Low pressure moved across southern Alberta into Saskatchewan and a secondary low developed over Minnesota. The initial brief period of strong winds over far southwest North Dakota developed overnight as a warm front with showers lifted through the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Low pressure moved across southern Alberta into Saskatchewan and a secondary low developed over Minnesota. The initial brief period of strong winds over far southwest North Dakota developed overnight as a warm front with showers lifted through the area. The winds diminished quickly, though re-developed in the wake of the passing cold front during the afternoon hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 6:56 PM CST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY BLENDED TO CURRENT OBS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS OVER WESTERN ND...BUT NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 A DYNAMIC AND SPRING-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG AHEAD OF IT AND STRONG WINDS IN ITS WAKE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS OF 21 UTC...A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN SOUTHEASTERN MT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 986 MB SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS. THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...HIGH LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT ON LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S F BENEATH A STOUT INVERSION ALOFT THANKS TO ANOMALOUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARMTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. VISIBILITIES FROM NEAR NEW SALEM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AS OF MID AFTERNOON ARE STILL BELOW 1/2SM IN MANY AREAS...AND WITH THE FAVORABLE SETUP AND CONSISTENT HRRR AND ESRL-HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOWING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ND WE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 06 UTC...EXCEPT OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND WHERE WE RAN IT UNTIL 12 UTC. WE ACTUALLY EXPECT FOG TO LIFT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT FOLLOWS SUITE AND INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER SUBSIDENCE. WE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE TYPE OR AREAL EXTENT OF WIND HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...WE DID ADJUST THE START TIMES SUCH THAT THE WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ND START AT 03 UTC TONIGHT...AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL ND STARTS BETWEEN 06 AND 08 UTC. THAT MOVE WAS BASED ON INITIAL PRESSURE RISES THAT WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NEEDED IF ISALLOBARIC FORCING OVERCOMES NOCTURNAL STABILIZING EFFECTS AS RECENT RAP ITERATIONS HAVE SHOWN 8-10 MB/3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE STRONG AREA-WIDE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THE 12 UTC GFS WAS A BIT STRONGER WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THAN THE 12 UTC NAM AND SUGGESTS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING AGAIN MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND TO THE EAST...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO THAT YET AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS EVEN FROM THE GFS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVELS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC. WE DO EXPECT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WE ARE STILL CARRYING SOME LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL ND...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS FROM THAT IS LOW GIVEN A RATHER NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ROADS TO BE CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 32 F IN MANY AREAS. FINALLY...THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST ND...AS NOTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD TURN TO ALL SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. AFTER SUNDAY COOLER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 0656 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS AND VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS CURRENTLY ARE IN LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES WITH EXCEPTION OF KDIK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALSO DROP TO LIFR THIS EVENING. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST FROM 30-45 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING FROM 50 TO 60 MPH FRIDAY WILL POSE A CONCERN FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MAY REACH 30 PERCENT. IF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND IS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH TONIGHT AND THE WFAS...NFDRS FIRE DANGER RATING ENDS UP IN THE HIGH OR GREATER CATEGORY...A RED FLAG WARNING COULD BE NEEDED WITH THE MORNING FORECAST RELEASE. THE AREA OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS ACROSS SLOPE...BOWMAN...AND ADAMS COUNTIES. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-019-020-034-035-042. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ019-020-034-035-042-045-046. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NDZ017-018- 031>033-041. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013- 021>023. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ003>005- 010>013-021>023-025. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ036-037-047- 048-050-051. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NDZ040-043-044. && UPDATE...JNS SHORT TERM...CJS LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...ZH FIRE WEATHER...CJS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 409 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-192215- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER- STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN- LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 409 PM CST THU FEB 18 2016 /309 PM MST THU FEB 18 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES...AND IN FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA A HIGH WIND WARNING...ALSO GO INTO EFFECT IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. SEE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. SEE WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. CJS/AJ
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Bowman NDDOT site reported a sustained wind of 43 mph.
Sand Creek RAWS reported a wind gust of 58 mph.
Sustained wind is estimated for western Adams County based on the Bowman NDDOT site report in Bowman County.
Beach AWOS reported a sustained wind of 44 mph.
Watford City AWOS reported a sustained wind of 41 mph.
Gladstone NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 61 mph.
Sustained wind is estimated for northwest Dunn County based on the Watford City AWOS report in McKenzie County.
Sustained wind is estimated for western Billings County base on the Beach AWOS report in Golden Valley County.
Sustained wind is estimated for northern Hettinger County based on the Gladstone NDDOT site report in Stark County.
Golden Valley NDDOT site reported a wind gust of 60 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 614752, 614753, 614760, 614755, 614756, 614757, 614758, 614759, 614761, 619869.