Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 16, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

No changes required for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Current surface analysis places low over north central Wyoming
while high remains over the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
Upper level analysis places Fujiwhara lows near northern Hudson
Bay while a compact low pushes along the international border near
the continental divide. Weak ridge remains over the area with
vigorous short wave pushing into western North Dakota from
Montana. This continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms.

For today...morning showers/storms will continue to push to the
east-northeast this morning as suggested by latest high-res
guidance. With limited instability and shear to work with, storms
should remain on the tame side.

Later in the day is when the storms could get more interesting.
Upper low continues to slowly track to the east while the next
potent short wave ejects and gets wrapped into broad cyclonic flow
to the southeast of aforementioned Hudson Bay system. This will
result in the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Strongest
instability is expected to remain over South Dakota, though models
continue to show an area of ~2 kj/kg cape developing over southern
portions of the area. Still some question on how far north this
will develop with the fly in the ointment being the effect the
morning convection will have on this along with lingering cloud
cover and cooler temperatures to the north of a warm front. With
that said, the potential for severe weather remains, especially
given the increasing deep layer shear through the day into the
evening (50kt+ 0-6km bulk). Showers/storms will work towards the
east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will linger mainly over northern
locations where broad cyclonic flow remains to the southwest of
Hudson Bay system. Some additional showers/storms will be
possible in the evening over the southwest as another short wave
sneaks through the flow. Limited instability should keep storms on
the tame side.

Broad ridge builds into the area to start the upcoming work week
with a warming trend developing. Expect well above average
temperatures throughout the area by mid-week. Occasional weak
disturbances moving through the ridge will bring low chances for
thunderstorms to portions of the area from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

VFR conditions, with MFVR to IFR in Thunderstorms expected today.
KBIS/KJMS will be impacted by showers and thunderstorms this
morning. Another chance of thunderstorms arrives this afternoon
and evening for all terminals.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
830 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-171330-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
830 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /730 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-171330-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
830 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /730 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PJA