High Wind in Montana, November 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
244 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon through Tuesday...A shortwave trough with an
associated cold front will continue to move through the forecast
area through early this evening. Westerly winds are gusting over
20 mph in Southwest Montana as of this afternoon, but gusts of 35
to 45 mph are common across North Central Montana. However, as the
shortwave/front system moves out of the area, winds will decrease
significantly through this evening, allowing overnight lows to
fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s. High pressure aloft will build
back into the area for Monday through Tuesday, bringing warming
temperatures and lighter winds. A disturbance will bring some
clouds to the area on Monday, but skies will otherwise be clear
with no significant chance of precipitation. The clouds will keep
temperatures mostly in the 50s on Monday, but Monday night's lows
will mostly be in the 30s to lower 40s, with highs on Tuesday
warming into the upper 50s to mid 60s once again.  Coulston

Tuesday night through Sunday...Medium range models remain in good
agreement that Montana will be under an upper level ridge Tuesday
night. Shortwave energy is still expected to move through the
ridge Wednesday/Wednesday night for a short-lived increase in
wind speeds but no precipitation. A weak cool front will likely
drift south of the Canadian border as this system passes by, but
temperatures will still remain well above seasonal averages. The
upper ridge will rebound for continued dry conditions Thursday
and Friday before additional upper level energy sweeps through
the area next weekend. Model solutions are still not in full
agreement but it appears that enough Pacific moisture will move
inland for a return to orographic precipitation over the
Continental Divide. The chance for showers over lower elevations
appears more problematic but have continued to trend forecast
PoPs toward the not-as-dry ECMWF solution. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1800Z.

The main concern during this TAF cycle will be gusty SW/W winds
in the wake of a Pacific cold front that will be moving through
today. The wind has already begun to increase at this hour across
much of central Montana and the wind should increase at all
terminals this afternoon before diminishing this evening.
Precipitation moving into western Montana at this time is not
expected to make it east of the Continental Divide due to
downsloping/dry conditions. Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  35  58  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  31  54  40  64 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  33  56  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  32  56  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  28  48  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  32  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  35  55  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  33  57  40  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

weather.gov/greatfalls

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MST SUN NOV 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST          48.96N 111.94W
11/06/2016  M52 MPH          TOOLE              MT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WIND GUST DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COLD FRONT
            PASSAGE

&&

MARTIN