Guam, 2016

Rip Current in Guam, March 3 to 4, 2016

March 3 to 4, 2016 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Long period swell generated strong rip currents along the east facing reef of Guam.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
1
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Long period swell generated strong rip currents along the east facing reef of Guam.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 6:01 AM UTC, 7 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 6:01 AM UTC, 7 hours 59 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
401 PM CHST WED MAR 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE LATEST GFS MODEL DATA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE EAST
OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 147E AND 153E. THIS SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD.
GFS MODEL BARELY SHOWS THIS FEATURE. PROJECTING THE MOTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE BRINGS IT OVER THE MARIANAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS A WEAK FEATURE BUT DID NOT WANT TO IGNORE IT SO ADDED BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO TONIGHT FORECAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS SMALL BUT KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW A DRY WEATHER PATTERN AFTER THE DISTURBANCE PASSED
SO KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WORDING THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST. THE ONLY THING THAT MAY CHANGE THIS IS A SHEAR LINE
PUSHING DOWN INTO THE MARIANAS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A SHEAR LINE FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. MODELS SHOW IT PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
AND SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING BRIEFLY NEAR PAGAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE SHEAR LINE AND THIS WILL
GIVE IT A PUSH SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY. IT MAY REACH TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS ROTA OR GUAM. DID NOT ADD THIS TO
FORECAST AS THIS IS THE FIRST MODEL RUN TO DEPICT THIS SOLUTION.
WILL LIKE TO SEE CONFORMATION FROM OTHER MODELS AND FUTURE MODEL
RUNS TO BOOST CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING.

WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
THURSDAY. IT MAY GET BREEZY THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
BEFORE AN INCREASE THURSDAY.

EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THIS
EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET ON EAST FACING REEFS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS
WERE GENERATED BY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PUSHED OFF
OF JAPAN. WW3 PREDICTIONS HAVE THE SWELL AT 2 TO 3 FEET. THE
NAVGEM WW3 PREDICTIONS SHOWED A HIGHER VALUE WHICH AGREED WITH A
MANUAL WIND AND WAVE CALCULATION A FEW DAYS AGO. THE NAVGEN WW3
TODAY DID SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE FROM ITS EARLIER PREDICTION SO
LOWED THE NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHT A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT SURF OF 5
TO 7 FEET ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME HAZARDOUS
SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A DRY PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE AT ALL
LOCATIONS IN THE REGION. 00Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE ISLANDS...WHILE THE SWATH OF STRONG TRADES IS
RETREATING TOWARD THE DATE LINE. CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL DEPICT
A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE DATE LINE OVER THE WEEKEND AND REACHING
MAJURO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MIXED SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA WITH BOTH TRADE-
WIND WAVES AND A SMALL NORTH SWELL. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
AT KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SURF SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED TODAY AND ARE
NO LONGER HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT AT MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AT YAP AND CHUUK THIS EVENING WHILE
SOME SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR KOROR. DRY PATTERN WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK AND YAP INTO THE WEEKEND.
STRONGER TRADES WILL BUILD IN AT CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND AND COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THEN. SHOWERS AT KOROR WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT WITH DRY PATTERN BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

STRONG WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA WILL PUSH A NORTH
SWELL TOWARD YAP STATE AND PALAU THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF WILL BUILD
ALONG NORTHERN EXPOSURES BUT SHOULD KEEP BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Guam

When
March 3, 12:00 AM GST to March 4, 12:00 AM GST
Where
Guam forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

On the 3rd of March at around 11:45 a.m. just off the east coast of Guam at Tongan Beach Resort in Ipan Talofofo, Guam, a resort lifeguard noticed that five tourists were going outside a designated swimming area. The Japanese tourists were at the resort celebrating their last day on Guam, and as the tourists wandered outside the designated swimming area the lifeguard was able to convince all but two of the swimmers to turn back. | Two men (a 23 year old male victim and his old boss in his 50’s), continued toward the channel in the reef and became distressed. The lifeguard rescued the 50 year old male, took him to a rock and told him to hold on. The lifeguard then made five attempts to rescue the second swimmer. The second swimmer was caught under some rocks outside the reef in the channel where the current was strong, and the lifeguard could not free him. | Guam Fire Rescue arrived at about 12:15 p.m. and freed the victim. While transporting him to the U.S. Naval Hospital they conducted CPR on the person, but he was pronounced dead later on. The drowning was apparently the result of a moderate to strong rip current in the area that they swam in.| Observations from Ipan Buoy not too far from this location indicated that the|swell was not too big, only 2 feet at 10 to 12 seconds. The sea height 5 to 6 feet, which is average. The long period of 10 to 12 seconds probably created a strong rip|current at the time the swimmers were in the area.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Guam2016-03-0323MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, March 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 620339.