Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, June 28, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

H5 analysis from this morning has broad northwesterly
flow across the central CONUS. High pressure was located across
southern Colorado and over southeastern Utah. Embedded on the
periphery of this high a couple of shortwaves were noted. The first
over northwestern Arizona and a second over southeastern New Mexico.
North of the high, a nice shortwave was noted over the Idaho
panhandle. Across the eastern CONUS, a trough of low pressure
extended from eastern Ontario south into the upper Ohio Valley.
Little or no height falls were noted across the CONUS this morning
with the exception of the upper midwest where 50 to 90 meter falls
were noted over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high
pressure was located over Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas.
Southwest of the high, southeast and southerly winds were noted
across western and north central Nebraska. An area of multi-cell
thunderstorms had bisected the forecast area today, and as of 3 PM
CDT, was exiting Custer county. Skies were clear to partly cloudy
and 3 PM CDT readings were in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Surface based thunderstorms will develop across the northern
Nebraska panhandle and southwest South Dakota late this afternoon.
Initially supercells with large hail and damaging winds are
expected, with right storm motion to the SSE. Later this evening an
MCS should evolve with a bowing segment and damaging winds possible
across southwest Nebraska by mid evening. Farther east across north
central and central Nebraska, thunderstorm development will be
possible as well, but the most widespread activity will be across
western Nebraska closer to the shortwave aloft.

Expecting that an outflow boundary will be pushed well south of the
area Wednesday by tonight's MCS. This could limit the thunderstorm
potential some Wednesday afternoon. The most likely scenario will be
for development in the upslope favored areas of the Nebraska
panhandle, western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming during the late
afternoon. Shear supports some of these being severe. Other storms
aided by a shortwave aloft may form across southern South Dakota by
late afternoon as well, these could track into northern nebraska by
Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Mid term: Wednesday night through Friday: In the mid range,
thunderstorm chances are the main forecast concerns. For Wednesday
night, the shortwave currently over northwestern Arizona, will
rotate around the western periphery of the upper level high and will
cross northern Colorado on Wednesday. At the same time, a second
disturbance will track southeast from Montana and will approach the
western CWA Weds afternoon. The surface focus for thunderstorm
initiation will be somewhat in doubt though and will be dependent on
the strength and location of thunderstorms tonight and where the
boundaries lie down on Wednesday. There is some disagreement with
the GFS and NAM solutions this am on where the surface focus will
lie. The NAM has this boundary well south of the forecast area Weds,
which would favor location west and south of the forecast area for
the bulk of convection Weds night. In fact, the NAM this morning
lifts the Montana shortwave into northeastern Nebraska Weds night
and focuses the bulk of convection there while leaving the west dry.
The GFS soln is not as aggressive pushing the boundary west and south
and is preferred attm. That being said, have placed my highest pops
in the west and north for Weds night. On Thursday a reinforcing shot
of surface high pressure will build south into the Dakotas and
eastern Nebraska. This will keep the surface boundary locked down
across Kansas. Winds will be from the east on Thursday leading to
highs in the upper 70s to near 80. With the surface boundary well
south and west of the forecast area, precipitation chances will be
most favored in the south and west with dry conds expected in the
northeastern CWA. For Friday, the surface high will lift east into
Minnesota, switching the winds to the southeast, which will allow
the frontal boundary to lift north and east into the panhandle and
northeastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances will expand east into
the remainder of the CWA for Friday/Friday Night as the frontal
boundary lifts onto the high plains of western Nebraska.

Long term: Saturday through Tuesday: A low amplitude pattern will
continue across the central CONUS through the weekend into next
week. This will facilitate an active weather pattern with periods of
showers and thunderstorms continuing. With the downstream pattern
becoming more zonal next week, warmer air will push into the region
from the swrn CONUS. This will allow highs to reach back into the
upper 80s lower 90s after highs in the lower to mid 80s this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Thunderstorms are expected to track southeast across western
and southwest Nebraska this evening. Erratic gusty winds and IFR
can be expected within thunderstorms, otherwise VFR should
prevail.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Minor flooding is occurring along the North Platte river
at Lewellen and a flood warning was issued earlier today. Minor
flooding is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours at Lewellen.
River levels along the North Platte river at North Platte will
remain elevated through the weekend. However, at this time, no
flooding is expected along the North Platte river at North Platte.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
HYDROLOGY...Buttler

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-291800-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 /1158 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A VALENTINE TO
BROKEN BOW LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA AS A FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO OSHKOSH.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
425 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ094-282315-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-
425 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...

AT 425 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 23
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GORDON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGAN LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 188 AND 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4249 10205 4264 10194 4254 10169 4241 10171
      4235 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 269DEG 9KT 4253 10192

TAYLOR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
459 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

NEZ004-094-282345-
WESTERN CHERRY NE-SHERIDAN NE-
459 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 459 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BATESLAND...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF GORDON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GORDON...CLINTON...SHELL LAKE STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
IRWIN...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 27 AND MILLS ROAD...LONE BUTTE...
HOOVER LAKE...INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 20 AND IRWIN ROAD AND BAYONNE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 98 AND 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT FOR
THE PANHANDLE OF AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4283 10176 4260 10233 4300 10239 4300 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 318DEG 25KT 4299 10221

TAYLOR