Several bursts of elevated northwest swell brought low end high surf.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGX wrote it up.
Several bursts of elevated northwest swell brought low end high surf.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Diego, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 9:00 AM PST, 4 hours earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING
A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
ANOTHER WARM-UP EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT
RE-BUILDS AND STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW MOVES IN. LOCALLY STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE PASSES...CANYONS AND
COASTAL FOOTHILLS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON
MONDAY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS...RESULTING IN DECREASING TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO COOLING TREND AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FOG OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND UP INTO POINT CONCEPTION...WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING AND COMPARING TO YESTERDAYS 12Z SOUNDING...THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED SLIGHTLY UP THROUGH 600 MB.
MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH
GRADIENTS OF 9.3 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH AND 13.3 MB FROM SAN
DIEGO TO SALT LAKE CITY...WHEREAS THE GRADIENTS WERE 10.3 MB AND
14.8 MB RESPECTIVELY AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...NORTHEAST
TO EAST WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE IN THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS. THE WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO BRING MINOR COOLING TO THE COAST
TODAY...BUT HIGHS ELSEWHERE WILL STILL BE 10-20 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 25 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE INLAND COASTAL
AREAS...VALLEYS AND LOWER DESERTS...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S...MID-TO-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND HIGH DESERTS...70S AT THE
LOWER MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND THE LOW 60S AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.
WE MAY HAVE A FEW STATIONS REACHING RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SLOWLY BEING NUDGED EAST...WITH A TROUGH FAR TO THE WEST.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO WEAKEN TONIGHT...IT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME DENSE FOG TO REACH THE COASTAL AREAS UP TO A FEW MILES INLAND
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY WILL CREATE SOME COOLING FOR
SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION. THIS...IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTING
FROM STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WILL CREATE
ANOTHER WARM-UP...WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING 10-20 DEGREES...AND
LOCALLY 25 DEGREES...ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE
WARMEST DAYS...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT A FEW TO
SEVERAL STATIONS POSSIBLY GETTING BROKEN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH STRENGTHEN TO
ABOUT 7-10 MB SUNDAY...AND THEN 11-16 MB MONDAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER
SUPPORT INCREASES AS WELL...WITH 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
REACHING ABOUT 10-20 KT ON SUNDAY...AND THEN 15-30 KT ON MONDAY.
THUS...LOOK FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS ON
SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH IN THE
PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND THEN WINDS STRENGTHENING
FURTHER MONDAY...WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS REACHING 40-50
MPH AND LOCALLY 55 MPH IN THE PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS A LITTLE ON TUESDAY.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND WE TURN BACK ONSHORE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...CREATING COOLER
CONDITIONS. THE LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW DEEP AND STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z
RUN...SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVING BY
TO OUR NORTH...LEAVING US MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER...WETTER AND SLOWER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 00Z
CANADIAN SEEMS TO SHOW COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
121600Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
WITH VIS 2SM OR LESS JUST REACHING THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...POSSIBILITY VCTY KSAN/KCRQ...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
800 AM...FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1SM OR LESS MAY MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
800 AM...A LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES WILL BUILD
TODAY...PEAKING SATURDAY AT 9 FT/18 SEC. THIS WILL GENERATE HIGH
SURF OF 4 TO 8 FEET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST SETS NORTH OF
NEWPORT BEACH AND SOUTH OF DEL MAR. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TODAY THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. SWELL AND SURF WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN OFFSHORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SUNDAY...WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS 25-
40 MPH IN THE PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...AND THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON MONDAY...WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST GUSTS 40-50
MPH AND LOCALLY 55 MPH IN THE PASSES/CANYONS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TO CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE.
HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS
AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS TROUGH COULD PRODUCE
WETTING RAINS NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY
COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
Mission Beach Lifeguards reported 6 to 8 ft surf.
Surfline reported 5 to 7 ft surf.
Solana Beach Lifeguards reported 4 to 7 ft surf.
High surf forced the closure of the Ocean Beach Pier.
Mission Beach Lifeguards reported 8 ft surf.
Solana Beach Lifeguards reported 4 to 7 ft surf.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 618829, 618843, 618835, 618833, 618831, 618836.