An upper disturbance from Manitoba moving across Lake Superior generated moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow over portions of west and central Upper Michigan from late on the 2nd through the morning of the 4th.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
An upper disturbance from Manitoba moving across Lake Superior generated moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow over portions of west and central Upper Michigan from late on the 2nd through the morning of the 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 6:50 PM EST, 3 hours 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 650 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER OREGON...A CLOSED LOW OVER NW KS AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WHICH SHOWS UP AS DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR AND THIS SHORTWAVE IS HEADED SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE COOLING ALOFT...WILL KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. NAM AND GFS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -16C LATE TONIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES BEING AROUND 4C...THIS IS ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH A LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T OF 20C. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NNW AND EXPECT A DOMINANT BAND TO SET UP FROM CONVERGENCE AND LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE OVER ERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY AND THINGS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FEELING IS BASED ON WIND DIRECTION CHANGES...THE DOMINANT BAND WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH AND NOT STAY IN AN AREA TOO LONG. GOING FORECAST HAD THIS IDEA ALREADY IN THERE AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO HIT THEM HIGHER ACROSS ERN MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES ALONG WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS THERE. WILL BE GOING WITH A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 349 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SUN NIGHT AND WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE ON FRI... EXPECT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND COLD AIR OVER EASTERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS TO BEGIN THE WEEK. PRIMARY ISSUE SUN NIGHT WILL BE LAKE EFFECT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND H85 TEMPS LOWER THAN -15C. SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SUN EVENING LEADING TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ON SUN EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BOOSTING INVERSIONS UP TO 7 TO 10KFT AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING LAKE INDUCED TROUGH FM LK ERIE TO LK SUPERIOR. MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN WILL RESIDE AS PERIOD OF STRONGEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH CONTINUAL CONNECTION OFF OF LK NIPEGON. GIVEN THE NNW SFC WINDS AND N-NNE 925-850MB WINDS...EXPECT FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE GOING TO BE POSSIBLE BENEATH THIS HEAVY SNOW BAND. LAKE EFFECT WILL ALSO BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK CONVERGENCE COMPARED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER INVERSIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS. AWAY FM THE LAKE EFFECT...A PERIOD OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CWA...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 1 INCH. AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES...SFC TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH WHICH SHIFTS BLYR WINDS FM NNW TO NNE AND THIS WILL CHANGE THE MAIN FOCUS AREAS FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT. FAR WEST CWA VCNTY OF KIWD COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BUT LOWERING INVERSION BLO 5KFT SHOULD CUT DOWN INTENSITY BY TIME WINDS BECOME FM MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION. NCNTRL VCNTY OF BARAGA/L'ANSE AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY TO THE WEST OF MARQUETTE SHOULD SEE SNOW INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS WIND SHIFT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSIONS...STRONGER CONVERGENCE THAN IN THE WEST CWA...AND ALL THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN THE DGZ FAVORS POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THESE AREAS AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER DECIDED TO RUN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY FOR MARQUETTE AND ALGER THOUGH LATE SUN NIGHT ENDING AT 12Z ON MON. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW OTHER AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAYBE EVEN FARTHER INLAND OVER DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES MAY NEED HEADLINE FOR SUN NIGHT...ESPECIALLY BARAGA COUNTY... BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ONCE DETAILS OF LOCATION/INTENSITY FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT BECOME MORE CLEAR. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH ON MON WITH FURTHER LOWERING INVERSION BLO 4KFT AND RAPIDLY INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS 1033- 1037MB HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. NE WINDS SWITCH TO SW MID-LATE AFTN AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ENDING THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT/FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK TROUGH WITH COOLING AT H85 WORKS THROUGH ON WED. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOST SPOTS AS THIS TROUGH WORKS ACROSS. TROUGH STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER UPR MICHIGAN WED NIGHT INTO THU...MOST LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE SO THAT MAY INCREASE THE SNOW SLIGHTLY. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. ATTN THU INTO FRI WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SFC LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRI MORNING AND WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRI INTO SAT. INVERTED TROUGH AND FORCING WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SNOW FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GULF IS OPEN BUT BASED ON PWATS...DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWATS OVER 0.75 MAY BE MORE WRAPPED UP WITH SYSTEM LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST AT THE SAME TIME. PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE A MODERATE SNOW PRODUCER FOR PARTS OF UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH ALSO IT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR NEXT SAT. LATEST ECMWF BRINGS WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTH...SO MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST WILL JUST CARRY SNOW FOR NOW. GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE...FIRST FM THE EAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THEN FM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING THIS SYSTEM JUST EXITED JAPAN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...SO OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE FORECAST TO ADJUST REGARDING DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM. APPEARS SEASONABLY COOL JUST BEYOND DAY 7 IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 645 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 A GUSTY NNW WIND BEHIND A COLD FROPA WL DRIVE MUCH COLDER OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP STARTING TNGT...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NMRS LK EFFECT SHSN AND DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS...WITH IFR VSBYS PREDOMINATING MUCH OF THE TIME BY SUN MRNG. BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER VSBYS WL BE AT IWD AND SAW SINCE THE EXPECTED FLOWS WL PRESENT A MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT AT THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED FLOW THAN FCST MAY CAUSE THE HEAVIER LES BANDS TO MISS SAW TO THE E. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 258 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 UPPER GREAT LAKES REMAINS SITUATED BTWN LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NE CANADA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN INTO TONIGHT RESULTING IN GALES INTO TONIGHT. NEXT GALE EVENT LOOKS TO BE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR WITH SW GALES TO 35 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ005-006. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248-251-265-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...07
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 427 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 MIZ005-006-030830- MARQUETTE-ALGER- 427 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MOST SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTY. SEE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOWFALL REPORTS. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS ON OUR WEB PAGE OR THROUGH OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES. MIZ001>004-007-009>014-084-085-030830- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-LUCE-GOGEBIC-IRON- DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 427 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 /327 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOWFALL REPORTS. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT REPORTS ON OUR WEB PAGE OR THROUGH OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-030830- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 427 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 /327 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT WEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-030830- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 427 PM EST SAT JAN 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JLA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 winter weather, 1 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm total lake effect snow totals over 24 hours included 15 inches at Christmas and 12.7 inches eight miles southwest of Munising.
There was a social media report of an estimated seven inches of lake effect snow in approximately 18 hours six miles south of Trenary across the Delta County line.
There was a public report via social media of an estimated five inches of lake effect snow in approximately 14 hours.
Observers in Negaunee measured between 6 and 8 inches of lake effect snow over 24 hours. A NWS employee near National Mine measured 6.5 inches of lake effect snow in 24 hours.
An estimated two to four inches of lake effect snow fell during a five-hour period.
The L'anse Fire Department measured five inches of lake effect snow in 12 hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 615262, 615283, 615277, 615281, 615282, 615279.