Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 5, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
350 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

At 330 PM, skies were mostly cloudy across northeast Minnesota,
while it was mostly sunny across northwest Wisconsin and portions
of far northeast Minnesota. Temperatures were generally in the
80s, with the highest temps at 3 pm being 88 degrees. Two Harbors
had the highest heat index value in our CWA at 94 degrees.

The main focus for tonight will be the potential for severe
thunderstorms. Ongoing severe thunderstorms over west central
Minnesota at this time. The consensus of the CAM's has been to
continue development in this area, with discrete cells gradually
morphing into a squall line that will push eastward across central
Minnesota. A tornado watch was recently issued for areas just
south of our southwest, and we may see another watch issued for
points east and potentially a bit north yet this afternoon or
early evening. The chances are increasing for a big wind event,
especially south of our CWA, but possibly including portions of
our southern CWA. Other showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the remainder of northeastern Minnesota, and there could
potentially be some isolated severe storms.

The showers and thunderstorms will then move east out of the area
as the night wears on, leaving a bit of a reprieve on Wednesday.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

By Wednesday the northland will be in a short lull between systems
until another Central Plains low develops and moves toward the
area.

First low, the upper level pattern will become more amplified with
the British Columbia trof digging into the pacific northwest then
scoot along the international border through the rest of the week.
In the meantime, a warm frontal boundary will set up across
Missouri Wednesday night then it will push north and into MN and
WI Thursday. With strong warm air advection across the front,
there will be an increasing chance of rain late Wednesday night
and Thursday. By Thursday Night and Friday we are seeing a couple
different solutions at the surface with the NAM bring the warm
front north through northern WI and into the Arrowhead while the
GFS and ECMWF are more progressive with the system and swing it
straight east and over Lake Michigan by Friday afternoon. Based on
the fairly progressive upper air pattern, think leaning toward the
latter two. However, with the sfc low over Lake Michigan and the
upper low over MN the northland will still be in some good
cyclonic flow. This will keep the chances of rain going until
later Friday night and Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will
bring a relatively dry weekend, then back to rain chances early in
the next work week as another closed upper low advances from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the region this afternoon, but
thunderstorms will develop across northern MN later this
afternoon ahead of a very strong cold front. The storms will then
move into northern WI early this evening. Some of the storms
could cause widespread dangerously strong winds and hail. There
could be some light fog early in the morning after the storms move
out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  81  59  66 /  50   0  10  30
INL  55  81  56  77 /  40  10  10  50
BRD  59  81  61  76 /  50  10  30  60
HYR  62  82  59  78 /  70  10  10  50
ASX  61  82  58  72 /  70  10   0  40

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...clc

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061145-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
120 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

LSZ121-140>148-061145-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
120 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY RESULT IN BUILDING WAVES...LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
445 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

MNZ018-025-052200-
NORTH CASS-NORTH ITASCA-
445 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN ITASCA COUNTIES...

AT 444 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAVINIA...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF BEMIDJI...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SQUAW LAKE...LAKE WINNIBIGOSHISH...CASS LAKE...DECKER LAKE...SCHLEY...
DIXON LAKE AND ROSY.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4741 9442 4769 9442 4773 9407
      4736 9409 4735 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 267DEG 40KT 4752 9472

 MILLER