A series of upper level short wave troughs moved through the long wave pattern and produced thunderstorms across South Central Texas. A very moist boundary layer allowed some of these storms to produce heavy rain that led to some minor flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A series of upper level short wave troughs moved through the long wave pattern and produced thunderstorms across South Central Texas. A very moist boundary layer allowed some of these storms to produce heavy rain that led to some minor flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 6, 1:03 PM CST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2016 .UPDATE... Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below. && .AVIATION... Radar trends continue to show convection on the increase across most areas. Given current radar and the 00Z NSSL WRF guidance, we will include Tempo groups for TSRA along the I-35 corridor this afternoon, mainly between 20Z-24Z. Some light showers could persist through this evening and overnight as cigs lower into MVFR around 06Z. Cigs are then expected to lower into IFR along I-35 by early tomorrow morning between 09Z-10Z. We could also see another round of active weather late tonight into early tomorrow morning and have mentioned Prob30 groups for our I-35 TAF sites. For DRT, light shower activity should persist through 20Z. We will also need to monitor for possible convection developing west of the Rio Grande as skies are showing some clearing. For now, confidence is not high enough to mention in the forecast just yet. Cigs are expected to recover into VFR by late afternoon, then drop into IFR overnight beginning around 09Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ AVIATION... Aviation forecast remains quite tricky. CIGs have been bouncing around and are currently MVFR in Austin and San Antonio and IFR at DRT. Will see low CIGs through the morning. Showers will develop this morning and continue through the day. CIGs will become VFR this afternoon and drop again overnight. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2016/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)... An upper level trough over the southern/central Rockies will drift into the High Plains by this evening and across the Plains tonight and Monday. A series of mid level impulses rotate through this trough to provide upward forcing while the left exit region of the upper level jet provides diffluent flow aloft. Bands/periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected. A moist airmass with above normal early November PWs of 1.3 to 1.6 inches over South Central Texas is expected to linger with a fetch extending back to south of Hawaii. This unseasonably moist airmass and some training of rain cells makes locally heavy rains possible and WPC has eastern parts of the Hill Country and South Central Texas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and Monday. The highest POPs are across the eastern areas of South Central Texas where the deepest moisture and strongest upward forcing are expected. LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... A piece of energy dropping down the back side of the trough will carve out another upper level low/trough from southern Plains into Northwestern Mexico mid to late week. The models/ensembles continue to have consistency and consensus issues regarding the pattern evolution aloft. Rain chances continue mid to late week, however, they are currently expected to slowly decrease due to a surface ridge building into South Central Texas bringing drier lower level air into our area. Although, the most recent runs of the models have increased mid level moisture and rain chances for late week into next weekend, will hold off on this trend to await consistency in the models. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 62 74 61 72 / 70 70 60 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 63 75 60 73 / 70 70 60 40 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 63 76 61 74 / 80 60 50 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 70 61 71 59 70 / 70 70 60 40 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 65 77 62 73 / 40 30 30 40 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 61 72 60 71 / 70 70 60 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 75 64 77 62 75 / 70 40 40 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 63 75 61 74 / 80 60 50 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 64 76 60 74 / 70 70 60 40 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 64 77 63 75 / 70 50 50 40 40 Stinson Muni Airport 75 64 78 64 75 / 70 50 40 40 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Mesoscale/Aviation...24 Synoptic/Grids...TB3 Public Service/Data Collection...30
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1258 PM CST SUN NOV 6 2016 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071900- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 1258 PM CST SUN NOV 6 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE GREATEST. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... PLEASE RELAY SPOTTER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ANY FLOODING OBSERVED. TB3
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused minor flooding sending water over the road at the intersection of CR340 and CR340A east of Hamilton Creek.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused minor flooding closing FM1100 between Elgin and Hwy 290. The west bound lane of Hwy 290 west of Elgin was also closed due to water over the road.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused minor flooding sending water through a camping area at the Sound on Sound Festival on Old Hwy 20 northwest of Paige.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664225, 664227, 664230.