A low pressure system in Bristol Bay brought strong southerly flow and precipitation to Northeast Prince William Sound. Combined with northerly outflow from the Copper River Basin, snowfall and winds were enhanced through Thompson Pass.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low pressure system in Bristol Bay brought strong southerly flow and precipitation to Northeast Prince William Sound. Combined with northerly outflow from the Copper River Basin, snowfall and winds were enhanced through Thompson Pass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 4:52 PM AKST, 7 hours 8 minutes earlier.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 452 PM AKST FRI JAN 1 2016 CORRECTION TO THE ANALYSIS MODEL DISCUSSION .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... AS A BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND EASTERN ALASKA...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA REMAINS ACTIVE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC. A CLASSIC OCCLUDED CYCLONE PATTERN IS VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND DOWN INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA HAS KEPT SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND...AND THEN EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE ARE RAMPING UP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD...WITH WINDS IN KAMISHAK GAP AND AROUND KODIAK ISLAND ALREADY GUSTING TO STORM FORCE. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN BERING AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THE SHOWERS ARE HEAVIEST IN REGIONS OF ENHANCED UPLIFT IN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. THE DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND THE CYCLONE BEHIND THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE CYCLONE IS PULLING COLDER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CYCLONE DOWN THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF...REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ARISE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES ONSHORE. THE QPF DIFFERENCES ARE IN PART DUE TO A SLIGHT DIFFERING IN THE DEGREE OF DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL OCCUR OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. THE EC IN PARTICULAR MINIMIZES THE DOWNSLOPING AND BRINGS THE MOST QPF TO ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN KENAI WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE QPF IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIGHTER. THE NAM SEEMS TO CAPTURES THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE SHORT TERM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY AS THE CYCLONE PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE BERING SEA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE FAVORED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE WEATHER FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MARCHING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER HAS REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS NOW WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED ALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS COOK INLET CURRENTLY BENDING THE ACCELERATED TURNAGAIN ARM WIND SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM ANCHORAGE. THIS STORM IS TURNING OUT TO BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND AS A RESULT EXPECT WINDS AROUND CORDOVA AND EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT SHOULD STILL GENERALLY STAY JUST BELOW WARNING LEVELS. A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOMPSON PASS AND IS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MODELS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EVEN MORE AS A VERY ROBUST 150+ KT SOUTHERLY JET PROPELS DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE COOK INLET PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TO GUSTY WINDS TO PUSH BACK INTO ANCHORAGE AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...AT WHICH POINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD JUMP UP INTO THE UPPER 30S AGAIN. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND COASTAL AREAS ACCOMPANYING VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IN AREAS THAT STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY...MAINLY THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND PERHAPS TURNAGAIN PASS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... A VERY IMPRESSIVE STORM FORCE LOW IS IMPACTING THE REGION THIS EVENING...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE DELTA. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WITH SOME MINOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE DELTA. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY...INITIALLY BRINGING IN WARMER SOUTHEAST WINDS BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS AROUND AND BECOMES ONSHORE AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE MAIN STORY IN THE BERING SEA WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS WILL SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN...MIXED WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)... THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN OR METEOROLOGICAL REASONING IN THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST. THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG 35-40N. AT THE START OF DAY 3...THE 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST WHILE THE RIDGE SPANNING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST HOLDS STEADY IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA...KEEPING THE REGION IN A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA. AS EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN AND AT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION WITH THIS LOW. THE GFS BRINGING A LOW CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS ONE LOW WESTWARD ALONG THE POLAR JET AT ABOUT 45N WHILE BRINGING A SECOND WEAKER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA....WHICH THE GFS NEGLECTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE EXTENDED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN RELIED HEAVY ON WPC GUIDANCE WITH A MIX OF THE ECMWF ON DAY 4 TO ACCOUNT MORE FOR THE IMPACTS OF THE ELONGATED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. ON DAY 3...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF ALONG WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WAS USED AS MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME FRAME. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING THOMPSON PASS (131). FLOOD ADVISORY ANCHOR POINT (121) MARINE...STORMS 119 125. GALES 120 129 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 170 171 172 180 185 351 352. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AD SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA LONG TERM...RF
1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Thompson Pass DOT reported 2 to 3 feet of new snow in the pass with blizzard conditions. Several motorists were stranded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 616167.