Frost and Freeze in Kentucky, April 8 to 10, 2016

Name: Frost and Freeze in Kentucky, April 8 to 10, 2016
Start: 2016-04-08T04:00
End: 2016-04-10T08:00
Location: Kentucky

April 8 to 10, 2016 · NWS LMK · 99 events in 49 counties and zones

An unusually warm March led to an early start for the growing season across the lower Ohio Valley. An unseasonably cold air mass settled over the area April 8-10, which brought low temperatures down to the mid 20s to low 30s.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 99 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 99

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 8, 1:56 AM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 8, 1:56 AM EST, 2 hours 4 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
256 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2016

Mother Nature's familiar refrain for this spring rings true, as the
main challenges once again are wind gusts this afternoon and
potential freeze tonight into Sat morning.

Main weather player is an upper-level wave diving out of the Upper
Midwest to reinforce the eastern CONUS trof. Surface reflection is
not as strong as some of the recent Clippers, but we're still seeing
precip over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and this is generally well
handled by the models.

As this disturbance deepens and moves ESE this morning, precip will
break out southward into the Ohio Valley by late morning, but some
question as to how quickly mid-level moisture will be available.
Therefore POPs are limited to chance in parts of west-central and
south-central Kentucky, with low-end likely POPs mainly across the
Bluegrass. Steep lapse rates and low freezing levels could yield
some small hail, and a rumble of thunder will be possible as well.

Gradient really tightens behind the departing precip shield, and
we'll have a brief surge of west winds that will again be quite
close to advisory thresholds late this afternoon into early evening.
It's a narrow window that has both the gradient and the stronger
mixing to support 40+ mph gusts, but certainly 35 mph gusts will be
fairly common late this afternoon. At this time we'll cover it with
a Special Weather Statement, given that it would be a marginal
advisory and exact timing is a bit uncertain.

Other main story is cold temps, especially late tonight into Sat
morning. Cold advection will drag unseasonably cold air into the
Ohio Valley, with the mixy boundary layer as the only factor to save
us from significant frost. However, forecast lows in the upper 20s
across much of the area, and at or below freezing clear down to the
Tennessee border, are enough to upgrade tonight's Freeze Watch to a
Freeze Warning. A hard freeze is possible especially across portions
of southern Indiana and the Bluegrass, but the wind will keep temps
fairly uniform.

High pressure finally settles in on Saturday, but the thermal trof
overhead will drop 850mb temps close to -10C, so we'll need some
strong April sun to even squeeze out forecast highs in the mid/upper
40s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is the freeze potential
Saturday night, followed by precipitation chances Sunday into early
next week.

High pressure overhead late Saturday will start to retreat into
eastern Kentucky as the night progresses. Light winds will allow
temps to drop quickly Saturday evening, and we'll see a greater
spread between the urban areas and the sheltered rural valleys. Sub-
freezing temps are a good bet across the Bluegrass, but return flow
developing after midnight will put the brakes on radiational
cooling, especially west of I-65. Also we have enough headline and
near-headline events to discuss first, so we'll save any headlines
for at least one more cycle.

Will be a wet start to the work week as low pressure working through
the Great Lakes drives a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Will ramp
precip chances up late Sunday, with likely to categorical POPs
across much of the area Sunday night and continuing through Monday
night as the front makes very slow progress across the area.

Southern stream wave will finally kick the front to our south and
east on Tuesday, giving way to an amplifying pattern with a building
ridge over the middle of the CONUS for the latter half of the week.
Expect a few days of dry weather with temps recovering to near or
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1244 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2016

Winds will once again be the main concern for this TAF period.
Northwesterly winds tonight continue to diminish and will be
shifting to more of a WSW direction before dawn. A disturbance will
then sweep through the region during the morning and early afternoon
bringing with it a chance for showers. Will include around 4 hours
of -SHRA at each TAF site with the disturbance moving through. Winds
this morning will increase and become gusty. They will then increase
even more during the late afternoon to early evening hours as
precipitation moves off to the east. Sustained WNW winds this
afternoon will be in the 18-25 knot range with gusts of 30-35 knots
at times. These gusts should diminish after sunset.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ032-033-
     035>037-040>043-048-049-057.

IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/
     Saturday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ079.

&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 8, 2:35 AM EST, 1 hour 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
335 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016

INZ076>078-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>031-034-038-039-045>047-053>056-
061>067-070>078-081-082-090745-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-FLOYD-CLARK-
HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-JEFFERSON-
OLDHAM-SHELBY-SPENCER-ANDERSON-NELSON-MERCER-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-LOGAN-WARREN-
SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-CUMBERLAND-
CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...JASPER...
ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...
LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...
LA GRANGE...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
335 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016 /235 AM CDT FRI APR 8 2016/

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 10 AM EDT
/9 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ079-KYZ032-033-035>037-040>043-048-049-057-090745-
JEFFERSON-TRIMBLE-HENRY-FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-
BOURBON-NICHOLAS-JESSAMINE-CLARK-MADISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BEDFORD...MILTON...NEW CASTLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...RICHMOND
335 AM EDT FRI APR 8 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW FREEZING IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RAS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 8, 3:57 AM EST, 3 minutes before

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The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

99 frost/freeze. Local standard time, as filed.

Frost/Freeze, Trimble

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Trimble forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.613, -85.338 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Henry

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Henry forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.449, -85.119 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Franklin

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 38.239, -84.877 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The low temperature at Capital City Airport was 28 degrees, which was consistent with readings across the rest of Franklin County.

Frost/Freeze, Scott

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Scott forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.292, -84.584 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Harrison

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Harrison forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.442, -84.331 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Woodford

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Woodford forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.042, -84.744 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Nicholas

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Nicholas forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.336, -84.015 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Bourbon

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Bourbon forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 38.207, -84.217 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Clark

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Clark forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 37.971, -84.147 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Madison

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Madison forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 37.720, -84.278 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Jessamine

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Jessamine forecast zone
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 37.872, -84.581 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Low temperatures across the county ranged from 26 to 30 degrees.

Frost/Freeze, Fayette

When: April 8, 4:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST
Where: Fayette forecast zone
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 38.042, -84.459 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The low temperature at Bluegrass Airport was 28 degrees, which was consistent with readings across the rest of Fayette County.