Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, June 1, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.AVIATION...
There is a good chance of MVFR ceilings through much of the TAF
period as well as showers and a few thunderstorms (the latter
mainly afternoon to evening hours) as an upper level trough moves
overhead and interacts with low to mid level moisture in place
across the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Radar trends showing remaining precipitation, in general, on a
downward trend in line with hi-res short term models. Focus will
then shift to precipitation chances for today and tonight. The
center of the upper low that has been one of the important factors
in the precipitation development the last 12 to 24 hours is centered
over northern Sonora early this morning. This low will move to
northern Chihuahua by late day, then opening up some as moves to the
Big Bend and southwest Texas overnight. At the surface a northeast
flow will develop today in response to both high pressure building
into the central plains and weak cyclogenesis south of the Rio
Grande. This should limit low level convergence with the potential
for only very subtle low level forcing. This means precipitation
today will be a combination of mid to upper level forcing as the low
and associated jet streak move toward the region and a gradual
destabilization of the air mass in place across the forecast area.
However, cool air moving in with the northeasterly surface flow and
abundant cloud cover will limit upward potential for temperatures,
and thus magnitude of instability. Model progs suggesting afternoon
MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg which will be enough to generate
convection given weak cap and synoptic scale forcing but will also
limit severe potential. PWATs progged near 1.25 inches are pretty
typical for this time of year, but potential for some slowly moving
storms suggests possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Hard at
this time to see a focus for precipitation. Majority of the
guidance slightly favors southern half of the forecast area,
although of note are the WRF-NAM and TTU-WRF that tend to favor
the north. Movement of storms should favor west to east initially,
but as the low approaches tonight and upper flow backs from south
to east will see a tendency for storms, particulary those across
the northern half of the area, to move east to west.

LONG TERM...
No large changes were introduced with this forecast package.
Aforementioned upper low is still favored to lose its phasing with
a northern stream trough and stall over the Hill Country by
Thursday evening. PWAT axis will have shifted well to our east by
this time, however enough lingering moisture northwest of this low
combined with diurnal destabilization could easily enhance one
final round of storms over much of the region on Thursday.
Thereafter, increasing subsidence and drying ahead of stout upper
ridging in the Desert SW will nudge eastward and serve to dry out
the brunt of the forecast area on Friday. The exception to this is
our southeast zones nearest the upper low and the back edge of its
moist layer. Thereafter, the upper flow trends more northeasterly
south of a zonal extension of the upper ridge poised to our west.
There is still some opportunity for this flow to buckle more
northwesterly by late in the weekend through early next week which
may direct a conditional threat of storms our way from the Raton
Mesa, but the model spectrum is not in agreement with this
scenario at present time. High temps will easily rebound near
seasonal norms in the wake of the upper low/trough.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

07/93/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ021>044-020845-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
334 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING
PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.