A warm and unstable air mass was in place over eastern New York ahead of an advancing cold front on Monday, July 18th. Short lines of thunderstorms developed during the early afternoon hours and moved eastward across the region.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
A warm and unstable air mass was in place over eastern New York ahead of an advancing cold front on Monday, July 18th. Short lines of thunderstorms developed during the early afternoon hours and moved eastward across the region. Some of these thunderstorms became severe, producing damaging wind gusts to trees and power lines. Thunderstorms ended with the passage of the cold front during the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 9:53 AM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 1053 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today ahead of a cold front. Cooler and less humid conditions are expected Tuesday...which will last into the mid week with high pressure in control. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1053 Am...Current radar loop shows Albany Forecast area is echo free. We continue to watch storms in western New York which will move east and impact our area mainly this afternoon. Still looks like an active severe weather day. Quite an impressive upper level jet max of 110 knots on BUF 12Z sounding. ALY forecast are will come under right entrance region of this jet max later today. Also, some isolated cells will likely develop ahead of the main cluster of storms to our west over mid Hudson Valley and western MA/CT as atmosphere heats up from sunshine. Minor adjustments to Clouds/POPs/WX based on current weather and latest HRRR run. Previous... There is a severe weather potential today...as the forecast area becomes increasingly more warm...humid...and unstable. Sfc dewpts should increase well into the 60's in the warm sector with the deep 0-6 km bulk shear increasing to 35-45+ kts north of the I-90 corridor in the late morning into the early pm...and then expanding south across southern NY including the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT. The NAM and GFS are a bit out of sync on how much cooling occurs aloft in terms of the mid-level lapse rates. The GFS has good/favorable lapse rates in the 700-500 hpa and 850-500 hPa layers of 6.5-7+C/km...while the NAM is more in the 6-6.5C/km range which will make a difference in the mode and strength of convection /for example what happened THU of last week/. The SBCAPEs are generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg with slightly higher pockets today. The better chance of any discrete supercells looks to be in the mid afternoon where more heating might occur and when the deep shear start to increase to 35-40 kts there. The shear aligns quickly in the 850-500 hPa layer favoring linear clusters with damaging winds the main threat. If more instability is realized...then some hail is possible. The low- level jet is not overly impressive...though with any line or perhaps QLCS segments...an isolated weak spin-up tornado is possible. The bottom line is bowing segments...and damaging winds of 50 kts or greater is likely the main threat with hail the size of quarters or greater the secondary threat if taller updrafts are realized. The other complicating factor is that the convection may fire very quickly north and west of the Capital Region and the I-90 corridor. The HRRR and the NCEP 4-km WRF-NMM for SPC composite reflectivity runs have the showers and thunderstorms firing quickly north and west of the Capital District between 15Z-17Z /11 am-1 pm/. The cluster of convection quickly moves over the rest of the fcst area between 17Z-20Z /1-4 pm/. Another line may form ahead of the cold front for the mid to late afternoon ahead of the main cold front...if the atmosphere can destabilize again. It does look like a strong line could impact the Capital Region...Berkshires...and eastern Catskills south if the NCEP WRF is right. Overall...mentioned some storms maybe severe in the grids which is in agreement with the latest SPC Day 1 Slight Risk. Localized heavy rainfall is possible with any convection as PWATS rise to 1.25-1.75 inches...but the storms should be moving along pretty well due to the stronger mid and upper level flow aloft. Highs will range from the mid 80s to near 90F in the major river Valleys...and mid 70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tonight...the cold front will still be making steady progress across central and eastern NY in the late afternoon into the early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible and we included that some may be severe wording in the forecast grids until 8 pm. The right entrance region of a strong upper level jet streak will be moving over southern NY and southwest New England by 00Z/TUE. The guidance really shrivels the showers and thunderstorm activity towards midnight...as drier air filters in. The winds will shift to the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph...as the strong low level cold advection moves in. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s outside the Capital District...mid Hudson Valley...southern Taconics...and NW CT where 60-65F readings are likely. Tuesday...In the broad cyclonic flow aloft...the upper level trough axis will need to clear the fcst area. Some instability cumulus will be possible with the cold pool passing north of the region. The best chance of an isolated showers will be near the Lake George Region...and southern VT. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s in the valley areas...and mid 60s to lower 70s over the mountains. Humidity levels will be much more comfortable with dewpts falling into the 40s to lower 50s. Tue night...High pressure builds in from the eastern Great Lakes Region over NY and New England with clear skies...and light to calm winds. An ideal radiational cooling night with lows falling into 50s with some mid and upper 40s over the Adirondacks...and Catskills. Wed-Wed night...The fair and dry weather continues with the sfc anticyclone in control during the day...and the mid level heights start to increase at night...as the high drifts south and east of the region. Temps will be seasonable for late July with pleasant humidity levels continuing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Heat and humid build as we head into the weekend with oppressive conditions expected to develop. At this time, the hottest day is expected to be Saturday. Guidance is in general agreement the CONUS should be dominated by ridging centered over the Southern Plains for the latter part of the week with the ridge weakening and shifting westward toward California over the weekend. Across the Northeast short wave troughs will move across the region. There are some differences with the timing of the individual pieces of energy though which is typical for this time frame. The heat is expected to expand eastward with 850 mb temperatures climbing through the teens and reaching into the low 20s through the period. Here is the range of forecast highs across the forecast area each day: Thursday upper 70s to upper 80s; Friday lower 80s to lower 90s; Saturday lower 80s to mid 90s and Sunday upper 70s to lower 90s. In addition to the heat, humidity levels will also climb. Initially dew points are expected to start out at comfortable levels Thursday morning mainly in the 50s. However, values are expected to rise into mid to upper 60s for the weekend. The combination of the heat and humidity will lead to extremely dangerous heat conditions. Heat indices are forecast to be in the mid/upper 90s with around 100 possible in the mid Hudson Valley Saturday based on the current forecast. Have included mention in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. The nights will be very muggy. As for chances for showers and thunderstorms have them in the forecast for mainly Friday through Sunday. There will be a break in the convection between short wave trough and based on the latest guidance expect this to occur Saturday in the morning. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Clouds will be on the increase with VFR conditions expected to prevail. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the local area as a pre-frontal trough develops ahead of an approaching cold front in the warm sector of a low pressure system. The TEMPO group in each TAF indicates the time frame of highest confidence that thunderstorms are expected to impact that location. The Storm Prediction Center does have the region under the SLIGHT risk for severe storms. The greatest threat is for strong/damaging winds which have addressed with the VRB winds in TEMPO group. MVFR conditions are expected with the storms with brief IFR conditions which are not included in TAFs. With the passage of the pre-frontal trough chances for storms diminishes. Some MVFR fog may develop at KPSF overnight. A southerly flow will increase shifting to the southwest during the day. Gusts in the teens to lower 20s are expected. Winds will shift to the west with the passage of the pre-frontal trough late in the day into the evening then to the northwest overnight with the passage of the cold front. Outlook... Tue Night-Thu: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thu Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Fri Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm front will move north of the region this morning...as a cold front will approach from the eastern Great Lakes Region for the afternoon into this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of the cold front. Cooler and less humid conditions will return Tuesday...and will last into the mid week with high pressure in control. The RH values will lower to 45 to 60 percent this afternoon...and then increase to 85 to 100 percent tonight...before dropping off to 30 to 45 percent Tuesday afternoon. The winds will be from the south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts around 30 mph...and then will shift to the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph tonight. The winds will be north to northwest at 5 to 10 mph on Tuesday. Most locations will receive a quarter to half an inch of rainfall from the showers and thunderstorms today...with some locally higher amounts. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydro problems are expected on the main stem rivers the next 5 days ending Friday. Shower and thunderstorms are expected today as cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region and pre-frontal trough develops along with the approach of a short wave. In addition, elevated precipitable water values are still forecasted in the 1.25-1.75 inch range, so the storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Some minor urban flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas would be possible. Areas of the Catskills and mid Hudson Valley, that have received a benefit of recent rainfall, would be the most susceptible area at this time. Overall...basin average rainfall amounts will be in the quarter to three quarters of an inch range. Fair weather is then expected Tuesday until late in week. Our next chances for some showers and thunderstorms will come on Friday and head into the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula NEAR TERM...SND SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA/SND FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 831 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-191100- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE- WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 831 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...EASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER...AND LARGE HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1034 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 082>084-VTZ013>015-181700- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA- WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON- WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...GAYLORDSVILLE... NEW MILFORD...TERRYVILLE...THOMASTON...DALTON...HANCOCK... PITTSFIELD...FLORIDA...NORTH ADAMS...SANDISFIELD... GREAT BARRINGTON...SOUTH EGREMONT...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY... MCKEEVER...OLD FORGE...ATWELL...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... LONG LAKE...SABATTIS...HOFFMEISTER...WELLS...ILION...HERKIMER... LITTLE FALLS...MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE... JOHNSTOWN...AMSTERDAM...SARATOGA LAKE...SARATOGA SPRINGS... BOLTON LANDING...JOHNSBURG...NORTH CREEK...NORTH RIVER... WARRENSBURG...HAGUE...HULETTS LANDING...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE... COBLESKILL...BREAKABEEN...GILBOA...LIVINGSTONVILLE... MIDDLEBURGH...NORTH BLENHEIM...JEFFERSON...MARIAVILLE... DELANSON...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BURNT HILLS... BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...CLIFTON PARK...WATERFORD... WESTERLO...ALTAMONT...BERNE...KNOX...PRESTON HOLLOW...ALBANY... TROY...BERLIN...EAGLE BRIDGE...HOOSICK FALLS...STEPHENTOWN... HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...PRATTSVILLE...CATSKILL... COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON... NEW LEBANON...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY... WEST SHOKAN...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...SUNDOWN...KINGSTON... NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING... WINGDALE...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...STANFORDVILLE... PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...CAROGA LAKE...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE... GREENWICH...MIDDLE FALLS...NORTH EASTON...STAMFORD...BENNINGTON... WOODFORD STATE PARK...POWNAL...STRATTON...LONDONDERRY... BRATTLEBORO...GUILFORD CENTER...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 1034 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE NOON HOUR THEN TRACK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IMPACTS INCLUDE DOWN TREE OR TREE LIMBS WHICH MAY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. LASTLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED. REMEMBER, LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE AS FAR AWAY AS 10 MILES FROM A THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE BY KEEPING A WATCH TO THE SKY AND LISTEN FOR YOUR LATEST FORECAST FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THROUGH OUR MEDIA PARTNERS. IF THUNDER ROARS...HEAD INDOORS OR SEE A FLASH...DASH INSIDE. IF YOU SEE FLOODING, BE SURE TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.
The Albany radar (KENX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:06 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was downed near Richmondville due to thunderstorm winds.
A tree was downed at the intersection of County Route 402 and County Rote 405 in Westerlo due to thunderstorm winds.
Large tree limbs and power lines were downed on Richardson Street in Queensbury near the Feeder Canal dam due to thunderstorm winds.
Trees and wires were reported down on Mountain Road in the town of Moreau due to thunderstorm winds.
Trees and wires were reported down on Harrison Avenue in the town of Moreau due to thunderstorm winds.
Trees and wires were reported down on Reservoir Road in the town of Moreau due to thunderstorm winds.
Power lines were reported down on County Route 32 (Dix Avenue) in Hudson Falls due to thunderstorm winds.
Power lines were downed on Route 43 in Stephentown due to thunderstorm winds.
Trees and wires were reported down on County Route 49 in Argyle due to thunderstorm winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 639249, 639250, 639252, 639253, 639261, 639262, 639264, 639265, 639266.