Monsoon moisture moved northern over northern Arizona and provided the fuel for strong thunderstorms to develop with hail, strong winds, and flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Monsoon moisture moved northern over northern Arizona and provided the fuel for strong thunderstorms to develop with hail, strong winds, and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 28, 2:41 AM MST, 6 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 241 AM MST TUE JUN 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoon activity will be on the increase over the next few days as a moist southerly flow develops across Arizona. Look for showers and thunderstorms each day with the best potential for heavy rain arriving on Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure was centered over the four corners region during the early morning hours leaving the door open for the flow of moisture from the south and southeast. For today...weather conditions will be very similar to those on Monday. Not looking at much additional moisture so storms will tend to be high based producing gusty winds in the 30-50 mph range and brief/localized downpours. The main difference is that storm activity in Arizona will extend further north to the Utah border. For Wednesday through Friday...The high center gradually shifts to a position over Texas with southerly flow developing across Arizona. The southerly flow pattern will be favorable for deep moisture over Northwest Mexico and the Gulf of California to move northward. In addition, there will be a good chance for a convective blow-up in Mexico (known as a mesoscale convective complex) which could induce a Gulf of California surge pushing additional moisture into the state. We'll be keeping and eye on Thursday and Friday because those two days show the best potential for storms producing extremely rain. From Saturday onward...The flow becomes more westerly with origins from over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Under this regime look for a bit of drying and stabilization with a downturn in thunderstorm activity anticipated. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z Package...Light SHRA persisting this morning mainly west of a KPGA-KFLG line. Scattered TSRA will redevelop aft 18Z Tues. Local wind gusts up to 35 kts and moderate rain possible with storms. Storm coverage to decrease by 03-06Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...An active monsoon pattern in place across northern Arizona will produce daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storm motion will be from southeast to northwest today becoming very light on Wednesday. Expect erratic and gusty winds near showers and storms. Thursday through Saturday...The active Monsoon weather pattern will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day and close to average temperatures across northern Arizona. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...McCollum AVIATION...MCS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:31 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Radar estimated 2 inches of rain storm total. The Sheriff Office reported water up to car door in downtown and south of downtown. Pea and dime sized hail was also reported with this storm.
The Page ASOS reported a peak wind gust 59 MPH from a thunderstorm.
Radar estimated that 0.5 to 1.2 inches of rain fell over the Cedar Fire scar. A 12 to 18 inch crest moved down Cedar Creek and through the town of Cedar Creek. This is the first of many post fire floods that happened during the summer of 2016.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 642832, 642834, 642821.