Scattered and disorganized thunderstorms developed, just ahead of a weak cold front. A couple of storms reached severe levels.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Scattered and disorganized thunderstorms developed, just ahead of a weak cold front. A couple of storms reached severe levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 12:27 PM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 127 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1013 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Quiet out there this morning, waiting on diurnally driving instability and enhanced low level convergence axes to kick off afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Diffuse and slow moving front dropping slowly south into northern lower should only help the cause. Not much deep layer support, however, with main shortwave looking to remain upstream today. 12Z local sounding shows the convective potential, with respectable mid level lapse rates and plenty of positive area. Same sounding also displays the negatives, with plenty of lower level cinh and only marginal amounts of moisture through the sounding. With that said, really think these negatives will be at least partially overcome through surface based moisture pooling along convergence axes and further boundary layer warming. Simple pattern recognition supports a decent Lake Michigan shadow in background light northwest flow regime. Feel "best" coverage will be across northeast lower Michigan, with even some help from Lake Huron induced wind fields. Given limited deep layer dynamics and marginal moisture profiles, do believe coverage will remain isolated to scattered. Limited vertical wind shear should largely limit storm organization and keep most below severe limits. Although, with mean layer cape profiles likely to exceed 1K joules/kg and hints of good cape through the favored hail growth zone, cannot completely rule out an isolated severe wind gust or large hail report. Will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 ...A somewhat unsettled day and night ahead... High impact weather potential: a few strong pulse storms possible this afternoon/evening south of M-32. Isolated showers are found near Bois Blanc Isl down to CVX. A larger cluster of shra/tsra is seen between ESC and MNM...extending w into n central WI. The front will slowly move south today, reaching the M-72/M-55 corridors late in the afternoon. Convection should see something of a lull this morning, but building instability looks to get things going again as we move thru the afternoon. Precip and temperature trends are the main concern. Today...will have to keep an isolated shra/tsra in the morning forecast. Mlcapes of 300- 500j/kg still linger here, which may allow a few shra/tsra to kick off along the front and/or outflow boundaries, or move in from upstream. But generally expect the northern WI activity to weaken as it tries to move east. So think most places will be dry for the first half of the day, with more sun south of M-72 than north. Temperatures will zoom upwards thanks to diurnal heating. Noting that TVC/APN both managed to (unexpectedly) crack 90f yesterday, will generally beef up guidance max temps a smidge, especially in northern lower MI. Dew points will also be heading higher, especially near/south of M-32, thanks to moisture pooling along the incoming front. Dew points there should rise into the mid 60s. That will result in mlcapes rising to 1-1.5k j/kg, with less than 10j/kg of cinh (located at 850mb). That's not much of an obstacle, and with the incoming front, lake breezes, and potential outflow boundaries, we should have the trigger mechanisms needed. So will have sct pops breaking out this afternoon. Question is where things will get started, along the boundary (per the Rap), or slightly into the cooler/drier air (per the Nam)? The answer is probably both; most models take ongoing convection in northern MN steadily eastward today, eventually threatening the Straits region with some precip. There is an actual shortwave (the main forcing mechanism aloft) on that latitude. So will have sct convection across most of the forecast area this afternoon. Parts of Chippewa Co will be the primary exception. Shear is weak today (0-6km bulk shear circa 20kt), so nothing terribly organized will get going. Still might be enough instability/local forcing to support a few strong storms of a pulse nature. This will be especially the case south of M-32. Max temps lower 80s to around 90f. Tonight...afternoon pops will carry over into the evening, particularly in northern lower MI. Front eventually heads south of MI, which when combined with loss of heating will severely diminish instability. A shortwave diving into the central plains will help spin up a low along the front in northern IL. There will be some fgen processes supporting precip north of this low overnight, mainly in WI. This is close enough to warrant keeping chance pops overnight, mainly in nw lower MI. Leftover evening precip will contribute to reasonably abundant low clouds in the post-frontal airmass, so anticipate a mostly cloudy night (except fewer clouds in eastern upper MI). Some fog may also be warranted, especially in southern sections where surface dew points will remain quite elevated. Min temps upper 50s to lower 60s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 ...Perhaps a few showers and storms Thursday... Models are in general agreement over a low grade long wave trough across the Great Lakes region through Saturday. This will be followed by rising heights as a stronger ridge builds toward the region through the middle of next week. This pattern should generate seasonable temperatures through Saturday then warmer and progressively more humid conditions after that. There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night but little to no appreciable rainfall is expected after that (at least not during this forecast cycle anyways). The main forecast concerns revolve around pops early on then how much/fast it will warm up after that. Thursday into Thursday night...A short wave currently evident on water vapor imagery over Montana moves through the flow and across central Michigan. This feature may lead to the development of showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly south of M-32 and perhaps even south of M-72. Models vary on just how far north precipitation chances should be with only a few hundred j/kg of mixing layer cape across far southern zones. Have kind of taken the middle ground here with slight chance pops up to M-32 and low chance pops along and south of M-72. Highs in the pleasant middle 70s to around 80. Lows in the mostly comfortable middle 50s to near 60. Friday into Saturday...High pressure pressing down from the north looks to suppress showers and storms to along and south of M-55. Therefore will continue to trend pops in this direction as well. Highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s with lows mainly in the 50s. Sunday through Tuesday...Ridging aloft will continue to build in from the center portion of the country. This should lead to rain free, warmer and progressively more humid conditions through the period. Highs generally in the lower and middle 80s but some spots may push into the upper 80s by Tuesday. Lows only falling off into the upper 50s to middle 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 ...Primarily VFR conditions expected... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, with the most probable locations for impact being KTVC and KAPN. Large area of mid to high clouds will spread across the region tonight, perhaps bringing a few more widely scattered showers. Skies should begin to mix out some later Thursday morning from north to south. Light wind regime through this taf period. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Weak cold front will cross northern MI from north to south thru the evening. Light w to sw winds ahead of the front, will give way to nw to n winds behind it. Those winds will be light tonight, but pick up a smidge on Thursday. Still, winds and waves should remain below advisory criteria. && .APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...MSB MARINE...JZ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 315 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-281200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5 NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING BOIS BLANC ISLAND- PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER MI- GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE- NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI- POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI- MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI- WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI- ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 315 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...FROM THE STRAITS AREA SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SOUTH OF M-32. ANY STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS: ONLINE: WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/NWSGAYLORD TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD && WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD JZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
MIZ031>033-271845-
MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
115 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEXFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
MISSAUKEE AND SOUTHEASTERN MANISTEE COUNTIES...
AT 114 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANTON TO NEAR
FOUNTAIN. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...MANTON...BOON...MCBAIN...MESICK...HARRIETTA...
FALMOUTH...MITCHELL STATE PARK...MEAUWATAKA...VOGEL CENTER...YUMA...
HOXEYVILLE...LUCAS...WELLSTON...DUBLIN AND JENNINGS.
THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 4420 8607 4452 8549 4451 8542 4416 8496
4416 8596 4417 8604
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 326DEG 10KT 4447 8549 4405 8609
JSLThe NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:29 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limbs and power lines were downed.
Several trees were downed. A couple of homes were damaged by falling trees.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654595, 654596.