Heavy rainfall developed north of a stationary front and associated weak wave of low pressure located across central New Jersey on the evening of July 31st. With precipitable water values approaching 2 over the area, this resulted in isolated flash flooding across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall developed north of a stationary front and associated weak wave of low pressure located across central New Jersey on the evening of July 31st. With precipitable water values approaching 2 over the area, this resulted in isolated flash flooding across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 9:39 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1039 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front remains to the south and west of the region, and several waves of low pressure will ride along that front through Monday night. High pressure builds over the region Tuesday through Thursday, then moves offshore Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday and moves through Saturday night. High pressure builds to the west Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Forecast remains generally on track. A stationary front remains south and west of the local area, cutting through PA and central NJ. A weak area of low pressure lies on that boundary, centered over south-central NJ. Meanwhile, high pressure remains anchored over northern New England. In between those two systems, a persistent onshore flow is in place over the region. This continues to usher abundant moisture into the CWA, with PWATs over 2". POPs will gradually diminish to chance everywhere tonight. Some showers may produce locally heavy rain. With the precipitation slowly winding down, we are not anticipating any additional flash flood warnings, however flash flood advisories remain possible. Showers that develop over western areas will track east through tonight, and taper off towards daybreak. Lows will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled weather remains in place Monday. Upper trough digs into the Northeast, and several waves of low pressure will pass just south of the region. A continued warm and humid airmass remains over the area with surface dewpoints around 70, along with PWATs near 2". Based on latest model guidance, round of showers and thunderstorms will impact the area Monday afternoon through Monday evening, with activity impacting western areas in the afternoon, and then eastern areas through Monday night. Locally heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms remain possible. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long term period remains dominated by upper ridging centered over the central and southern United States while nearly zonal flow with progressive embedded shortwaves dominates along the US/Canadian border. Tuesday morning will feature one shortwave exiting the northeast coast as heights build to the west. Along the Pacific northwest the next wave to affect the northeast will be coming onshore Tuesday. Dry weather dominates later Tuesday into early Friday. Timing and general placement of the shortwave, surface low, and cold front remains similar to the previous forecast. As the upper ridge axis moves into the northeast Thursday night into Friday and the surface high shifts into the north Atlantic a deep southwest flow develops and brings warmer and more humid conditions back into the region. The rather vigorous shortwave tracks along the northern US, digging a trough into the upper midwest and Great Lakes by the end of the week. Deepening surface low pressure will send a cold front toward the area Friday into Saturday, with cold frontal passage either late day Saturday or Saturday night. Upper ridging builds once again Saturday night into Sunday as a surface high builds into the upper midwest. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Multiple waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary just south of the area through Monday. MVFR ceilings should prevail at city terminals, although some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR is likely. IFR to MVFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the terminals. Widespread IFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the overnight and into Monday morning. Conditions slowly improve Monday afternoon. Confidence in timing and placement of showers overnight is low. Any shower that occurs could drop visibilities to MVFR/IFR, and could lower ceilings and contain heavy rain. ESE flow expected through today, then backing to the E tonight. Generally 10-15 kt through this evening, diminishing under 10 kt overnight. Additional showers are possible Monday afternoon, however confidence is low on timing and placement. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday Night...Chance of showers and possibly a tstm. MVFR or lower conditions possible. .Tuesday...Mainly VFR, although isolated showers are possible in the morning. .Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. .Friday...chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sub-VFR possible. && .MARINE... A stationary front remains to the west of the waters. Several waves of low pressure will pass through the waters through Monday night, resulting in periods of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. The pressure gradient will remain light enough for winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below small craft advisory levels Tuesday and into Friday, as a wave of low pressure moves east of the waters Tuesday morning and high pressure builds over the waters through Thursday. As the high moves offshore Thursday night into Friday and a cold front approaches from the northwest, southwest flow will increase across the forecast waters. This flow will persist until the cold frontal passage Saturday night. Wind gusts, especially on the ocean waters may approach small craft levels at times, and ocean seas may build to near 5 feet by late Friday or Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Basin average rainfall totals tonight will range from 1/2 inch to 1 inch with locally higher amounts possible. An additional 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch of rain is then expected Monday through Monday night, with the highest totals in the Lower Hudson Valley. Dry weather returns around midday Tuesday and continues into Friday morning. Up to an inch of rainfall is possible in showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...BC/MPS SHORT TERM...MPS LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...BC MARINE...MPS/MET HYDROLOGY...MPS/MET
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-012200- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-012200- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 317 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
927 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
NJZ006-104-NYZ072-073-075-176-178-010215-
HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-BRONX-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
927 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN...HUDSON...
KINGS...QUEENS...NEW YORK AND BRONX COUNTIES...
AT 927 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER UPPER WEST
SIDE...OR OVER NEW YORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PALISADES PARK... CLIFFSIDE
PARK...LINCOLN CENTER...WASHINGTON HEIGHTS...CARLSTADT...
WOODSIDE...GREENWICH VILLAGE...WEEHAWKEN...EDGEWATER AND LITTLE
FERRY.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
LAT...LON 4055 7395 4057 7394 4056 7398 4065 7404
4066 7403 4068 7403 4069 7402 4070 7403
4068 7404 4068 7406 4067 7406 4078 7414
4090 7397 4073 7370 4072 7373 4065 7372
4065 7374 4064 7374 4054 7394
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 317DEG 17KT 4079 7400PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
943 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 PM FLASH FLOOD WAYNE 40.95N 74.25W
07/31/2016 PASSAIC NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT
FLOODING INSIDE THE SCHUYLER COLFAX MIDDLE SCHOOL.
&&
FEBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0943 PM FLASH FLOOD WAYNE 40.95N 74.25W
07/31/2016 PASSAIC NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER RESCUE WITH THREE OCCUPANTS IN CAR AT VALLEY ROAD
NEAR JUDITH PLACE
&&
FEBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1006 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1001 PM FLASH FLOOD LYNDHURST 40.80N 74.11W
07/31/2016 BERGEN NJ SOCIAL MEDIA
ORIENT WAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN NEW JERSEY
AVENUE AND PAGE AVENUE.
&&
FEBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1020 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1008 PM FLASH FLOOD RUTHERFORD 40.82N 74.11W
07/31/2016 BERGEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT
RIVERSIDE AVENUE AT WEST PIERREPONT AVENUE FLOODED.
REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
&&
FEBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM FLASH FLOOD WANAQUE 41.04N 74.29W
07/31/2016 PASSAIC NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
THE BRIDGE NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF WILSON DRIVE
AND CONKLINTOWN ROAD WAS OVERTOPPED BY FLOOD WATERS FROM
GREEN SWAMP BROOK.
&&
FEBThe Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 103 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:36 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several cars were partially submerged due to flooding on East Church Street in Spring Valley.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652940.