Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, May 28 to 29, 2016

Name: Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, May 28 to 29, 2016
Start: 2016-05-28T17:12
End: 2016-05-29T08:45
Location: Texas

May 28 to 29, 2016 · NWS EWX · 29 events in 8 counties and zones

Thunderstorms developed in a moist, conditionally unstable airmass along an outflow boundary from the previous day's convection in north Texas. Some of these storms produced large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain that led to flash flooding.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 1
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 29

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 28, 2:04 PM CST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 2:04 PM CST, 3 hours 8 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
At 230 PM, South Central Texas surface analysis showed
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s, showing the entire CWA as quite moist and
unstable. North and west of the CWA a dry line was positioned from
just west of Sanderson to Sheffield up to Sweetwater. Latest
RAP/HRRR/LAPS soundings show capping eroding west of a line from
Uvalde to Junction. Weak capping is holding on in SAT/AUS per the
same forecast soundings. Aircraft soundings out of KSAT also show
weakening but still decent cap. With convective temperatures right
around 90-92 degrees and surface temperatures near 90 south of the
Plateau...believe convective initiation will take place in the
next 1-2 hours within the slight risk area SPC has annotated.

With SBCAPE values very high again and DCAPEs AOA 1000 j/kg, very
large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat.
While the upper level support is lacking currently due to broad
ridging overhead...a shortwave disturbance is progged to enter the
Big Bend region after 7PM. This weak upper level support coupled
with the high instability, decent shear, steep lapse rates, and
theta-e convergence along the dry line, think the slight risk area
is laid out well for this afternoon and evening. Thinking the
tornado threat is rather low but 0-3 km SRH values are in the
150-200 range this evening west of I-35 and LCLs are lowest south
of the escarpment (Winter Garden), so cannot rule out one in this
area.

Thinking storm coverage should wane before midnight as we lose
instability. Tomorrow looks to be a very similar pattern with
afternoon/evening convection along the dry line out west again.
SPC has included the same general area in a slight risk with the
same threats as well for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A southwest flow regime will set up for the week with weaker
shortwaves impacting the moist air mass over the region through
Tuesday. Included 30-40 PoP values for both Monday and slightly
higher Tuesday as these pass over.

The next significant storm system for South Central Texas looks to
be on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Models are
indicating 1-3 inches of storm total rainfall associated with this
system and with the moist soils from the last few days heavy rain
event, flash flooding would be the main concern Wednesday.
However, the progression of the cold front looks fast enough at
this time that training shouldn't be an issue but due to the
antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat will be possible
regardless.

Late in the week, the cold front should result in a drier and
cooler air mass at least through Saturday. Temperatures should be
below normal, with highs in the 80s for the first week of June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  87  71  85  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  87  71  85  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  88  71  86  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  85  69  84  69 /  30  30  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  89  73  87  71 /  50  30  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  85  69  84  69 /  20  30  30  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  89  72  87  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  86  71  86  69 /  20  30  30  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  87  72  86  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  88  72  86  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  89  73  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 3:10 PM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO BOERNE TO HONDO...THEN NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HONDO TO UVALDE TO DEL RIO. THERE IS A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A SECONDARY THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LAND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER POTENTIAL OF STORMS
MID-WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM
POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:14 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

13 hail, 12 flash flood, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Medina

When: May 28, 5:12 PM CST
Where: Medina County, 0.69 mi N of Ellstone
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 29.290, -99.130

Hail, Medina

When: May 28, 5:30 PM CST
Where: Medina County, 1.51 mi SSW of Hondo
Measured: 2 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 29.330, -99.160

A thunderstorm produced two inch hail near Hwy 173 south of Hondo.

Hail, Medina

When: May 28, 6:05 PM CST
Where: Medina County, 1.38 mi N of Ellstone
Measured: 4.5 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 29.300, -99.130

Hail, Kerr

When: May 28, 6:50 PM CST
Where: Kerr County, 0.91 mi NW of Camp Verde
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 29.890, -99.110

Hail, Gillespie

When: May 28, 7:35 PM CST
Where: Gillespie County, 2.98 mi W of Harper
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 30.300, -99.300

Hail, Gillespie

When: May 28, 7:50 PM CST
Where: Gillespie County, 6.02 mi NE of Tivydale
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 30.300, -99.090

A thunderstorm produced one inch hail near the intersection of Hwy 290 and Reeh Rd. between Fredericksburg and Harper.

Hail, Uvalde

When: May 28, 8:05 PM CST
Where: Uvalde County, Sabinal
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 29.320, -99.470

Hail, Gillespie

When: May 28, 8:30 PM CST
Where: Gillespie County, 3.65 mi SW of Harper
Measured: 1.25 in hail
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 30.260, -99.290

Hail, Uvalde

When: May 28, 8:50 PM CST
Where: Uvalde County, 0.69 mi N of Sabinal
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 29.330, -99.470

A thunderstorm produced quarter size hail about a half mile north-northeast of Sabinal.

Hail, Uvalde

When: May 28, 8:54 PM CST
Where: Uvalde County, 10.38 mi N of Sabinal
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 29.470, -99.480

Hail, Uvalde

When: May 28, 8:55 PM CST
Where: Uvalde County, 10.32 mi SSE of Utopia
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 29.480, -99.470

Thunderstorm Wind, Kerr

When: May 28, 9:05 PM CST
Where: Kerr County, 7.28 mi SW of Legion
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 29.960, -99.220

A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 60 mph at the Quiet Valley Ranch on Hwy 16 southwest of Kerrville.

Flash Flood, Kerr

When: May 28, 9:40 PM CST to May 29, 1:30 AM CST
Where: Kerr County, 2.53 mi ENE of Ingram to 2.8 mi ENE of Ingram
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 30.092, -99.190

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing low water crossings on Goat Creek Rd.

Hail, Real

When: May 28, 10:05 PM CST
Where: Real County, 6.4 mi SE of Vance
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 29.750, -99.930

Flash Flood, Kerr

When: May 28, 10:56 PM CST to May 29, 1:30 AM CST
Where: Kerr County, 3.34 mi E of Ingram to 2.82 mi E of Ingram
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 30.080, -99.174

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding. A house on West Ln. was flooded and the family evacuated.

Flash Flood, Bandera

When: May 29, 12:00 AM CST to 1:30 AM CST
Where: Bandera County, 0.69 mi N of Bandera Flying L Arp to 0.78 mi N of Bandera Flying L Arp
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Storm Chaser
Coordinates: 29.730, -99.050

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding washing travel trailers and trucks off the road at Doe Creek and Hwy 16 just east of Bandera. The USGS rain gauge on the Medina River at Bandera, approximately one mile upstream, reported 6.44 inches of rain since 7 PM.

Flash Flood, Bandera

When: May 29, 12:18 AM CST to 1:30 AM CST
Where: Bandera County, 4.04 mi N of Bandera Flying L Arp to 1.81 mi N of Bandera Flying L Arp
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.778, -99.043

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding resulting in two high water rescues in Bandera. One was near Lower Mason Creek Rd. at Chipman Ln. and the other near River Bend Dr.

Flash Flood, Kendall

When: May 29, 1:06 AM CST to 1:30 AM CST
Where: Kendall County, 0.25 mi SE of Comfort to 0.42 mi SE of Comfort
Cause: Heavy Rain
Deaths: 1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 29.968, -98.917

A young lady drowned on Cypress Creek near the intersection of Highway 27 and Water Street in Comfort. The car was swept off into the creek due to heavy rain. Two occupants made it to safety. One other occupant drowned and was recovered several miles downstream.

Flash Flood, Kerr

When: May 29, 1:08 AM CST to 1:30 AM CST
Where: Kerr County, 1.38 mi ENE of Center Pt to 1.32 mi ENE of Center Pt
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.940, -99.010

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing Government Crossing of FM1350 at the Guadalupe River. We received a report of 3.00 inches of rain in one hour approximately five miles upstream of this point.

Flash Flood, Uvalde

When: May 29, 1:34 AM CST to 3:45 AM CST
Where: Uvalde County, 0.75 mi SSW of Sabinal to 0.87 mi NW of Sabinal
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 29.310, -99.476

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing several roads in and around Sabinal.

Flash Flood, Uvalde

When: May 29, 1:34 AM CST to 3:45 AM CST
Where: Uvalde County, 7.8 mi SSW of Utopia to 6.27 mi SE of Utopia
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 29.519, -99.587

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing several roads between Utopia and Sabinal.

Thunderstorm Wind, Medina

When: May 29, 2:11 AM CST
Where: Medina County, 0.92 mi NE of Coal Mine
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 29.240, -98.810

A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 60 mph that tore shingles off a roof, knocked down a tree, and blew a trampoline down the street in Lake Shore Estates.

Flash Flood, Bandera

When: May 29, 2:22 AM CST to 3:30 AM CST
Where: Bandera County, Bandera to 1.36 mi NNE of Bandera
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.720, -99.070

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding resulting in numerous high water rescues in and around Bandera.

Thunderstorm Wind, Bexar

When: May 29, 2:45 AM CST
Where: Bexar County, 7.8 mi NNW of Macdona
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Storm Chaser
Coordinates: 29.430, -98.760

A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 60 mph that blew down a section of wooden fencing in the Rolling Oaks Estates subdivision.

Thunderstorm Wind, Bexar

When: May 29, 2:50 AM CST
Where: Bexar County, 4.27 mi W of (Skf)kelly Afb San A
Measured: 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.395, -98.701

A thunderstorm produced wind gusts estimated at 70 mph that damaged a church roof and a tall road sign at the corner of Big Mesa Dr. and Buffalo Pass Dr.

Hail, Bexar

When: May 29, 3:04 AM CST
Where: Bexar County, 2.83 mi SSE of Helotes
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 29.540, -98.690

A thunderstorm produced quarter size hail and wind gusts estimated at 55 mph.

Flash Flood, Kerr

When: May 29, 3:20 AM CST to 6:30 AM CST
Where: Kerr County, 1.8 mi NNW of Center Pt to 1.41 mi N of Center Pt
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 29.953, -99.045

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing Hwy 27 near Centerpoint along the Guadalupe River.

Flash Flood, Bexar

When: May 29, 5:30 AM CST to 5:45 AM CST
Where: Bexar County, 5.04 mi WNW of Atascosa to 5.34 mi NW of Atascosa
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 29.310, -98.800

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing Macdona-Lacoste Rd. near the Medina County line.

Flash Flood, Bexar

When: May 29, 6:25 AM CST to 8:45 AM CST
Where: Bexar County, 1.19 mi SSE of Jarratt to 1.33 mi SSE of Jarratt
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 29.265, -98.691

Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that caused flash flooding closing Kinney Rd. at Moore Rd.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Flash Flood, Kendall	2016-05-29	23	Female	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Direct

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, May 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 637918, 637919, 637920, 637921, 637922, 637923, 637924, 637925, 637926, 637928, 637929, 637930, 637931, 637932, 637933, 637934, 637935, 639334, 637944, 637945, 637947, 637949, 637950, 637951, 637952, 637953, 637954, 637955, 637956.