Severe thunderstorms came in three rounds for this event as numerous upper level disturbances moved over Northwest Kansas. The first round developed during the early afternoon in Wichita county and was confined to one storm which produced golf ball size hail and flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Severe thunderstorms came in three rounds for this event as numerous upper level disturbances moved over Northwest Kansas. The first round developed during the early afternoon in Wichita county and was confined to one storm which produced golf ball size hail and flash flooding. The next round came during the latter half of the evening, producing hen egg size hail near Atwood and in Rexford, and wind damage in Sharon Springs. The final round came overnight when an estimated gust of 60 MPH was reported north of Edson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 7:02 AM MST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 802 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 800 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Updated forecast to focus on the increasing chances of thunderstorms through day entering the forecast area from the north/northwest as the upper short wave trough exits southeast Wyoming and moves into the central high plains region. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday tonight) Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 Main forecast issue remains thunderstorm chances. Satellite showing an amplified pattern over the Pacific, more amplified than yesterday. This transitions to a ridge centered over the southwest portion with west to northwest flow over the region. Stationary boundary was over/near the eastern portion of the area At jet level...The Canadian/Gfs/Nam were doing the best to start out. At mid levels...The Canadian/Gfs/Ukmet were starting out the best. The Sref looked to be doing the best so far on the surface wind and pressure field but will have to wait to see where the outflow boundaries end up. The Gfs/Canadian/Nam were doing well on the low level thermal field. Today/tonight...Outflow from the thunderstorm complex that moved across Nebraska and north central Kansas has shifted the winds to an east to northeast direction. There is a lot of mid and high level cloud cover plus lingering rainfall, more on that below, over and near the area at this time. Also the temperature and dewpoint spreads are not that close. So at this time will leave fog out of the morning forecast, but will continue to monitor. There is still a decent amount of moisture around with lingering lift. Currently there is spotty showers/isolated thunderstorms over and near the area, and will leave a slight chance through mid morning. Now for this afternoon and tonight. Left front quadrant of the jet remains near or over the far north and northwest portion of the area through the middle of the night before pulling a little further north. Satellite and PV analysis shows a rather strong shortwave trough over Wyoming at this time. This looks to be the shortwave responsible to cause thunderstorms to develop. Lift is not that far away and expect a little earlier start to the storms this afternoon. At this time have slight to chance pops, highest in the north, for this afternoon. The strong lift pushes across tonight. This lift and general model agreement of a good precipitation signal/qpf, especially from the convective allowing models, supported raising pops into the high chance to likely categories. High temperatures are somewhat problematic. Outflow has brought cooler air in and should get an early afternoon start to the thunderstorms. Tended to toward the cooler guidance. Thursday/Thursday night...There looks to be some lingering thunderstorms in the far east in the morning. By the middle of the day there is strong jet lift to the north of our area. By the end of the afternoon that transitions to a right rear quadrant and/or a weak coupled jet structure. That transitions to a left front quadrant approaching the western portion of the area by late in the evening. That moves off to the north during the overnight hours. During the afternoon and nighttime a rather strong shortwave will move from the northwest. So rather deep lift will move across the area with a strong precipitation signal in place. Currently have high chance to likely for the night but if current trends continue will probably need even higher pops. If we can get a decent amount of sun and increase the instability, there should be a decent chance to have severe thunderstorms. However, due to possible mesoscale influences from todays convection chose not to mention it in the zones yet, and will cover this in the Hwo. The more widespread looks to be heavy rainfall. Storm movement does not look to be too slow. However Pwats will be from near 1.5 to near 2 inches. So put a mention of heavy rainfall in the forecast. High temperatures will be cooler, the 80s, but some uncertainty on this due to mesoscale influences that could make it even cooler. Friday/Friday night...Hard to be too definite about this period since expect the area will be heavily influenced from the overnight convection. There looks to be lingering rainfall in the morning with additional shortwave energy to move in from the northwest. Also a possibility that could have a significant amount of cloud cover through the day to keep the air mass more stable than expect. For now the forecast has slight chance to chance pops. High temperatures will be cooler and per reasoning above, could be even cooler than I have them. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 At the beginning of the extended period, the ridge located over the southwestern U.S. will move eastward and its axis will cross over the Tri-State area at the start of the new work week. This ridge will be the predominant feature during this long term. Anticipate mostly drier condition and above normal temperatures, highs reaching the upper 90s on Monday and Tuesday. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late afternoon/early evening. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 541 AM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016 At this time am expecting vfr conditions at both sites. Am expecting thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and affect both sites, especially during the late afternoon into the evening hours. Chose to go vcts early then a definite mention -tsra later in the afternoon through the evening. If one of the stronger storms moves directly over the site, there may be sub vfr conditions. && .GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...LOCKHART SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...BULLER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281645- YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS- DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE- GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 1041 AM MDT WED JUL 27 2016 /1141 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:05 UTC.
6 hail, 3 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Estimated time of report. A carport was tossed from a backyard up onto neighbor's roof and poked a hole in the roof.
Hail is covering the ground. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with water running down the road.
A stationary thunderstorm produced heavy rainfall for one and a half to two hours over the same location. Radar estimates 3-5 inches of rainfall occurred over the same location during this time. Water was reported to be running over and down the road not long after the heavy rainfall started. Best estimate for an exact location of the flooding based on available information is where White Woman Creek flows under Road 17.
The hail ranged from quarter to ping-pong ball in size.
Estimated wind speeds of 50 to 60 MPH.
Estimated wind speeds to be around 60 MPH.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 652172, 652166, 652159, 652167, 652168, 652169, 652170, 652171, 652173, 652174.