Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed through the day ahead of a frontal boundary and approaching upper level trough. These storms resulted in isolated wind damage in Whitley and McCreary Counties and flash flooding extending into Pike County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developed through the day ahead of a frontal boundary and approaching upper level trough. These storms resulted in isolated wind damage in Whitley and McCreary Counties and flash flooding extending into Pike County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 2:05 PM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson KY 305 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 305 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...Torrential rainfall on Thursday may lead to Localized Flash Flooding... Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue into the evening with the primary focus turning to the heavy rain potential tomorrow. A stalled frontal boundary has lifted north of the area and is expected to stay just north of the state through the day tomorrow. This has allowed winds to turn more southerly this afternoon. As a southern stream wave strengthens and lifts out of the Mississippi Valley overnight tonight, winds will turn a bit more southwesterly and increase in strength, allowing for an even deeper pull of moist air. This upper wave will interact with the stationary frontal boundary, as well as the potential phasing of the northern and southern stream jets, to create a large surge of warm deep moisture and lift for which storms to develop across our area. PWAT values for tonight will be well over 2 inches and will continue to increase up to 2.4 inches in some places by tomorrow afternoon. While CAPE and LI values remain decent per model soundings, the profiles are long, skinny, and moist with little wind shear. This type of profile indicates heavy rain and flash flooding concerns, moreso than severe weather. Mostly unidirectional flow in the mid and upper levels may lead to training of storms, which would likely lead to localized flash flooding. Depending on the model, anywhere from 1.5 to 3 inches of total rainfall is possible Thursday through Friday morning. Considering the extreme PWATS, any storm that does form would be a very proficient rain producer. All this considered, have decided to issue a flash flood watch for the entire area from late tonight through Friday morning. The bulk of the rain is expected to exit the area by dawn on Friday but we can expect unsettled weather to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will take a downward turn tomorrow with the onset of thick cloud cover and heavy rains, with highs in the low 80s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 No real break in sight from the unsettled weather as models project our area remaining in northwest flow aloft with a quasi- stationary frontal boundary positioned over us over very close by throughout the period. This will bring us daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. These should be scattered in nature most days, although a decent shortwave shown passing through the Ohio Valley may spawn a little more widespread coverage of showers/storms on Saturday and indicated higher PoPs there. The ground should be fairly wet after the short term rainfall so at least isolated flash flooding will remain a concern, at least through the weekend. Otherwise, it will remain warm and humid throughout the period with daytime highs well into the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and track mainly east across our area this afternoon and evening, mainly along and ahead of a stalled frontal boundary. Current thinking is that the north and eastern portions of the area will receive the most rainfall through this evening. Tonight, did add in the mention of fog development and vis restriction after 3Z, though exact impacts will largely be dependent on the amount of rain each TAF site receives through this evening. A low pressure system will approach the area from the southwest tonight, bringing widespread heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to the area through at least tomorrow afternoon. These rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to variable VIS at the TAF sites, with CIGS degrading. Winds will generally be light and variable, though any stronger showers or thunderstorms could produce some brief gusty conditions. && .JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Friday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && SHORT TERM...JVM/JMW LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...JVM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 315 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-282215- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE... PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN... PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN... JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY... PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 315 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HEAT INDICES IN THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING IN LOCATIONS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY OCCUR. THE GREATEST RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. JVM/ABE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
521 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
KYZ085-086-272200-
KNOX-WHITLEY-
521 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KNOX...AND WHITLEY COUNTIES...
AT 520 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER DIXIE...OR 7 MILES
EAST OF WILLIAMSBURG. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUCKY...DIXIE...NEVISDALE...GAUSDALE...CLATE...SUTTONS MILL...
VERNE...LOUDEN...KING...YADEN...SAXTON...PACKARD...SWAN LAKE...
SILER...PERKINS...POLLY CAMP...GATLIFF...CARPENTER...
PERMON AND JULIP.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY NEAR MILE MARKER
3.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3663 8412 3682 8412 3684 8392 3665 8395
3663 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 273DEG 2KT 3672 8403
ABEThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:29 UTC.
3 flash flood, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Fire rescue and local dispatch reported several trees down, stretching from near Verne to Dixie.
Local media sent in a video of quickly flowing water of at least six inches deep flowing over a secondary road near Dry Fork.
Fire rescue and dispatch reported flash flooding from near Verne to southeast of Lucky.
A trained spotter observed trees blown down near Hollyhill.
State garage employees reported Highway 26 was impassable, while county garage officials relayed that Colonel Hollow Road was also impassable due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642449, 642450, 642451, 642452, 642453.