Funnel Cloud in Florida, July 5, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.AVIATION...
East coast terminals should be drier today with VFR. A stray
morning or early afternoon shower could pop up near the terminals,
but the majority of the convection should be inland of the east
coast terminals. APF and TMB could see showers and thunderstorms
near the terminals this afternoon and early evening. Gulf sea
breeze is expected to develop around 16z today & convection should
retreat west by 03z tonight. Brief bouts of MVFR are possible with
showers & IFR with a direct impact from +TSRA.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016/

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND BELOW NORMAL POPS FOR REST OF THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
The 500 mb high pressure will continue to build to 595-597 mbs over
the Western Atlantic waters today into Wednesday while extending
west into Central Florida. This will keep an easterly wind flow
over South Florida today into Wednesday. At the same time, the
Saharan air will continue to work into South Florida from the
Bahama Islands. This weather pattern will limit the showers and
thunderstorms to mainly over the western areas of South Florida
this afternoon and again on Wednesday afternoon. The pops over the
western areas of South Florida will be at most 30 percent today
and only 20 percent on Wednesday.

With the limit of the showers and thunderstorms over South Florida
today and again on Wednesday, high temperatures will be able to
warm up into the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to the mid
to upper 90s over the interior areas. These high temperatures are
near the record highs for this time of year. The relative
humidity will also be up through this time allowing for the heat
indices to get up into the lower 100s over the metro areas to the
103 to 105 degrees over the interior areas. At this time, it looks
like the heat indices will remain below the heat advisory
conditions, but will continue to monitor the conditions today into
Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
The 500 mb high will slowly weaken and move southward into South
Florida late this week. However, the saharan air will remain over
South Florida for at least Thursday before dissipating Thursday
night. Therefore, the weather will be mostly dry over South
Florida on Thursday except for ma slight chance of pops over the
western interior areas. On Friday, some moisture will return to
the area from the south as the winds will be more southerly
direction. This will allow for more showers and thunderstorms on
Friday especially over the interior areas.

High temperatures will still be near record highs late this week,
with highs in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to the mid
to upper 90s over the interior areas. Heat indices will also
remain in the lower 100s over the metro areas to 103 to 105
degrees over the interior areas.

LONG TERM...
The 500 mb high will then move back into Central Florida from
South Florida this weekend, and remain over Central Florida early
next week. However, the 500 mb high will only be around 590 mbs
this weekend into early next week. This will allow for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon along
the sea breezes with the focus over the interior and west coast
metro areas.

High temperatures will also be back to near normal conditions
over South Florida this weekend into early next week, with highs
around 90 over the metro areas to lower to mid 90s over the
interior areas.

MARINE...
The winds will easterly today into Thursday before going more
southerly on Friday. The winds will then become easterly again
this weekend. The wind speeds will be less than 15 knots today
into this weekend. This will keep the seas at 3 feet or less in
both the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida today into this
weekend.

CLIMATE...
      	    	7/5/16         7/5/16          7/6/16        7/6/16
CITIES  	 HIGH SO FAR    RECORD HIGHS   FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS
Miami         	 93          97 - 1992          93          95 - 2009
Ft Lauderdale    92          95 - 1949          92          97 - 1954
Palm Beach       93          96 - 1914          93          95 - 1998
Naples           93          95 - 1990          93          96 - 1944

      		   7/7/16          7/7/16          7/8/16        7/8/16
CITIES  	FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS   FORECAST HIGHS  RECORD HIGHS
Miami        	 93          95 - 2009          93          94 - 2009
Ft Lauderdale    92          97 - 2009          92          98 - 1932
Palm Beach       93          97 - 1980          93          96 - 1963
Naples           93          96 - 2001          93          97 - 1945

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  93  80  93  80 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  82  92  82 /  10  10  10  10
Miami            93  81  93  81 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           93  77  93  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Aviation...02/RAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
052015-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO MIAMI-DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
409 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...FEWER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FAVORING INTERIOR AND WEST AREAS...
...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
OF 40 MPH OR GREATER, PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN AREAS OF HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES: HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
103 DEGREES OVER METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO AS HIGH AS 105
DEGREES OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORM WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
FAVORING INTERIOR AREAS.

HIGHEST HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 102 TO 107 DEGREES, HIGHEST OVER THE
INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL OR FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.