A low pressure system in Bristol Bay brought winds and heavy precipitation to the southcentral area. This caused wind loading in the snowpack at the tops of mountains and Hatcher Pass Recreation Area experienced considerable avalanche danger, according to the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system in Bristol Bay brought winds and heavy precipitation to the southcentral area. This caused wind loading in the snowpack at the tops of mountains and Hatcher Pass Recreation Area experienced considerable avalanche danger, according to the Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 5:04 AM AKST, 6 hours 56 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS A BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND EASTERN ALASKA...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AOR REMAINS ACTIVE UNDER A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...WHICH
IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN BERING. A WEAKENING
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...AS SEEN IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN SEE THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH BROUGHT COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA...SLOWLY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN BERING. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SOME GUSTY AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
THE WAVE TRACKING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE QPF
DIFFERENCES ARE IN PART DUE TO A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE
OF DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL OCCUR OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN
KENAI IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. THE EC IN PARTICULAR
MINIMIZES THE DOWNSLOPING AND BRINGS THE MOST QPF TO ANCHORAGE AND
THE WESTERN KENAI...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE
QPF IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIGHTER. THE NAM SEEMS TO
CAPTURE THE DYNAMICS BETTER...AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
SHORT TERM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING...AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA BY
TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE FAVORED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH.
NEARING THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...OUR EYES SHIFT TO ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AKPEN. THE NAM
AND EC WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GFS
BECAME A FAST OUTLIER WITH A SOLUTION SIX HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THERE IS A FRONT IN THE NORTH GULF
COAST PUSHING INLAND. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT
BEHIND IT WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. AFTER THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION AND ANY MORE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY
DOWNSLOPE OUT OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTH AND
FOLLOW THE COASTLINE UNTIL MOVING OUT TOWARDS SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
THIS EVENING. AS IT MOVES NORTH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA WITH RAIN IN
THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
FADE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIMINISHES BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC THEN APPROACHES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SUNDAY BRINGING IN MORE
RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL HEAD TOWARDS SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER FLOW. EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR THAT WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN
OR METEOROLOGICAL REASONING IN THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG 35-40N. AT THE START OF DAY
3...THE 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE
AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST WHILE
THE RIDGE SPANNING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST HOLDS STEADLY IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA...KEEPING THE REGION IN A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA. AS EXPECTED WITH
THIS PATTERN AND AT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION WITH THIS LOW. THE
GFS BRINGING A LOW CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS ONE LOW WESTWARD ALONG THE POLAR JET AT ABOUT 45N WHILE
BRINGING A SECOND WEAKER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA....WHICH
THE GFS NEGLECTS.
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE EXTENDED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN RELIED HEAVY
ON WPC GUIDANCE WITH A MIX OF THE ECMWF ON DAY 4 TO ACCOUNT MORE
FOR THE IMPACTS OF THE ELONGATED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. ON
DAY 3...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF ALONG WITH THE EXISTING
FORECAST WAS USED AS MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIME FRAME.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 136-139 150 155 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
A person riding a snow mobile was caught in a terrain trap when an avalanche released above him. He was buried under 6 feet of snow and perished.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalanche, Matanuska Valley | 2016-01-02 | 35 | Male | Outside/Open Areas | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616169.