Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, May 28, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Scattered thunderstorms southwest of the forecast area are beginning
to form into a line. A shortwave will bring this line of storms into
the forecast area from late afternoon into the evening. More daytime
heating will be available in the the western forecast area as the
storms move through, so better bet for a few severe storms there.
A severe thunderstorm watch is thus in effect for western portions
of the forecast area. SPC is highlighting damaging winds is the
primary severe threat, though some large hail and a tornado are not
out of the question.

Storms should exit the east by mid/late evening, with dry weather
then expected overnight.

The main trough axis is expected to move through on Sunday, bringing
a chance for a few showers and storms. Should see decreasing precip
chances and clouds from southwest to northeast later in the day, so
have mildest temps in the southwest. Temps will be above normal
again.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast confidence is high.

It looks like we'll have a warm and dry Memorial Day. High
pressure will take control with the column showing a significant
lack of moisture. So, should see abundant sunshine with highs in
the lower to mid 80s. If we do see any showers, it would be later
in the afternoon and most likely along the WI/IL border southwest
of Madison, but that threat looks low enough that we can leave it
out.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Ridging will slide east, allowing a very slow moving trough to
approach then move through the Upper Midwest during this period.
Look for showers and storms from time to time with the best chance
for rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. The surface trough/front
will likely exit far eastern Wisconsin by early Thursday morning.
Some lingering showers on Thursday and turning a bit cooler with
lower dewpoints.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is medium.

Cooler high pressure settles across the area. This looks like a
dry period.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected into tonight (other than lower
conditions possible in storms). A line of showers and storms will
likely arrive in the western forecast area by late afternoon,
progressing eastward across southern Wisconsin during the evening
hours. Could see a strong/severe storm or two, particularly from
Madison westward.

A chance for showers and storms will linger on Sunday as the upper
trough moves through. Models are suggesting a return of some lower
ceilings for a while as the trough slides through.

&&

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will keep some patchy fog over the nearshore waters
at times through tonight. The fog could be briefly dense. Southwest
to west winds Sunday should bring an end to the fog.

A few gusts to 25 knots are not out of the question through late
this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Overall though,
conditions seem too borderline for a Small Craft Advisory.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Davis

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-292030-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING.  A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WIND.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

ONCE THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH...THAT SHOULD MARK THE END
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-292030-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
318 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM MAINLY THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1044 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TORNADO          BRANDON                 43.74N 88.78W
05/27/2016                   FOND DU LAC        WI   NWS STORM SURVEY

            SURVEY TEAM HAS DETERMINED THE TORNADO TO BE
            AN EF1. BEGIN TIME 5:35 PM ABOUT 1/2 MILE
            SOUTH OF BRANDON. END TIME 5:52 PM ABOUT 4
            MILES NORTH OF BRANDON. TOTAL PATH LENGTH OF
            4 1/2 MILES. TORNADO DURATION 17 MINUTES.

&&

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEM