Numerous showers and thunderstorms occurred ahead of a slow-moving cold front over central Missouri and central Illinois. A southwest wind flow of very moist air ahead of the front contributed to locally heavy downpours and minor flooding.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms occurred ahead of a slow-moving cold front over central Missouri and central Illinois. A southwest wind flow of very moist air ahead of the front contributed to locally heavy downpours and minor flooding. Precipitable water values were around 1.75 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 1, 11:41 AM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016 Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm anywhere across the region this afternoon, but latest satellite and radar imagery indicates that the best coverage is likely to be over southeast Missouri and possibly into southern Illinois. Of concern is the fact that most guidance veers the winds to nearly due west ahead of the weak cold front, which should limit convergence. Figure most showers and storms will be short-lived this afternoon. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016 A weak cold front will move into the area today accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity. In its wake, we should see a lull tonight. Question then becomes, from Thursday into Friday, where to draw the northward extent line of potential convection. Given there seems to be more influence by the mid trop flow across the northern 1/2 of the nation, will reduce PoPs across the north as drier air works in. Will keep chance PoPs southern sections going. By late Friday into Friday night, the southern Plains H5 low should have enough influence as it moves east to advect moisture NE over the whole area. We used an across the board model blend for weather, and a MOS/Previous numbers blend for temps. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016 After a cold front passage on Saturday night, most of the long term period will feature lots of dry air and pleasant temps. The models are in good agreement on the formation of a deep closed low over the Great Lakes region this weekend, which will result in dry northwest flow early next week. As far as the details... Saturday will likely be wet for much of the area. An amplifying 500 mb trough will migrate eastward into the western Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low will deepen over the western Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms should become rather numerous along and ahead of the trailing cold front. Clouds and precip will hinder temps from climbing much above 80. Weak instability ahead of the front may be a limiting factor for storm intensity, especially if the 00z gfs is correct. Could not rule out a few severe storms in the afternoon if the 00z ecmwf capes and shear profiles pan out. The trailing front will likely move through our region on Saturday night, followed by a decreasing trend in precip coverage. Some lingering showers or storms are possible early Sunday as the front exits to our east. This will be followed by lots of clear sky late in the weekend through early next week as dry high pressure builds in behind the front. Diurnal cumulus clouds are likely each afternoon Monday through Tuesday, especially in southwest Indiana, which will be closer to the upper low. A few diurnally induced showers could not be ruled out in southwest Indiana each afternoon. High temps in the post-frontal air mass will range from the upper 70s in southwest Indiana to lower 80s in southeast Missouri each day. Dew points and overnight lows will be noticeably lower, generally in the upper 50s for most areas. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2016 Given the lack of a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, figure coverage outside of Missouri will be small. Decided to keep KEVV and KOWB dry, as winds quickly veer to west this afternoon. Went with VFR TS in a TEMPO group at KCGI and KPAH given the latest radar imagery. However, coverage could be an issue there as well. Guidance is strongly hinting at MVFR visibilities in fog late tonight, but mid-level ceilings should keep that from happening, even if a terminal gets wet this afternoon. As a weak wind shift pushes south of the entire by morning, some scattered showers will be possible late tonight and especially in the morning. Not sure about the impact, so just kept it VFR at KCGI and KPAH for now. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DRS AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 403 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-021000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 403 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AREA WIDE, AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported 3.25 inches of rain fell in 90 minutes. Creeks were out of their banks.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 636010.