Moderate to strong instability coupled with a surface trough and disturbance aloft produced afternoon and evening scattered to numerous storms. Some of these storms became severe and produced damaging winds, as well as very heavy rain and localized flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Moderate to strong instability coupled with a surface trough and disturbance aloft produced afternoon and evening scattered to numerous storms. Some of these storms became severe and produced damaging winds, as well as very heavy rain and localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 2:30 PM EST, 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will push east, from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states Monday. A surface trough will strengthen over central North Carolina this afternoon and evening, then drift into the Coastal Plain later Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sunday... Strong daytime heating within the moist 1.7-2.2" PWAT airmass in place east of the baggy trough approaching slowly from the west will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A weak shear axis moving eastward across Central NC will also provide some weak support, but otherwise storms should be diurnally driven. Moderate instability of 2000-2500 of MLCAPE coupled with deep layer shear of 15 to 20kts could support an isolated strong to severe storms, capable of producing an isolated wet downburst. Additionally, given the high moisture content, localized flooding will also be possible. Lows overnight in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /Monday and Monday night/... As of 330 PM Sunday... Mid/upper level trough will move slowly east-southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States late Monday. Nwly flow in the wake of the upper trough passage is expected to push the weak surface front/trough east towards the coast by daybreak Tuesday. PWATS will remain high(1.7-2.2")ahead of the trough. Near sfc moisture convergence along the eastward moving surface front/trough and strong daytime heating will support high chance to likely pops. Thermodynamic environment will be very similar to today with moderate buoyancy and weak 15 to 20kt of deep layer shear supportive of an isolated severe threat/wet downburst. Not as warm as previous days, owing to increase cloud cover and high rain chances. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, highly dependent on convective evolution. Storms could linger longer into the evening and overnight hours, especially across eastern areas invof of the surface trough/front, but eventually drier air should advect into the area from the west ending rain chances. Lows 70 to 75. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 252 PM Sunday... On Tuesday, the longwave trough axis will shift to our east, followed by drier northerly flow in its wake, as indicated by pwats falling from from 1.8 inches Tue morning to around 1.25 inches by Tue afternoon. Sfc dwpts are progged to drop below 70 for areas west of I-95 during this time as well. This relatively drier pattern will continue through the mid-week period, so look for pops at or below climo during this time, along with near seasonable temps. Temps and humidity will gradually increase again during the late- week period and into next weekend as the sfc ridge axis shifts to our east and s-sw low level flow becomes re-established across our area. However, guidance suggest pops will remain below climo given the mid/upr ridge centered just to our west and the absence of any well-defined lifting mechanisms. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday through Friday/... As of 200 PM Sunday... 24-Hour TAF period: Strong daytime heating within a moist airmass will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will reduce CIGS and VSBYS into the MVFR/IFR categories, otherwise expect generally VFR conditions with light swly winds. Scattered to numerous storms are expected again Monday afternoon. Outlook: Sub-VFR restrictions will occur primarily with isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/early evening. Patchy early morning fog will also be possible. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-010800- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 358 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF RALEIGH. THIS INCLUDES FAYETTEVILLE... GOLDSBORO... WILSON... ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS... WHERE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 TO 103 WILL OCCUR. CONTINUED CAUTION IS ADVISED TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID- EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED... MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HEAT INDICES INCREASE. PWB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
NCZ077-088-312030-
CUMBERLAND NC-HARNETT NC-
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...
AT 346 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
POPE AFB...OR NEAR FORT BRAGG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT BRAGG...POPE AFB...SPRING LAKE...EASTOVER...
WADE...LINDEN...BONNIE DOONE...ANDERSON CREEK AND TIMBERLAKE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
50 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL OR WEAKENED TREES AND
BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER
LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3507 7909 3516 7911 3517 7910 3519 7910
3520 7911 3525 7912 3535 7873 3508 7868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 262DEG 19KT 3518 7904
GIHSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
NCZ041-042-312100-
JOHNSTON NC-WAKE NC-
407 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF JOHNSTON AND
SOUTHERN WAKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
AT 406 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CLAYTON...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM IS DEVEOLPING OVER HOLLY SPRINGS, ALSO MOVING
EAST.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...CLAYTON...
APEX...HOLLY SPRINGS...KNIGHTDALE AND MICRO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
&&
LAT...LON 3544 7815 3540 7858 3552 7869 3561 7900
3575 7894 3581 7826 3577 7825 3573 7821
3571 7816 3561 7813 3558 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 264DEG 19KT 3563 7850
10SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
NCZ028-312115-
EDGECOMBE NC-
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EDGECOMBE COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...
AT 414 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKY MOUNT...TARBORO...PRINCEVILLE...SHARPSBURG...PINETOPS...
WHITAKERS...MACCLESFIELD...CONETOE...SPEED AND LEGGETT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
&&
LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7747
3568 7766 3573 7772 3583 7775 3587 7783
3615 7770 3615 7768 3611 7762 3609 7753
3606 7754 3605 7753 3604 7753 3604 7747
3600 7743 3601 7741 3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 263DEG 15KT 3589 7770
10The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 35 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:20 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 5 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees were reported down on Mamie Upchurch Road.
Trees were reported down along United States Highway 421, northwest of Clinton.
Trees were reported down on Harmony Church Road.
Numerous trees were reported down across Oak Grove Church Road and Mebane Oaks Road.
One tree was reported down on North Carolina Highway 86.
Oak Grove Church Road was closed due to high water.
Trees were reported down in southern Thomasville.
One tree was reported down across Cunningham Road, southwest of Thomasville.
One tree was reported down at Sullivan Road and Cunningham Road.
One tree was reported down across Sullivan Road and Carter Road.
Bradshaw Quarry Road was reported closed due to high water.
Trees were reported down on Ebenezer Road on the southeast side of Jordan Lake.
Flooding was reported near the intersection of Lee Road and North Carolina Highway 109, and along Light Road. In addition a water rescue was reported at the 1100 block of Lee Road.
Carpenter Road was reported to be washed out.
Glenn Road was reported washed out in the 3100 block.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 650383, 650382, 650280, 650272, 650278, 651231, 650270, 650273, 650274, 650276, 651232, 647872, 650385, 651233, 651234.