A warm moist atmosphere combined with a disturbance moving across central North Carolina during peak heating, modest instability and seasonably strong deep layer shear allowed for the development of numerous showers and storms during the late afternoon into the evening. Many of these storms became strong to severe and produced widespread wind damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A warm moist atmosphere combined with a disturbance moving across central North Carolina during peak heating, modest instability and seasonably strong deep layer shear allowed for the development of numerous showers and storms during the late afternoon into the evening. Many of these storms became strong to severe and produced widespread wind damage. In addition, several areas of very heavy rain fell across the Northern Coastal Plain and the Triangle Region of central North Carolina. This resulted in many reports of flooding and water rescues.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:03 PM EST, 2 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 203 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A light westerly flow aloft this weekend will give way to northwest flow aloft next week as an upper level ridge strengthens over the Central Plains. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 145 PM Saturday... Central NC lies on the E/SE periphery of broad cyclonic flow aloft over the OH/TN valley and central Appalachians. Seasonable moisture,diurnal destabilization (albeit limited by cloud cover) and DPVA attendant small amplitude waves tracking E/NE along the southern periphery of the westerlies in TN/NC/VA have already (as of noon) resulted in scattered shower development over the W/SW Piedmont and Sandhills, with thunderstorms thus far been confined to the Carolina coast where less cloud cover (stronger insolation) and richer low-level moisture have already yielded moderate diurnal destabilization (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). With early convective development to the W/SW and broken/overcast cloud cover over much of central NC, diurnal destabilization will be significantly affected, especially in the W/SW Piedmont where 16Z SPC mesoanalysis indicated 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 50-75 J/kg of CIN, compared to 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and no CIN along/east of the I-95 corridor. With the above in mind, expect above normal chances for convection across the entire area this afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is progged to increase to 20-30 kt this afternoon and evening along/west of Hwy 1 in closer vicinity to stronger flow aloft rounding the base of a broad trough over the TN valley into the central Appalachians. However, diurnal destabilization, low-level lapse rates and DCAPE will all be at a minimum west of Hwy 1. East of Hwy 1 where moderate destabilization is in progress, deep-layer shear will remain weak (<= 20 kt), as will DCAPE (< 750 J/kg), with PWAT values AOA 2.00". With the above in mind, expect little severe weather threat today aside from the possibility of a brief/isolated wet downburst along/east of the I-95 corridor in association with robust updrafts (50+ KFT echo tops) capable of lofting 30+ dBZ precip cores above 40 KFT. In this type of environment (i.e. unorganized and short-lived updrafts), any deep convection has the potential to produce a brief downburst with 30-50 mph wind gusts. Given that numerous short-lived updrafts may briefly achieve 50 KFT echo tops, lead time is typically no greater than 5-10 mins, and that the temporal/spatial magnitude of an associated downburst is small, warning issuance in such a scenario is all-too-often counter productive. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/... As of 145 PM Saturday... The primary belt of westerlies will lift north of the region on Sunday as the broad trough over the TN/OH valley this afternoon lifts NE into New England. As a result, any small amplitude waves tracking east along the southern fringe of the westerlies will generally remain north of the region, though guidance suggests a weak shear axis may stall over eastern/coastal NC, on the E/NE periphery of a developing upper level ridge over the Deep South and lower Midwest. As a result, expect scattered diurnal convection to occur primarily along/east of the I-95 corridor, with chances diminishing several hours after sunset (by midnight). Expect highs in the upper 80s to 90F, lows in the lower 70s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/... As of 203 PM Saturday... After the late weekend frontal passage, the frontal zone will be along the coast with perhaps a lingering chance of a shower across the south early Monday. We languish in an unsettled weak trof zone beneath the westerlies with weak forcing but abundant moisture and instability leading to slightly better than climatological (30-40%) diurnal PoPs. Highs should reach lower 90s as low level flow remains predominantly southwest with persistent 1440m thicknesses. Our chance for stronger, more widespread convection will be on the uptick from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday night as strong ridging in the midwest amplifies and deepens the downstream trof over the east coast. A stronger front will follow the deepening trof south to greatly enhance low level shear concurrent with diurnal instability and should result in well-organized and potentially severe convection. Highs will again reach the lower 90s with some lower readings possible in areas hindered by morning cloud or shower coverage. Post-fropa, we're looking at drying in the ensuing northwest flow with diminished chances for precip Wednesday into the early weekend. Of course, northwest flow brings its own uncertainty due to the proclivity for downstream convection in the Midwest or Ohio Valley to wander through, so will keep near climatological diurnal PoPs each day. Slow modification of the airmass over the area will result in a gradual warming trend, from climatological 88-92 on Wednesday and Thursday to perhaps mid 90s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 145 PM Saturday... 24-hr TAF Period: MVFR ceilings and scattered convection will be possible at all terminals through this evening. VFR conditions are expected after midnight, though sub-VFR stratus and/or fog may develop prior to sunrise. Any fog/stratus is expected to lift by 12- 14Z Sunday, with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing until mid/late afternoon when scattered convection will once again be possible at all terminals, particularly RDU/FAY/RWI. Looking ahead: A similar pattern characterized by above normal chances for convection will persist through early/mid next week as westerly flow aloft evolves into NW flow aloft. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Vincent
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-170800- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016
NCZ028-162030-
EDGECOMBE NC-
341 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EDGECOMBE COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TARBORO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TARBORO...PRINCEVILLE...PINETOPS...MACCLESFIELD...CONETOE...SPEED...
LEGGETT AND KINGSBORO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3585 7735 3574 7769 3580 7774 3583 7775
3584 7777 3588 7780 3607 7754 3607 7753
3604 7753 3604 7747 3602 7744 3600 7743
3600 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 251DEG 16KT 3586 7762
77The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 7 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:17 UTC.
15 thunderstorm wind, 6 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
One tree was reported down on Pony Farm Road near Little Creek Church Road.
One tree was reported down on Pony Farm Road near Business Highway 70.
One tree was reported down on Antioch Church Road near State Route 96.
One tree was reported down on Covered Bridge Road near Eatmon Road.
Trees were reported down near Cleveland Road and State Route 42.
A bridge was reported under water on Flood's Store Road near Charlie Road.
A few roads were closed or impassible for an extended period of time due to flash flooding between Rocky Mount and Tarboro. The intersections of Antioch Road and Nobles Mill Pond Road, Bulluck School Road at NC 43 North, and Anaconda Road at Fountain Street all remained closed or impassible for over 24 hours.
A couple of trees were reported down on Silent Night Hill Road.
Tree branches fell into and knocked down power lines on Inger Avenue in Albemarle, North Carolina.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding in the city of Greensboro. Some of the flooded intersections included US-29 at Bessemer Avenue, North Church Street at Market Street, Wendover Avenue at Holden Road, and US-29 at Headquarters Drive.
Flash flooding due to heavy rainfall was reported at the intersection of Ferndale Drive and Tarboro Street, as well as on Mallory Street. A water rescue was reported on Cokey Road.
Trees were reported down across the county.
One tree was reported down in Hamlet.
One tree was reported down on State Route 177 South.
One tree was reported down near Stanton Hill Road.
One tree was reported down at 307 Fayetteville Road.
One tree was reported down at 968 Doc Brown Road.
Flash flooding was reported at numerous locations in Raleigh and Cary. A couple water rescues took place in Raleigh, including one at Lake Boone Trail and Interstate 440 and one at Glenwood Avenue and Creedmoor Road. Numerous other water rescues took place in Cary, including a few at a home on East Park Street, and a woman and three children on King Lawrence Road. Rescues also took place at the intersection of Cary Parkway and Saddle Creek Lane, High House Road and Davis Drive, Harrison Avenue and Weston Parkway, and Cary Parkway and High House Road. Several roads were also closed, including Avent Ferry Road at Trailwood Drive. Numerous vehicles at Crabtree Valley Mall and numerous homes off of Jones Franklin Road were also flooded.
Four inches of rain fell over Durham in two and a half hours. The heavy rain flooded some of the units at Eagle Point Apartments on East Pilot Street and Francesca's Cafe on 9th Street. Cars were partially submerged at the Wellons Village Shopping Center near Miami Boulevard and five vehicles were stranded in flood waters at the intersection of Garrett Road and Old Chapel Hill Road.
Trees were reported down at Vinson Road and Glen Laurel Road.
Trees were reported down in the 870 Block of Government Road.
Heavy rain caused flooding along Crabtree Creek from Anderson Drive to Atlantic Avenue. The creek remained over flood stage for more than 10 hours before receding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 651874, 651911, 651539, 651540, 651878, 652082, 653524, 651876, 651879, 653530, 653535, 651880, 651881, 651882, 651883, 651886, 651885, 653659, 653723, 651884, 651887, 653729.