A tight pressure gradient due to low pressure located over central Baja California caused gusty easterly winds and localized wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
A tight pressure gradient due to low pressure located over central Baja California caused gusty easterly winds and localized wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 10:10 AM MST, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1010 AM MST MON SEP 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A persistent low pressure system will bring gusty winds
today, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
midweek. A gradual drying trend will then occur during the latter
part of the week, with dry conditions returning area-wide Sunday.
Expect cooler temperatures today, then daytime temperatures
returning closer to normal late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers producing light rain amounts were
occurring across southeast AZ at this time. IR satellite imagery
depicted the coldest topped clouds to be from near the Tucson metro
area south-to-southeastward across Santa Cruz/Cochise Counties.
Meanwhile, east surface winds at elevations below 5000 feet were
generally in the 5-15 mph range.
A low pressure system aloft was centered over central Baja
California, and this system is expected to remain quasi-stationary
into this evening. The 26/12Z Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and the 26/15Z HRRR
were quite similar with depicting a decrease in shower coverage into
this evening. Scattered showers with perhaps embedded thunderstorms
may then return especially across eastern sections late tonight into
early Tuesday morning.
Based on these solutions, some minor PoP adjustments into this
evening will be forthcoming. Will also remove any mention/depiction
of thunder this afternoon and evening. The other forecast challenge
of significance into this evening is regarding wind speeds,
especially at elevations below 5000 feet. Given various 26/12Z
guidance, may opt to cancel the Wind Advisory for locations below
5000 feet during the next few hours.
Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 27/18Z.
Scattered -SHRA into this afternoon followed by decreasing coverage
of -SHRA tonight. Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA developing late Tuesday
morning, especially southwest of KTUS. MVFR conditions with
higher terrain obscurations will occur into this evening, then mainly
VFR conditions to prevail into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, cloud
decks will mainly be 6k-10k ft AGL thru the period. Surface wind
ely/sely at 8-18 kts with gusts to near 25 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers today with decreasing coverage
this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Tuesday, and some strong thunderstorms may occur especially from
Tucson west into western Pima county. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms exists Wednesday into Thursday mainly east of Tucson,
then showers and thunderstorms Friday into this weekend should be
limited to near the New Mexico border.
Gusty east winds will occur into this evening, and 20-foot winds
will likely be in the range of 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Winds
will decrease somewhat Tuesday followed by elevated southwest
afternoon winds during the latter part of the week.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /240 AM MST/...A break in the showers this evening
then redeveloping overnight as the upper low starts to lift north.
This low will start to tap into some tropical moisture from tropical
depression 18E. For Tuesday afternoon there is the potential for
isolated severe storms mostly west of Tucson. Can't rule out areas of
blowing dust.
The upper low is progged to be over southern California on Wednesday
with a chance of showers/storms across the eastern half of forecast
area.
A chance of showers/storms Thursday across eastern sections as upper
low opens up in advance of upper level trof approaching Pacific NW.
Drier air moving across the area on Friday will limit chance of
storms near the AZ/NW border.
Well below normal high temperatures today with gradual warming trend
by late in the week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-504-507-
508-511>515.
&&
Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/TucsonThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Sustained easterly winds at 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph caused multiple power poles to be bent down along Madera Canyon Road. At least one will need to be replaced.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659808.