Thunderstorms developed over eastern Iowa and shifted east into northern Illinois in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms produced isolated damaging winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LOT wrote it up.
Thunderstorms developed over eastern Iowa and shifted east into northern Illinois in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms produced isolated damaging winds. The main threat was along and west of the Interstate 39 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 6:14 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 714 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 714 PM CDT Northern Ogle & Winnebago County storm did finally exhibit a better defined wind signature, necessitating first SVR issuance. Also monitoring Lee County segment for potential intensification and severe issuance. Given potential for isolated/scattered severe gusts to reach counties just to east/northeast, opted to locally expand the watch to include Boone, DeKalb and McHenry counties. RC Previous update from 641 PM CDT Limiting factors mentioned in previous meso AFD seem to be preventing more robust updrafts (including marginal effective shear and fairly weak midlevel lapse rates). As broken line of storms progresses east northeast across western CWA cores have been pulsy but generally remaining below severe limits. With DCAPE values at or above 1000 j/kg according to SPC mesoanalysis, still cannot rule out isolated gusts to 50 to 60 mph from the strongest cores. Given very pulsy nature of the updrafts, threat for any severe criteria hail appears very isolated. Unless some signs of congealing and cold pool growth are seen shortly, overall strong to severe threat appears it will remain limited and isolated. With MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg likely to wane fairly quickly toward and beyond sunset, thunderstorms should show a downward trend intensity wise with time this evening. For all these reasons, not anticipating needing to expand the going watch eastward. RC && .SHORT TERM... 217 PM CDT Through Sunday... Low clouds have finally lifted Northeast of Chicago, and has allowed for the surface to received direct light/heating. This has pushed surface temps into the lower 80s, the abundance of low level moisture and dewpoints in the mid 60s, will likely struggle to allow temps to warm much more then the lower 80s. The far urban heat island effect from the South/Southwest winds could see a few 85-86 degree values this afternoon near Chicago. Otherwise the main concern will be on the potential for isolated severe storms mainly along and west of interstate 39. A decent cumulus field has developed in the wake of the lower clouds from this morning, but vertical growth has been slow given the weak warm layer aloft. But expect as the afternoon progresses the vertical structure will increase allowing parcels to quickly produce greater depth to the cumulus clouds. Further west across Iowa is a mid-lvl wave that is helping to agitate the environment more and producing some larger ascent and a few thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. Most hi-resolution guidance suggests a narrow channel of vorticity will elongate as it slips East and become oriented from near LaCrosse WI south through West Central IL, but as the vort lobe pushes East the depleting issue could be the lack of direct heating and we begin to lose the diurnal component. This could limit the severe threat further East this evening. That being said, there is some concern that given the dew points being anomalously high that a broken line of storms could develop and ride East along the moist layer towards the Chicago metro between 2-3z. The main threats/hazards for Northern IL from any storms will likely be damaging wind gusts up to 70mph and perhaps an isolated hail to quarter size. Convection should quickly diminish around 4-6z, with much of the overnight expected to be quiet and dry as a weak diffluent zone lifts overhead. The 500mb trough axis will be steadily pivoting East overnight, arriving overhead closer to daybreak but becoming negatively tilted. Lapse rates will steepen by midday Sunday, however the lack of forcing and some drier air arriving could limit precip/convection to areas North/Northeast of IL. Have opted to go with a dry Sunday to account for this, but could see the need to bring back a 15-19 POP if the dry air is stubborn to arrive. Highs will likely push back into the low 80s again Sunday. Beachler && .LONG TERM... 204 PM CDT Sunday night through Friday... The upper low will dampen and shift east of the region Sunday night. Broad surface high pressure will form in its wake and bring a generally drier start to the extended period. A subtle trough/weak cold front will move through overnight with weak energy sliding southeast in slightly more progressive WNW flow aloft. Most guidance is dry with its passage but we cannot rule out an isolated shower. Memorial Day is shaping up to at least start off fairly nice and stay that way for most areas in spite some increasing clouds. After the weak trough passage, a ever so slightly cooler and less humid air mass will remain in place. To our west warm moist advection will resume after the gulf of Mexico is temporarily cut off by the transient surface high. Most of the convection looks to be tied to daytime heating. Some guidance including the GFS/GEM attempt to bring some of this into our area. The NAM shoves the moist air mass south suggesting a better push with the front, and the EC keeps convection to our west. Given the mixed signals but favoring a drier solution as is currently forecast, have trended that direction. Model guidance does show a diurnal weakening Monday evening, but suggests some overnight development again to our west that will attempt to push into our area into early Tuesday, but chances remain tempered given the weak ridging, southeasterly drier surface flow. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms returns Tuesday through midweek in response to a storm system that will move east through the Dakotas Tuesday. A warm and humid air mass will return in the southwest flow ahead of this system with an undisturbed feed from the gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm chances appear highest Wednesday and Wednesday night as forcing from the low is much closer to the region. Cooler and drier weather will eventually take hold for the latter half of the week as a modest cold front shifts in with dewpoints dropping back through the 50s making it feel comfortably and seasonably cool. KMD && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs... Broken line of TSRA over western IL expected to track eastward this evening...affecting the Chicago area terminals by mid-late evening. Anticipating this band of storms to begin weakening with sunset...so confidence in TSRA vs just SHRA decreases into the Chicago area. Once that band moves through look for VFR conditions the remainder of the TAF cycle with gusty southwest winds veering to west Sunday afternoon. Izzi && .MARINE... 204 PM CDT While fog has lifted across the lake, it is expected to return again tonight into early Sunday, and the marine dense fog advisory will be extended until tomorrow. A warm front has pushed north of the lake this afternoon with breezy southerly winds in place. The low will shift to western Lake Superior by Sunday night, which will maintain southwest winds to 25 kt today and to 20 kt Sunday with elevated waves on the north half. The low will strengthen as it moves northeast to James Bay Monday morning. A weak cold front will moves across the lake Monday morning which will shift winds only slightly to the west southwest, with a secondary potentially stronger cold front will allow for a wind shift to northeast at least for the north half. Lighter winds remain place through Tuesday before strengthening out of the southeast in response to low pressure that will cross the Dakotas Tuesday and move to western Lake Superior late Wednesday. KMD/DLB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
292015-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 /410 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM RISK...WITH AN ASSOCIATED:
LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
LIMITED HAIL RISK...UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK...UP TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION:
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
39 CORRIDOR.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
THURSDAY...
LIMITED THUNDERSTORM RISK.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH.
&&
LMZ740>745-292015-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-292015-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO RETURN PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE AGAIN TONIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LAKE PERIODICALLY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
KMD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGOSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 553 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ILZ008-282345- OGLE IL- 553 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN OGLE COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM CDT... AT 553 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LANARK...OR 10 MILES EAST OF MOUNT CARROLL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORRESTON... ADELINE... A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LAT...LON 4220 8969 4220 8942 4217 8938 4198 8968 TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 219DEG 31KT 4205 8978 BMD
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ILZ010-290015- LEE IL- 638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM CDT... AT 638 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WALNUT...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARMON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE... I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 46. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LAT...LON 4178 8963 4164 8929 4158 8941 4158 8963 TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 210DEG 33KT 4156 8958 BMD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0634 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S DURAND 42.41N 89.33W
05/28/2016 M57 MPH WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
IZZIThe Chicago radar (KLOT), 104 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:13 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Structural damage to a building in town. There are also a number of trees down. There are 2700 people without power in the county. Several trees and a powerpole down at the Lee County Fair Grounds.
Measured on a personal weather station.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 646105, 646108.