The excessive amount of rain that fell over the region during September caused flooding to occur along the Mississippi River. Both McGregor and Guttenberg (Clayton County) experienced flooding that continued into early October.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
The excessive amount of rain that fell over the region during September caused flooding to occur along the Mississippi River. Both McGregor and Guttenberg (Clayton County) experienced flooding that continued into early October.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 26, 1:30 PM CST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Models in good agreement with taking a closed 500 mb stacked low, currently just north of Lake Superior, nearly due south on Tue. Piece of upper level energy slated to swing around the low, driving across the local area during the afternoon. Inverted trough hangs west of the stacked low, with weak frontogenetic forcing along it, dropping southward through the region during the afternoon/evening. Add in cold air advection in the 925-700 mb layer and there will be ample forcing mechanisms for areas of showers. The chance for wetting looks a lot more likely now compared to previous days. Amounts won't be much, generally 1/10 of an inch or less. Higher threat for showers in the east. The low pressure system will take its time dropping southeast, moving over southern MI by 18z Wed, toward the Ohio River valley Wed night. Not as much upper level support, but good low level lapse rates persist, and with the low just to the east/cyclonic flow, shower chances will persist mostly for WI on Wed. Should be more scattered in coverage compared to what is expected for Tue. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 As the trough slips southeast on Wed, the models cut the closed upper level off from the mean flow, having it wobble over the oh/tn river valleys. Toward the weekend, the GFS/Canadian start to lift the upper level low northeast, swinging it over the New England states. This solution would bring a much needed, prolonged period of dry weather to the region with temperatures right around the late September normals. However - the EC continues to be an outlier, but consistent within itself. The EC would retrograde the low back northwest, moving it over the eastern Great Lakes for the weekend. More clouds and the threat for showers would extended westward into at least Wisconsin as a result. Eventually, the low would get a shove east for the start of the new work week from a ridge/trough combo pushing in from the west. Going to keep the forecast dry for now...but consistency of the EC is starting to give its solution some weight. The slowing down of the GFS/Canadian solutions also suggest that they all might settle into something inbetween what the 3 are leaning toward. Something to watch. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 Brisk/gusty W to NW sfc/low level winds will be the main issue at the TAF sites this period. Good VFR conditions expected thru tonight/Tue morning as the drier W/NW low/mid level flow continues over MN/IA/WI. Perhaps a few diurnal cu/strato-cu in the 5K-6K ft range during the afternoons. Tighter pressure gradient over the area this afternoon along with warming/mixing to around 850mb to result in W/NW winds 15-25kt G25-35kt thru about 23z, with the stronger winds across the higher terrain, open country areas like KRST. Winds to diminish to 10-15kts this evening with diurnal cooling/ stabilization. May yet need a mention for LLWS later tonight/early Tue if sfc winds drop below 10kts, as winds around 2K ft progged to be in the 30-35kt range around 12z Tue. Winds increase again later Tue morning with diurnal warming/deeper mixing. Some relax of the gradient and winds aloft for Tue, with winds after 15z mostly 10- 20kt G20-25kt. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && SHORT TERM...Rieck LONG TERM....Rieck AVIATION...RRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 339 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055-061-271000- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE- CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU- ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT- 339 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NO ACTION NEEDED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 132 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-262200- MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE- CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSAGE...CRESCO...DECORAH...WAUKON... CHARLES CITY...NEW HAMPTON...OELWEIN...ELKADER...WABASHA... DODGE CENTER...ROCHESTER...WINONA...AUSTIN...PRESTON...CALEDONIA 132 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016 ...BRISK AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WERE COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND START TO DIMINISH AFTER 5 PM. THESE WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT FOR THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHT-WEIGHT VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COULD ALSO TOPPLE TREES THAT HAVE BEEN WEAKENED BY STORMS EARLIER THIS SUMMER OR THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS. RRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Runoff from heavy rain pushed the Mississippi River out of its banks in McGregor. The river crested less than a foot above the flood stage at 16.87 feet. The flooding continued into early October.
Runoff from heavy rain pushed the Mississippi River out of its banks in Guttenberg. The river crested just over the flood stage at 15.22 feet. The flooding continued into early October.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660596, 660619.