A significant bow echo developed near the South Dakota, Minnesota border early Saturday evening, July 16th. This bow echo moved southeast along the Minnesota River Valley and caused significant wind damage around Granite Falls where widespread trees and power lines were blown down.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MPX wrote it up.
A significant bow echo developed near the South Dakota, Minnesota border early Saturday evening, July 16th. This bow echo moved southeast along the Minnesota River Valley and caused significant wind damage around Granite Falls where widespread trees and power lines were blown down. This also included major power lines for Xcel Energy and Great River Energy outside of Granite Falls which caused additional problems. There was damage in the city industrial park, where at least one structure was destroyed and a few others damaged. Officials indicated that the damage to homes seemed moderate, with some trees falling on properties. At the airport, the Fagen Fighters Museum reported three T-hangars and the contents inside destroyed, including at least three planes. There was also a measured wind gust of 60 knots at the Montevideo airport
As this system raced southeast across south central Minnesota, a few more reports of wind damage occurred. However, the storm weakened considerably but torrential rainfall and training thunderstorms led to flooding, especially around St. James.
There were several wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across south central Minnesota between 9:00 PM and 11:00 PM CST, with a measured wind gust of 53 mph at the Mankato airport at 1035 PM CST.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 2:49 PM CST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 349 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016 Heavy rain possible with the storms tonight, but not expecting any problems unless the rain falls across the hard-hit areas of north central MN, or directly over the Twin Cities Metro. Severe wind is also possible, but don't expect a high-end severe weather event. Confidence is high that an evening MCS from the Dakotas will move across Minnesota overnight. There is still uncertainty on how it will evolve once it reaches MN and whether heads to western WI or northern IA. As of now, not expecting high end severe weather or flooding event because the atmospheric ingredients don't all line up. There is still potential for some damaging wind and localized heavy rain, but there appears to be a low ceiling on the magnitude. First the flooding. PWAT values will increase to 1.75 inches across the region with H925 winds of 40kts. However the low level jet speed is fairly uniform across the region. Compare that to the July 11 event, and winds were southerly at 40kts across southern MN, but only 10 knots across northern MN. North central MN was in the area of deceleration, or convergence, for several hours which resulted in a prolonged period convection with heavy rain and significant widespread flooding. Not to mention PWAT values from that event were on the order of 2 inches, which is significantly more than expected with tonights system. Tonight's set up is less concerning for flash flooding since there is not a defined warm front and area of low level convergence, and the storms should progress eastward fairly fast. In summary, a few locations will probably see 2-3 inches of rain, but most places will be in the 1-2 inch range which shouldn't be an issue unless it falls in the hard-hit areas of north central MN and western WI. As of now, think the most likely scenario is along and south of I-94 closer to the Minnesota river valley, which would be an ideal location. Second the severe. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kts, with a veering wind profile is favorable for severe weather. The 30-35kt 3km shear vectors are oriented west to east, which would be perpendicular to the line of storms and help maintain the cold pool which would allow the storms to race eastward and produce damaging wind. The limiting factor is the instability. Forecast soundings are fairly moist at mid levels, so there is not much potential for exceeding our forecast 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the line of storms. For that reason, should see a line of storms capable of producing damaging wind move east overnight, but wouldn't expect high end severe weather with 70 or 80 mph wind gusts. The best potential is along the MN river valley toward I-90 along the instability gradient. Looking ahead to Sunday, the elevated mixed layer moves in which allows 2000 to 2500 J/kg of CAPE to develop by Sunday afternoon. This is in the wake of the surface boundary and beneath a stout 750mb capping inversion off the GFS. Meanwhile the NAM has the atmosphere uncapped over the eastern portion of the forecast area, with over 3000 J/kg. Trended toward the GFS for Sunday since there is no upper level support to break through CAP. Continued with a dry forecast for western MN Sunday and tapered off POPs eastward throughout the day since the majority of the convection should develop across northeast IA. Fi the capping inversion doesnt come to fruition, should have a favorable setup for severe storms across southeast MN and western WI. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016 The main story during the latter portion of the forecast still looks to be the potential for a couple of hot days across the area. In the big picture, a strong ridge still looks to build across the center of the country during the middle part of the week. The solutions are perhaps slightly less aggressive with the ridge than they were a few days ago, but its strength is still highly anomalous, and we should still see mid 90s to around 100 degrees across portions of our area during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. The ECMWF has come around to the GFS forecast in the Friday/Saturday time frame, bringing a cold front through the area and cooling things back down. It previously hung onto the ridge a day or so longer than the GFS. The Canadian remains a bit slower, so that possibility still can't be discounted, but the consensus forecast certainly brings the hottest temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, things look reasonably quiet weatherwise through the period. Precipitation should be south/east of the are tomorrow night as the cold front continues to push southeast. High pressure and northwest upper flow will then keep things fair and dry for a few days, with precipitation chances slowly returning from the west by Tuesday night and Wednesday as we get into good return flow and see a quick increase in heat/humidity from west to east. Depending on the amount of convection that moves through with the initial surge of heat/humidity we could see Wednesday's highs held in check a bit, particularly across the central and eastern portion of the area. However, by Thursday it looks like most of the area should be capped, with just some small PoPs remaining across the east. We will then see the next chance of showers/thunderstorms drop in from northwest to southeast Thursday night into early Friday as the cold front moves through the area. Right now it appears the best chances during that time frame will be to our north where forcing will be stronger and the cap will be weaker. The ECMWF brings the front through dry, which wouldn't be shocking, but included some chance PoPs in deference to the GFS solution and that of several GEFS members. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016 VFR conditions with thunderstorms expected later tonight followed by low clouds and eventually west northwest winds Sunday. Thunderstorms will develop in the Dakotas and eventually shift southeast across MN. At this time the best potential for storms is south of I-94, and centered on the Minnesota River Valley, so KRWF is most likely to be affected by the storms. MVFR stratus will follow in the wake of the storms, but this should lift by late Sunday morning as westerly winds bring in drier air. KMSP... Moved up the timing of the storms at MSP as things appear to be trending quicker. Storms should be weakening, so not anticipating any hail, and the damaging wind potential is better south of KMSP. Forecast soundings show low stratus in the wake of the storms, with improvement around 18Z Sunday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Wind N at 5kts. Tue...VFR. Wind S at 10g15kts. Wed...VFR with MVFR Cigs possible. Wind S at 15g25kt. && .MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. && SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...999 AVIATION...JRB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 MNZ047>049-051-054>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ023-024-026- 171915- STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-SHERBURNE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA- KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON- YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA- REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH- WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-PEPIN- 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN RIVER VALLEY AND I-90. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. MNZ041>045-050-052-053-WIZ014>016-025-027-028-171915- DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-BENTON-ISANTI-CHISAGO- POLK-BARRON-RUSK-DUNN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE- 209 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. THE RISK FOR HEAT ILLNESS WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. JRB
The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 171 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:40 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous trees and power lines were blown down across a widespread area of Montevideo.
Several sources from the media, law enforcement and trained spotters reported widespread damage across the city of Granite Falls. Numerous trees and power lines were blown down along with some roof damage to businesses. The area was concentrated west and south of the Minnesota River in Yellow Medicine County.
The Fagen Fighters Museum at the airport had three T-hangars destroyed, including the contents inside, and three planes.
Several sources from the media, law enforcement and trained spotters reported widespread damage across the city of Granite Falls. Numerous trees and power lines were blown down along with some roof damage to businesses. The area affected included the east side of Granite Falls, which is east of the Minnesota River and in Chippewa County.
A few reports of downed trees and power lines from near Sacred Heart, south to the Minnesota River.
A few trees were blown down in the northwest side of Nicollet County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 644839, 644841, 644837, 647091, 647115, 647090, 647092, 647093, 644838.