Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 1, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of tropical system Bonnie will slowly lift northeast
along the North Carolina coastline tonight and tomorrow before moving
offshore on Friday. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest
Friday night and stall over the region on Saturday. A stronger cold
front will move through the region late Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM: Convective coverage remains mostly confined to the
mountains, but small clusters of showers have developed over the
Catawba River zones in bands of congested cumulus. Meso model
trends currently show the activity continuing to propagate slowly
southward, with favored areas thus being the foothills, though
some guidance correctly picked up on the aforementioned Catawba
development. The updated PoPs have been updated to focus activity
more in these areas.  However a few isolated clusters of cells
forming elsewhere certainly would be no surprise. The activity
so far has remained relatively tame, and though a few cells have
approached severe criteria, we have not yet gotten any reports
of wind or hail. Shear and moisture profiles are fairly similar
to yesterday, and a couple of severe storms did develop then,
so we still consider there to be a small threat of damaging wind
or large hail this aftn.

Tonight into Thursday, heights rise aloft as remnants of Bonnie
move further up the NC coast, and as flow turns southwesterly
ahead of a cold front pushing thru the Ohio Valley. Increasing
cirrus should be seen overnight over the area as front encroaches
from the north and west. Patchy fog may develop where cirrus is
not thick enough to restrict radiation. Diurnal convection will
prevail again Thursday as the main weather of interest. While aftn
lapse rates are not progged to be as strong as those today, the
return flow should allow slightly more humid conditions to make
up for any reduction in buoyancy aloft. Another day of scattered
SHRA/TSRA is expected. One difference will be that shear may be a
tad stronger, though probably not enough to preclude pulse-mode
convection. If nothing else storms may be a little more mobile,
which is good in light of slightly higher PWAT values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM: Flat ridging builds across the area Friday. The ridge
axis moves to the coast on Friday as northern and southern stream
upper lows move into the MS river valley. At the surface, a weak
cold front drops into the area from the NW on Friday then washes out
over the area on Saturday. Deep layer moisture moves in with the
front on Friday then moves out on Saturday. With mainly diurnal
convection expected both days, coverage should be higher on Friday
due to the increased moisture. Moderate instability develops both
days, but should be greater on Saturday, along with higher DCAPE
values due to the decrease in mid level moisture. Although shear
will be light on both days, Saturday would have the highest values.
Therefore, expect a better chance of severe storms on Saturday,
although coverage would remain isolated. Still expect a couple of
severe storms on Friday however. The threat of isolated flooding
continues each day with slow moving storms, but would expect a
slightly better chance on Friday with the higher moisture values and
greater overall coverage. Highs a couple of degrees above normal
Friday rise a couple of degrees on Saturday. Lows remain nearly
steady 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Sunday with relatively flat upper ridging moving off the southeast
coast while a deep upper trof approaches the Carolinas from the NW.
Over the next couple of days, the trof axis gradually moves east and
just north of the CWFA. It is expected to be east of the fcst area by
the end of the medium range on Wednesday as the upper ridge spreads
farther east.

At the sfc, a fairly strong cold front approaches the CWFA early Sunday
and is expected to move thru the fcst area sometime late Sunday into early
Monday with drier and cooler air overspreading the region in the front's
wake. The long range models have been trying to develop another low over
the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and bring it up over
Florida by the end of the period. The latest 12Z run of the GFS now has
a stronger sfc high overspreading the southeast by midweek, thus keeping
the low and any associated deep moisture farther south. This is similar to
the older run of the ECMWF. As for the sensible fcst, I increased POPs to
low end likely over most of the CWFA for numerous showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday. Drying is still expected during the latter half of Monday with
dry conditions for the rest of the medium range. Temps should remain near
normal for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and KHKY: Meso models generally depict the better/stronger
convective coverage west of these sites, but nonetheless congested
cumulus are present nearby. Based on trends so far today a downpour
producing MVFR to IFR vsby can easily form once these are seen
on satellite imagery. TEMPOs accordingly are included for TSRA
chances this aftn. Following the end of diurnal convection, the
next impactful weather is expected to be low stratus forming in
the early AM Thu, as low level winds veer around to southerly and
weak warm upglide lifts moisture associated with the remnants of TS
Bonnie. With support for restrictions from several guidance sources,
I currently have included IFR at KHKY and MVFR at KCLT. Winds
will remain NE-ly until after daybreak when they will come up from
the SW.

Elsewhere: Convective coverage will be greatest over the mountains
today, though all sites are at some risk of seeing a TS and
brief restrictions in +RA. All sites get a TEMPO with timing
reflecting radar/satellite as of 1740z, and latest meso model
trends. Convection will wane after sunset. Cirrus are expected to
begin advecting in from the west overnight. MOS products generally
show fog developing near daybreak, but given expectation of cirrus
and relatively large dewpt depressions, this is currently omitted
except at KAND where they are least likely to form a cig. Will
advise next shift to consider fog potential for 00z set. Winds
will largely be light/variable overnight but come up from the SW
Thu mrng.

Outlook...A weak cold front will approach the area from the NW
Thursday and stall over the region on Friday. So an increasing
coverage of afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA is expected over the next
few days.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  85%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  94%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     High  89%     Med   74%     Med   75%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  93%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High  99%     Med   77%     High  93%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
437 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
437 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. ALL OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ033-503>505-011845-
GREATER BURKE NC-AVERY NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
157 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
BURKE...SOUTH CENTRAL AVERY AND NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NEWLAND TO 11 MILES WEST OF LENOIR...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TABLE ROCK...LINVILLE FALLS...B.R. PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO
GRANDFATHER...ALTAMONT...JONAS RIDGE AND ASHFORD.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8178 3593 8178 3592 8175 3589 8173
      3587 8170 3580 8172 3590 8198 3591 8198
      3593 8201 3602 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 343DEG 5KT 3600 8199 3591 8174

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ050-505-011845-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-MITCHELL NC-
210 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND NORTH CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
B.R. PARKWAY-LITTLE SWITZERLAND TO LINVILLE...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO
LITTLE SWITZERLAND...NORTH COVE...LITTLE SWITZERLAND AND WOODLAWN.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3590 8209 3584 8198 3574 8211 3581 8215
      3582 8213 3584 8215 3584 8214 3586 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 319DEG 6KT 3583 8210

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ063-064-011845-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
214 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL JACKSON
AND WEST CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 214 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES WEST OF BREVARD...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF BLACK BALSAM
AREA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE TOXAWAY...BALSAM GROVE AND WOLF MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8291 3522 8279 3512 8294 3523 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 318DEG 6KT 3524 8292

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ010-SCZ001-011915-
RABUN GA-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
223 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN RABUN
AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF WALHALLA...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF OCONEE STATE
PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN REST.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8323 3498 8310 3488 8307 3487 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 355DEG 5KT 3493 8316

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

NCZ065-011915-
HENDERSON NC-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTH OF HENDERSONVILLE...OR NEAR FLAT ROCK. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HENDERSONVILLE...FLAT
ROCK...LAUREL PARK...VALLEY HILL...TUXEDO...EAST FLAT ROCK AND DANA.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8238 3521 8239 3520 8240 3520 8242
      3521 8250 3530 8251 3534 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 272DEG 2KT 3526 8246

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ010-011915-
RABUN GA-
230 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL RABUN COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CLAYTON...OR NEAR BLACK ROCK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN CITY...TIGER...DILLARD...SKY VALLEY AND BLACK ROCK
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8349 3500 8332 3500 8331 3480 8331
      3479 8332 3478 8332 3481 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 271DEG 2KT 3489 8342

CDG