A thunderstorm dropped heavy rain over the Juniper Fire scar. This caused flash flooding and debris flows over Highway 288.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm dropped heavy rain over the Juniper Fire scar. This caused flash flooding and debris flows over Highway 288.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 3:18 PM MST, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 318 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Deeper subtropical moisture moving into Arizona from the south will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms spreading northward through Saturday. Overnight showers and thunderstorms will develop in response to an upper level trough. Drier air will move in behind this trough with a drying trend from west to east from Saturday to Sunday. Another weak low moving through the Southwest region on Monday may bring a few light showers to northern Arizona mainly along the Utah border region. Otherwise a high pressure ridge will build in from Tuesday onward bringing in more typical hot and dry June weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION...Strong convection is developing in Southeastern Arizona this afternoon. Convective activity has been more limited in northwestern Arizona due to a combination of lower moisture levels and extensive cloud cover. The latest SREF, European and American GFS models continue to show thunderstorm coverage expanding northwestward through the evening hours as a upper level trough moves northward across the state. Deeper subtropical moisture continues to move up into Arizona from the south this evening. An upper level trough moving around the western edge of the ridge will help with both the moisture advection into northern Arizona and provide some convective forcing during the overnight hours. Due to the upper level disturbance there is a chance for convection in southern Arizona to send outflows northward into central Arizona with thunderstorms riding the outflow convergence boundary. Around 8pm the upper trough will move into Yavapai and Gila counties helping to initiate evening showers and thunderstorms. This upper trough will continue to move northward helping to spread nocturnal isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity across the northern third of the state. Saturday and Sunday...As the trough moves northward drier Pacific air moves into Arizona starting on Saturday into northwestern Arizona while deeper moisture lingers in Apache and Navajo counties. Expect a west to east drying trend through the weekend. A cut off low approaching Arizona from the west will bring increasing southwesterly winds on Sunday with sustained winds in the 15 to 20 mph range along with gusts up to 30 mph. On Monday...The cut off low will move across the Utah border region with low chances for a few light showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday through Friday...The subtropical ridge builds into the Southwest with more typical June hot and dry weather forecast into next weekend. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Current radar imagery shows scattered thunderstorms along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage and spread northward through the overnight hours. The best chances for showers will be along and southwest of a line from Greer to Winslow to Tusayan. Erratic winds with gusts to 45 kts will be possible near the strongest storms. In addition, periods of MVFR visibilities are possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect increasing high-based shower and thunderstorm activity from southeast to northwest through the overnight hours. Strong and erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. On Saturday, lingering moisture will cause a round of scattered high- based storms, primarily over higher terrain. Gusty southwest winds and mainly dry conditions are expected on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Slight chances for thunderstorms are forecast Monday. Dry weather and a warming trend forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...Bohlin AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...RR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
158 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
AZZ017-102115-
WHITE MOUNTAINS AZ-
158 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL APACHE AND SOUTHERN
NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MST...
AT 156 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES EAST OF TURKEY CREEK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WHITERIVER...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
APACHE AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 3360 10992 3400 10972 3383 10949 3361 10960
3361 10961 3359 10961 3358 10962 3359 10963
3358 10967 3357 10968 3356 10967 3356 10968
3354 10969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 107DEG 22KT 3376 10968
RRSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
447 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
AZZ013-016>018-110030-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AZ-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY AZ-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AZ-WHITE MOUNTAINS AZ-
447 PM MST FRI JUN 10 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GILA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MST...
AT 442 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINETOP-LAKESIDE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF SHOW LOW. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...TAYLOR...CEDAR CREEK...CLAY
SPRINGS...CARRIZO...LINDEN... PINEDALE......ARIPINE...SHUMWAY...FOOL
HOLLOW LAKE CAMPGROUND...LEWIS CANYON GROUP CAMPGROUND...AND CIBECUE.
LAT...LON 3383 11033 3383 11051 3385 11056 3383 11061
3452 11051 3446 11000 3371 11017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 000DEG 0KT 3408 11010
MASThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 62 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:43 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced between 0.50 and 1.25 inches of rain over the Juniper Fire scar. Debris flows closed Highway 288 at MP 277 at Pocket Creek. Reynolds Creek washed out the highway at MP 286. There was a minor washout on Cherry Creek Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, June 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 632509.