A weak area of low pressure tracked across eastern Kentucky on March 3rd. The low pressure area caused a band of rain and snow to set up over northern Kentucky.
Every event with a place to put it; 15 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A weak area of low pressure tracked across eastern Kentucky on March 3rd. The low pressure area caused a band of rain and snow to set up over northern Kentucky. A stripe of heavy wet snow fell from near Georgetown eastward into eastern Kentucky. The heaviest snow fell along and north of the Mountain Parkway where 5 to 8 inches was reported in Morgan, Elliott, Johnson, Rowan and Magoffin Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 10:48 AM EST, 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1048 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1048 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA REMAIN RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TODAY. STILL THINK GUIDANCE IS STILL TOO WARM OVERALL SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. ALSO ALLOWED FOR MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT AS TEMPS DROP BACK TO THE FREEZING MARK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THE LOWER LAYERS ARE SATURATING...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 30 DBZ RETURNS ON RADAR PASSING THROUGH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE ARE MOVING OUT NOW AND THE LATEST SHORT RANGE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z...BEFORE RAMPING THINGS UP LATER TODAY. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...BROAD TROUGHING IS THE RULE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING WELL TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS. COLDER AIR IS CURRENTLY LOCKED IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS REPORTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST TREK TODAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH. MAINLY SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z...AS THE LOW LEVELS ATTEMPT TO SATURATE. THIS WILL COME DOWN AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY...BEFORE MIXING WITH AND TURNING INTO RAIN. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE BEST FORCING WILL ARRIVE FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AS THE COLUMN COOLS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BORDERING VIRGINIA. GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GROUND RECOVERING TO ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH SOME MINOR SLUSH ON THE ROADS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY...AS WET BULBING AND THE COLD START SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES FOR MOST. MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN/DRIZZLE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...SO ONLY EXPECT HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO SHORT WAVES FRIDAY NIGHT...ONE EXITING AND ONE LOCATED TO OUR NW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EXITING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD...WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE. ON ITS LATEST MODELED TRAJECTORY...THIS WILL BRING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF KY...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD CROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH HIGHEST QPF IN THE FAR EAST. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING AND EXACT COVERAGE ARE STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE MOST PRECIP TO THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM HAS A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND KEEPS BEST PRECIP NE OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING 12Z AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SE OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD WAA WITH RISING TEMPS EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT HAVE THE BEST WIND TRAJECTORY FOR STRONG SW FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION WILL BE LAGGING SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT DETER FROM TEMPERATURES WARMING MUCH ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXPECTED. WHILE STRONG RIDGING IS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...A STRONG TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OF THE WEST COAST...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY EVENING...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW...MAKING IT JUST NW OF THE OHIO RIVER BY TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE FAR SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL CREATE AN ALMOST BLOCKING PATTERN...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVEL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...BUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS UNABLE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE STRONG AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY PRECIP RELATED TO THE SURFACE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF KY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHERN/NW CWA...AND ONLY AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG RIDGING WILL LIKELY BREAK DOWN AFTER MIDWEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CONCENTRATED RIVER OF QPF TO PUSH FARTHER EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AT PLAY...AS WELL AS CONTINUED AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 70...WOULDN/T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT AFFECTS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 744 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SPREAD A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 19Z...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN. AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN THIS EVENING...SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN AND CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS...BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JVM SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 359 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 359 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET IN FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD TO MONTICELLO ON WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GEOGERIAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-104-106>110-112-119-120-031730-
ELLIOTT-BATH-WOLFE-ESTILL-FLEMING-BREATHITT-MAGOFFIN-ROWAN-FLOYD-
MONTGOMERY-MARTIN-MENIFEE-MORGAN-POWELL-JOHNSON-PIKE-
1034 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016
...AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOW AND RAIN WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
AT 1029 AM EST...AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS OVER RED RIVER
GORGE...OR NEAR CAMPTON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIKEVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...MOREHEAD...PAINTSVILLE...WEST LIBERTY...
PRESTONSBURG...STANTON...FLEMINGSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...OWINGSVILLE...INEZ...
SANDY HOOK...FRENCHBURG...CAMPTON...MARSHALL...MASON...SIMPSON...HENRY...
LEWIS AND COAL RUN VILLAGE.
VISIBILITIES COULD DROP QUICKLY TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THIS
AREA OF SNOW AND RAIN. A BRIEF DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM
THIS...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY IN WINTER WEATHER SITUATIONS. BE
PREPARED FOR SNOW OR ICE COVERED ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA
TIME WHEN TRAVELING.
&&
LAT...LON 3852 8363 3839 8340 3819 8327 3827 8317
3817 8292 3796 8300 3788 8261 3796 8253
3767 8229 3753 8198 3736 8224 3772 8371
3772 8409 3781 8412 3783 8400 3793 8397
3812 8408 3832 8384 3846 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 1529Z 248DEG 37KT 3781 8361
GREIFThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 heavy snow, 7 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Up to 4 inches of snow was reported in Jeffersonville. KSP reported multiple accidents occurred on I-64 due to slick, snow covered roads early in the afternoon.
Snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches were reported across the county.
Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches were reported across the county, with the highest amounts in the southeast part of the county.
Snowfall ranged from 2 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused numerous traffic accidents across the county and on I-64.
Snowfall ranged from 2 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused numerous traffic accidents across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 2 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused numerous traffic accidents across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 2 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused numerous traffic accidents across the county, including the Mountain Parkway.
Snowfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches were reported across the county. Several vehicles were stranded on area roads due to the quickly accumulating and heavy, wet snow.
Snowfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches were reported across the county, with the highest amounts in the northern part of the county.
Snowfall amounts of 4 to 5 inches were reported across the county.
Snowfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches were reported across the county, with the highest amounts in the northwest part of the county.
Snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches were reported across the county.
Snowfall amounts ranged from a dusting over the southern end of the county up to 3 inches at the NWS office near Jackson.
Snowfall ranged from 1 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused traffic accidents across the county.
Snowfall ranged from 1 to 3 inches across the county. The snow was heavy and wet and caused traffic accidents across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 629080, 629087, 629088, 629096, 629097, 629099, 629100, 629089, 629090, 629091, 629093, 629094, 629113, 629114, 629116.