NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 1, 3:18 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 1, 3:18 PM CST, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
418 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016
The main issue through these next 36 hours surrounds the
uncertainty regarding seemingly-small shower/thunderstorm chances
primarily during the daylight hours Thursday. This is another
classic, subtle-forcing situation with some models (such as the
GFS and NSSL WRF) acknowledging that at least some spotty
activity is possible, while others (such as the NAM and some other
4km WRF runs) insist on keeping the entire CWA dry. At least for
now, have officially confined any precip chances (POPs) for
Thursday to counties mainly north of Interstate 80, but should
activity develop, it may affect some other areas as well. Should
anything develop, parameters do not appear very supportive of
severe storms, but we have been somewhat surprised by this notion
a few times recently, and have at least acknowledged a small
hail/gusty wind possibility in the latest Hazardous Weather
Outlook (HWOGID).
Taking a quick look at the current scene as of 330 PM, an overall
pretty darn pleasant one to kick off June, with sunny/mostly sunny
skies CWA-wide and any appreciable convective instability shunted
several counties off to our south and west. Occasionally gusty
northwest breezes (especially earlier in the day) continue to
subside as a broad surface high pressure ridge promotes a weak
gradient. High temps are on pace to top out 75-78 most areas. In
the mid-upper levels, fairly unremarkable west-to-east flow
prevails, well to the south of a strong shortwave trough tracking
east along the MN/Ontario border.
Now looking ahead through each of the next 3 day/night forecast
periods:
This evening/tonight:
Confidence is high that the vast majority (if not the entire) CWA
stays dry through sunrise. However, this is not truly "guaranteed"
especially for far northwestern counties. In theory, any
thunderstorms that manage to develop to our west this evening will
not survive eastward into the CWA. However, there is just enough
subtle warm air/moisture advection in the 850-700 millibar layer,
that a few models (such as the GFS) are spitting out some subtle
QPF signals late in the night brushing the far northwest CWA. As
a compromise between the previous dry forecast and actually going
with a formal/iffy thunderstorm chance, decided to introduce a
generic "slight chance of sprinkles" as a compromise. Otherwise,
any tiny rain chances aside, light breezes should average
southerly tonight. Low temps changed very little, mainly mid 50s.
Thursday daytime:
Although most models focus small chances for convection slightly
north of our CWA (especially during the afternoon), previous shift
introduced a slight chance of showers/storms to mainly counties
north of Interstate 80, and given there are still small signs of
this per some models, saw no reason to pull the plug on it. For
the morning hours, these small chances are mainly driven by
elevated moisture advection. However, kept much of the same area
in small POPs during the afternoon given an outside chance that a
few stronger storms could maybe even pop in a weakly-capped
environment featuring as much as 500-1000 J/kg of mixed-layer
CAPE. As already mentioned, if in fact storms do pop, they may
affect counties farther south as well. In other departments, the
main difference from today will be stronger south winds, with
especially the afternoon hours averaging around 15 MPH from the
south with higher gusts. High temps are aimed roughly 5 degrees
warmer than today into the low 80s.
Thursday evening/night:
At least for now, the forecast remains dry post-00z/7 PM. However,
this bears watching, as should any late afternoon storms still be
affecting our northern zones by early evening, they may not just
"magically" disappear and could linger for at least a few more
hours. This scenario is supported by the 12z run of the EMC 4km
WRF, but with limited support from most models and in
collaboration with neighboring offices, have left the entire
evening/night period dry for now. Steadier southerly breezes will
help hold overnight low temps closer to 60.
.MID TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016
This "mid term" period is a tale of two days, as Friday contains
at least a chance (not a certainty) of strong to severe
thunderstorm development along a passing cold front, while
Saturday carries pretty high confidence in being a dry albeit,
breezy and very slightly cooler day to kick off the weekend. A few
more details follow:
Friday/Friday night:
Obviously the main focus here is on the current SPC Day 3 Marginal
Risk of severe storms. Although for now this risk if mainly
centered within the northeast 1/4 of the CWA, could easily see
this risk eventually encompassing more of the area depending on
just how far southwest at least isolated convection can "back-
build" southwestward along the passing cold front. Although models
still naturally vary on the details, the current expectation is
that the majority of the day is dry and breezy from the south
ahead of the front, with chances for at least isolated storms
increasing by mid-late afternoon and into the evening before
largely departing southeast of the CWA by midnight. As storms
develop, severe looks like a decent bet as ML-CAPE climbs up to
around 2000 J/kg in the presence of 30-40kt of deep-layer shear.
Large hail and damaging winds the main threats as usual, with at
least brief supercell structures possible until/unless storms
develop into more of a southeastward-marching line with time. All
this being said, severe weather is not a "sure thing" for our
area, as the better forcing will reside slightly to our northeast
along the track of an advancing upper level trough. Temp-wise,
expect highs to spike into the mid-80s most areas ahead of the
invading front, helping add to available instability.
Saturday:
In the wake of the departing system/cold front, this should be a
dry/mostly sunny day although a few residual showers could come
somewhat close to brushing our eastern zones and this bears
watching. Otherwise, flow aloft turns more northerly in response
to a building western CONUS ridge. It looks to be a breezy day
with northwest winds generally 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.
Despite the northerly winds, good mixing should promote highs only
slightly cooler than Friday, and still have most areas into the
80-83 range.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016
Northwesterly upper level flow looks to remain in place across the
region through the end of the weekend into the first half of the
next work week. The upper level pattern is still well amplified
Sun/Mon, but an area of low pressure moving in from the west coast
will start to change that late in the period. This low will start
breaking down the ridging over the Rockies as it moves east through
the northern half of CA, filling as it moves into the central
Rockies. The ridge axis also is shifted east, passing through our
area mainly on Wed.
The current forecast is dry, but uncertainties linger in whether it
will actually stay that way. Monday evening/night is the first
questionable period, thunderstorms look to develop over the front
range/high plains during the afternoon along a surface trough axis,
and will be a matter of whether or not things can linger far enough
east to affect our CWA. At this point, the dry forecast is supported
by the ECMWF and GEM, with the GFS showing a better chance for
precip. The other time frame with some uncertainty is late
Wednesday, and into Wed night (currently just beyond the official
forecast period), as an upper level shortwave looks to cross the
Plains. Will see how models trend timing/location-wise before
inserting PoPs.
Otherwise, the winds remain northerly on Sunday behind the frontal
passage, before starting to turn back to the south on Monday ahead
of the surface trough. Not looking at any notable changes in
temperatures, with highs in the lower/mid 80s through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016
General Overview:
Confidence in VFR visibility and especially ceiling is
rather high through the period. Confidence is also reasonably high
in rain/thunderstorm-free weather, but this is not necessarily a
"guarantee". More details follow:
Ceiling/visibility: Only a limited smattering of mid-high level
clouds is anticipated.
Precipitation/thunderstorms: Although confidence in occurrence is
simply too low at this time to advertise in the TAFs, there is
probably a very small chance of a rogue shower/storm during the
latter half of the period, and this will need monitored.
Winds: Speeds should not be much of an issue, with most of the
period averaging near/below 10kt, initially from the northwest
this afternoon and then transitioning to more southerly tonight
into Thursday. By mid-late Thursday morning, sustained speeds
near/above 12kt will become possible.
&&
.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
MID TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch