A low pressure system crossed well south of the Ohio Valley early in the morning on Thursday, March 3rd. An upper level wave of energy passed over the region during the day.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
A low pressure system crossed well south of the Ohio Valley early in the morning on Thursday, March 3rd. An upper level wave of energy passed over the region during the day. Snow and rain changed over to snow early and remained primarily snow through the morning, with a heavier snow band found along the Ohio River in the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 6:46 AM EST, 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 646 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOCUSED ON THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THOUGH SOME ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE CLEARER (PRIMARILY THE OVERALL LOWERING OF SNOWFALL TOTALS)...THE REASONING FOR REACHING THIS CONCLUSION HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF ANALYZING SEVERAL COMPLICATED SCENARIOS INVOLVING FORCING...TEMPERATURES...AND MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION ONSET IS OCCURRING OVER INDIANA...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. IF THERE WAS GOING TO BE A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION...IT IS ESSENTIALLY UNDETECTABLE IN THE RECENT MODEL RUNS...EVEN INCLUDING SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. RATHER...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN KANSAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS MAKES IT NOT OVERLY SURPRISING THAT THE FORCING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NOW APPEARS MORE DISJOINTED THAN EXPECTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. TODAY WILL NOT BE A CASE WITH A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE REGION AND MOVING NEATLY FROM WEST TO EAST. INSTEAD...THERE WILL BE THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF PRECIPITATION TO MONITOR. THE FIRST TWO WILL BE DISCUSSED HERE...AND THE THIRD WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. INITIAL SNOW DEVELOPING OVER INDIANA IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION...CURRENTLY RATHER STRONG IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER. THOUGH THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER 15Z AS IF SHIFTS NORTHEAST...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES (MERCER/AUGLAIZE)...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS GOING INTO THE RICHMOND/DAYTON/BELLEFONTAINE AREAS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...GIVEN THE COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR REFREEZING. ONCE THIS BAND HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...THE MAJORITY OF THE ILN CWA IS LIKELY TO BE IN A GENERAL LULL OF PRECIPITATION AT AROUND 15Z. WITH CONDITIONS SATURATING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORCED MAINLY BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...AND THERE ARE FEW (IF ANY) SIGNS OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH IT. THAT BEING SAID...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO THE GREATEST PERCENTAGE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THAT PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO BE LIQUID. PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED FEW HOURS OF DRIER CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE DAY (NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH INCREASING SOLAR ASSISTANCE)...TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FORECAST TO RISE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...FORCING RAIN TO BECOME THE EXPECTED P-TYPE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z-20Z. EVEN WHERE THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HOLDING ON FOR LONGER IN THE FAR NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT THAT FAR NORTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TRACK...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT. ULTIMATELY...THERE IS NOW REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN ESSENTIALLY ZERO SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL EVENTUALLY CHANGE DURING THE EVENING...AS TEMPERATURES START TO DROP AFTER 20Z. THE MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY IS SIMPLY REMARKABLE. RECENT HRRR/RAP RUNS ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOUT 50 IN THE SOUTHERN CWA BY AFTERNOON...AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. ON THE OTHER SIDE...NAM12 AND WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM RUNS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN KENTUCKY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 40S TO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS ARE REALISTIC...BUT THEY ILLUSTRATE THE SPREAD INVOLVED WHEN PRE-PRECIPITATION BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING / SATURATION AND COOLING / LOW-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION ARE BEING HANDLED SO DIFFERENTLY EVEN FOR A DAY-OF-EVENT FORECAST. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS THUS QUITE LOW IN CONFIDENCE...WITH RAPID COOLING UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FIELD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON / EARLY IN THE EVENING. A BRIEF MIX WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FINAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COME DURING THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AFTER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE-DRIVEN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH A STRENGTHENING WIND SHIFT AND THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION (WHICH SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AT THIS POINT) WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF EITHER MOISTURE OR FORCING TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO...PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHERN ILN COUNTIES. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH STRATOCUMULUS STRUGGLING TO ERODE...THOUGH CONDITIONS LOOK A LITTLE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT MUCH (IF ANY) FLURRIES. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND BENIGN...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 30S TO LOWER 4OS) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE OVERALL MODEL TREND FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM ON SATURDAY HAS BEEN FOR WEAKER SOLUTIONS WITH THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE MIXING TO RAIN...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEAR GENERALLY LIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WARM CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BEHIND THE SYSTEM...COLD ADVECTION WILL AGAIN OCCUR. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...JUST BEFORE THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BEGINS NEXT WEEK. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHILE A PASSING SHOWER OR SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. THE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL THE LOW AND COLD FRONT CROSSES BEYOND MID-WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM THAT THUNDER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MORE LIKELY NORTHWEST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHICH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SO THAT ANY OF THE PRECIP THAT MAY BEGIN AS SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN. CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WILL PERMIT FOR A NICE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 FOR ONE LAST NIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TAKE HOLD. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE 60S AND COULD APPROACH 70 ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TOP OUT IN THE 50S BY MID WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST IN TERMS OF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...PRECIPITATION DURATION AT ANY ONE SITE...AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SPLIT NATURE IN THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COME IN MAINLY TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WARM AIR MOIST ADVECTION INTO EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT KDAY WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF GETTING LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION. KCVG/KLUK/KILN LOOK TO BE ON THE PERIPHERY...WHILE THE SNOW MAY NOT MAKE IT TO KCMH/KLCK BEFORE WEAKENING. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION FOCUS SHIFTS TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME WEAK WAA MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN BY THIS TIME ALONG WITH GRADUAL LOWERING CONDITIONS. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS EAST...MODELS DEPICT A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION ON ITS HEELS. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE PASSING INVERTED TROUGH...MAY RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT TIMES BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOWARD MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL SHOW A GRADUAL SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...RESULTING IN IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...HICKMAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 323 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 OHZ026-034-035-042>044-040830- HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN- 323 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ051-060-061-070-040830- WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-MIAMI-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-BUTLER- 323 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH. THIS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. OHZ045-046-052>056-064-065-074-040830- UNION-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN-LICKING-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-HOCKING- 323 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ062-063-071>073-077>082-088-040830- RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON- CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-GREENE- FAYETTE-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS- PIKE-SCIOTO- 323 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HATZOS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 415 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-060-061-070-031400- WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY- LOGAN-MIAMI-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-BUTLER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY... WEST COLLEGE CORNER...BROOKVILLE...KENTON...ADA...CELINA... COLDWATER...WAPAKONETA...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN...MINSTER... GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...TROY...PIQUA...TIPP CITY... EATON...CAMDEN...DOWNTOWN DAYTON...KETTERING...HAMILTON... MIDDLETOWN...FAIRFIELD...OXFORD 415 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 ...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE... LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS. SOME ROAD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...SNOW MAY INITIALLY MELT ON CONTACT...THEN REFREEZE AS AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND SIDEWALKS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXPECTED SOME SLIPPERY CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A half inch of snow was reported by the media Three miles west of Lawrenceburg.
A post showed that 1.4 inches of snow fell in Vevay.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 620419, 620420.