Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, October 6, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
134 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Earlier this morning, elevated storms remained to the north along
the KS/NE boarder while a persistent line of showers and
thunderstorms moved just southeast of the forecast area.  Clouds
have scattered in northeast Kansas allowing for sufficient heating
to occur this afternoon with highs expected to reach into the upper
70s and dewpoints rising into the mid and high 60s. The surface low
has been moving northeast steadily ahead of the quickly moving upper
level wave.  Storms are forecast to develop near the triple point
late this afternoon as the front moves through the area and into the
area of sufficient cloud clearing where the greatest destabilization
has occurred.  CAPE near 2000 J/kg and shear on the order of 40
knots will fuel the severe potential for storms. Initial development
in the late afternoon may start as discrete in nature with
supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and even
a tornado.  Models continue to show pockets of higher helicity ahead
of this front that will make tornadic development possible as storms
first form.  As development continues, a linear line of storms is
likely to form shifting the greatest threats to damaging winds,
although hail will still be possible.  The front will move through
northeast Kansas by midnight possibly undercutting ongoing storms
which would then end the severe potential as well. Surface high
pressure behind the front will bring precipitation to an end by
early morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

Area of high pressure expands eastward through the day on Friday as
the upper trough exits eastward. Winds quickly weaken at the sfc
behind the cold front overnight, setting up the potential for patchy
frost across north central Kansas. Main uncertainty is with the
temp spread with lows generally in the 36 to 39 range. Will go ahead
and mention patchy frost in the forecast, however will forgo a frost
advisory at this time. Highs tomorrow are on track to be the coolest
day of the forecast with readings in the lower to middle 60s.

Sfc winds shift around towards the south for the weekend with a
gradual warmup expected throughout the weekend from the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Sunday. Next system to watch approaches from the
southwest Monday mainly over central Kansas, to much of the CWA on
Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are doing a decent job of handling
the track even though the forcing and available moisture is limited.
A series of prominent upper lows over the northern provinces of
Canada to the Pacific NW coastline will eject a series of weaker
waves into the region. Off and on chances for isolated thunder
cannot be ruled out with temps in the near normal range for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

VFR conditions are likely for the majority of the period.  A line of
storms is forecast to develop this afternoon and move eastward
through the area into the late evening hours.  Went with hires
models on timing with storms moving through MHK between 22-01Z, and
TOP/FOE from 00-03Z, although this timing will need to continue to
be monitored. Reduced ceilings and visibilities are likely with this
activity. Gusty winds will continue briefly behind storms before
high pressure moves in and winds shift from the north and gusts
end at 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-071800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1249 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE EVENING. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO ARE EXPECTED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE
DURING THE EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. MINOR FLOODING IN THE POTTAWATOMIE CREEK BASIN IS POSSIBLE
IF FORECAST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1039 AM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     TORNADO          2 WNW GREEN             39.44N 97.04W
10/04/2016                   CLAY               KS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            AN EF1 TORNADO TRACKED NORTHWEST OF GREEN CAUSING MINOR
            DAMAGE TO A HOUSE AND TREES. THE PATH LENGTH WAS ROUGHLY
            5 MILES AND ESTIMATED PEAK WIND WAS 90 MPH. DELAYED
            REPORT.

&&

KSANDERS