A cold front moved across the Champlain Valley of NY/VT during the afternoon of July 7th. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed in the Champlain Valley of New York and then intensified as they crossed into Vermont.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BTV wrote it up.
A cold front moved across the Champlain Valley of NY/VT during the afternoon of July 7th. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developed in the Champlain Valley of New York and then intensified as they crossed into Vermont. One storm produced very isolated winds near Westport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 7, 9:29 AM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1029 AM EDT Thu Jul 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A more active weather pattern is expected across the North Country over the next several days. A trough of low pressure moving across the North Country today will interact with the continued very warm and moderately humid air mass, producing scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with gusty winds, small hail, brief heavy downpours, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. After a quiet weather day on Friday, a stronger upper level disturbance moving eastward from the Great Lakes will bring additional showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for the early to middle portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1029 AM EDT Thursday...Previous forecast is in good shape for the remainder of the day but did opt to adjust pops for timing of anticipated convection. Current radar is showing basically nil precip over the forecast area, though some echos are noted north of the international border near Massena. Latest CAM models indicate convection won't get going here for another couple of hours, so adjusted pops accordingly. Temps remain on track to top out in the 80s area-wide with dewpoints in the mid 60s making it feel pretty muggy. Previous Discussion... At the surface, have synoptic surface trough and associated 1005mb sfc low across sern Ontario, with ewd extending quasi- stationary front across the nrn Adirondacks/central VT. Have some marine intrusion along the St. Lawrence River with N-NE flow in the Montreal Quebec area, and also some marine push across wrn/nrn NH this morning with cooler temps. May see some enhanced surface convergence with these boundaries this afternoon vcnty of the nrn Adirondacks and central/n-central VT providing a focus of convective development as temps climb into the low-mid 80s. At 10Z, regional composite reflectivity indicating some weak returns across the Adirondacks into the Champlain Valley, and can't rule out a few sprinkles this morning from the mid-cloud deck. Otherwise, will be watching as surface trough across the Ottawa Valley/sern Ontario shifts ewd into the North Country by 18Z this afternoon and interacts with aforementioned boundaries. While mid- clouds will limit surface heating this AM, still anticipate temps 83-87F early afternoon, along with low-mid 60s dewpoints. This will contribute to moderate SBCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg across most of the North Country, and 00z NAM model soundings suggest minimal CINH. Flow regime aloft is weakly cyclonic with slight height falls this afternoon, and should be supportive of weak ascent conducive for UVV and shower/thunderstorm development. So, anticipate a gradual increase in coverage of thunderstorm activity with peak daytime heating this afternoon, consistent with NAM-4km and BTV-4km WRF runs. In terms of severe threat, in addition to moderate instability, sfc-6km bulk shear expected to range from 25-30kts, which should support a few longer-lived storms. Lapse rates are fairly marginal (around 6 c/km 700-500mb layer) and WBZ heights are generally above 11kft. Thus, expect hail will generally be sub-severe in nature. Precipitable Water values of 1.6-1.7" support some locally heavy downpours and localized wet microbursts could reach severe limits (gusts to 60mph), so will need to monitor for elevated reflectivity cores this afternoon with more intense updrafts. Continued to carry small hail, gusty wind, and heavy rainfall wording in the official forecast, and included isolated threat of damaging wind wording in this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO). In terms of QPF, generally 0.25-0.50", but locally higher amounts possible with stronger thunderstorm activity. It appears based on very high resolution mesoscale models that convective activity will shift east of the CT river valley with prevailing WNWLY deep-layer flow while diminishing in intensity with loss of daytime heating 00-03Z Friday time frame. Have shown decreasing PoPs overnight with potential fog formation in the favored river valleys, especially in any areas seeing heavier rainfall. Tonight's lows generally in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 405 AM EDT Thursday...Friday stays mostly dry as models continue to show the area in between systems. In the afternoon, southern areas may see a few showers/thunderstorms pop up as low level lapse rates near 8C/km. Great Lakes surface low pressure system will progress eastward, bringing warm air advection and associated showers & thunderstorms to the North Country Friday evening into early Saturday. Associated 500mb flow puts the region in diffluent flow Saturday morning. Activity looks to increase as Saturday continues. CAPE values look to increase with negative Showalters, lifted indices of -2 to -4 and steepening lapse rates. PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches will likely result in showers/thunderstorms producing heavy rain at times. The surface low and its associated closed upper low will continue to affect the area Saturday night through Sunday night with clouds and precipitation. Could have some breaks in clouds during the day Sunday as the 500mb low traverses across the international border of the North Country and Quebec. Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s Friday will cool on Saturday by about 5 to 10 degrees with coolest areas across the Greens and areas east as effects of stable marine air flows in from the east. Temperatures continue the cooling trend on Sunday with maxes in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows follow a similar trend with 60s Friday night falling into the mid 50s to low 60s Saturday night and about 5 degrees cooler Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 405 AM EDT Thursday...Lingering showers possible Monday as 500mb trough continues to affect the region, but surface low departs north and east. Ridge of high pressure will build into the region at the surface and aloft for the middle of next week. This will result in dry and mostly clear conditions. Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to arrive Thursday. Below normal temperatures will recover early next week and continue to warm throughout mid-week to above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions expected through this morning with BKN-OVC mid level cloudiness. Getting some sprinkles/very light rain from this mid-level deck at SLK/BTV...but generally not expecting measurable rainfall this morning. Surface trough across the Ottawa Valley shifts ewd into the North Country this afternoon, and will serve as a focus for scattered shower/thunderstorm development. May see a few stronger storms during the afternoon into the early evening hours, with intervals of MVFR to IFR conditions possible at the TAF locations. Convective activity diminishes/shifts east of the region late this evening, with potential for fog formation MPV/SLK after 05Z with localized IFR possible for the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Outside of any thunderstorm activity, winds through the TAF period are expected to be light. Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday... 12z Fri - 00z Sat: VFR under brief high pressure. 00z Sat - 00z Mon: Upper level low approaching from the Great Lakes brings periods of MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. 00z Mon - 00z Tue: VFR under high pressure. && .EQUIPMENT... National Weather Service Doppler radar in Colchester, VT (KCXX) is down this morning due to a hardware failure, which began around 0330Z. Electronic technicians will diagnose this morning and then we'll have a better idea of a return to service time. Thanks for your patience. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...Banacos EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-080645- NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR- EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- 241 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SMALL HAIL, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY EXIT EAST OF VERMONT BY 9 TO 10 PM. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1229 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016
NYZ028-031-VTZ001-002-071730-
EASTERN CLINTON-WESTERN CLINTON-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
1229 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CLINTON...NORTHERN
GRAND ISLE AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
AT 1229 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR
MOOERS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...CHAZY...MOOERS...ALTONA...ROUSES POINT...SHELDON...
CHAMPLAIN...ISLE LA MOTTE...LAKE CARMI STATE PARK...ALBURGH...ALBURGH
DUNES STATE PARK...HIGHGATE FALLS...SOUTH ALBURGH...ELLENBURG
DEPOT...STONY POINT...ALLENS BAY IN GRAND ISLE COUNTY...REYNOLDS
POINT...GOOSE BAY...HOG ISLAND AND EAST ALBURGH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4501 7288 4488 7284 4480 7375 4500 7386
4502 7306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 259DEG 26KT 4492 7361
LAHIFFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees downed by thunderstorm winds on Worman Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 634894.