Damaging Winds in Arizona, July 27, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
204 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Adequate moisture will provide scattered mainly afternoon
and evening thunderstorms into this weekend. Perhaps some decrease
in coverage will occur around Thursday. Expect hotter than average
daytime temperatures through Thursday followed by moderating
temperatures by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early afternoon radar and satellite imagery reveal developing
convection along the Mogollon Rim, eastward through the White Mtns
and into the Chiricahua's. Storms have been impressive on radar thus
far but have been located in remote areas where ground truth is at a
minimum. That being said, it would appear that conditions remain
ripe for development across portions of the area through this
evening.

Full suite of 12z operational models and nearly all of the relevant
ensemble guidance has completed. It would still appear that the
large scale atmosphere is favorable for convection with the NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF all indicating much higher than normal moisture
across the area (this verifies well as this morning's 12z KTUS
sounding showed 1.62in of precipitable water which is in the 95th
percentile for late July) and MLCAPES anywhere from 500-1000 J/Kg.
Convective allowing models including the HRRR/HRRRx/UofA WRFs and
locally run WRF models all suggest convection will continue to
develop in the mountains and be advected southwestward into the
lower elevations through late afternoon. The HRRR/HRRRx has taken a
bit more of an eastward shift with the line of storms vs. earlier
runs but observational trends would suggest this may not be the
case. I made some upward adjustments to PoPs earlier in the day and
I still think these changes were warranted. Still thinking it could
be a particularly active afternoon/evening across southeast Arizona.
Confidence in how things will evolve west of Tucson has decreased
slightly but still should warrant higher than normal PoPs.

As is typically the case this time of year, how convection plays out
today will directly influence how active it is tomorrow. Given the
likelihood for storms today and the potential for a less than
favorable atmosphere, storm coverage should be less on Thursday and
that trend has already been reflected in the PoPs. Friday on the
other hand should see a return of above normal moisture and modest
instability. Some of the longer range hi-res models suggest Friday
could be even more active than today and thus PoPs have been
elevated for Friday afternoon and evening. Beyond that, it looks to
be a favorable pattern through the weekend into next week. Temps
will remain at or above normal through the end of the week but
should retreat into the low/mid 90s this weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.
Isold to sctd -SHRA and -TSRA, mainly from KTUS E and S thu 28/08z.
Brief wind gusts to 50 mph and MVFR conds psbl with stronger TSRA.
Otherwise, sfc wind mainly less than 10 kts. Debris cloud cover
above 10k ft agl btwn 29/08z and 29/16z with isold -shra/ts.

Storms developing once again after 28/17z ovr the higher trrn and
drifting SW in the valleys thru 29/00z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will continue into early next week. Expect the storms this evening
mainly south and east of Tucson. Afternoon temperatures will remain
a bit warmer than average through Friday, then drop to near normal
by early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
202 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

AZZ509-510-272145-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD-WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN MEADOW-
202 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MST...

AT 201 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF MORENCI...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAFFORD...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...THATCHER...PIMA AND SOLOMON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3312 10967 3297 10938 3272 10957 3293 10988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 038DEG 20KT 3302 10954

LEINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
238 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

AZZ509-510-272230-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD-WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN MEADOW-
238 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENLEE COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MST...

AT 237 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLIFTON...OR 20 MILES NORTH OF DUNCAN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLIFTON...DUNCAN...FRANKLIN AND GUTHRIE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3262 10919 3303 10932 3308 10915 3293 10904
      3265 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 046DEG 9KT 3296 10915

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
340 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

AZZ508-509-512-272345-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING
CLIFTON/SAFFORD-EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING
DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL
MONUMENT-
340 PM MST WED JUL 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM MST...

AT 339 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF STEINS TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOWIE. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ALSO PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
ALONG I-10 BETWEEN SAN SIMON AND BOWIE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWIE...SAN SIMON...KANSAS SETTLEMENT...
PARADISE AND CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 10926 3206 10988 3253 10942 3235 10905
      3213 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 032DEG 24KT 3229 10906 3246 10939

FRENCH