from the cloud base. The funnel was observed from Devils Lake.
A funnel cloud was seen hanging down halfway between the cloud base and the ground.
A tornado tracked intermittently to the east-northeast for about nine miles. Damage was confined to the occasional shelterbelt or grove along the path, where numerous large branches and limbs were broken off. The tornado was briefly viewed and photographed as it approached the city of Michigan, before it was wrapped in heavy rain. Peak winds were estimated at 80 mph.
Very strong winds and cracking trees were reported, as well as possible debris.
A funnel cloud was seen near the intersection of highway 15 and airport road.
Grand Forks air traffic control tower officials observed a brief tornado about three miles south of the airport tower. There was not much of a funnel, but rotation was evident in the cloud and a lot of dust was kicked up. The tornado remained over an open field, with peak winds estimated at 70 mph.
The funnel was spotted near the Alerus Center.
A funnel cloud was seen near the KNOX tower south of Grand Forks.
A touchdown was observed and photographed by a spotter who was located near Interstate 29 at mile point 134, or four miles north-northeast of Thompson. The tornado broke large tree branches in a shelterbelt along the path. Peak winds were estimated at 75 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Dakota, 2016Warnings in North Dakota, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 636672, 636674, 636677, 636681, 636684, 636685, 636686, 636687, 636688, 636690.