Strong Wind in California, June 10, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
213 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong gusty winds will continue into this evening as low
pressure and a cold front approach. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely mainly south of Highway 50 Saturday late afternoon into
Sunday. Some high Sierra snow could occur as well. Next week is
projected to have near to below normal temperatures overall with
occasionally breezy days, as low pressure parks just off
California.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Primary focus area was good potential for wetting rains south of
Highway 50 Saturday late afternoon through Sunday, and high
elevation snows in the mountains. Forecast includes slightly
increased rain amounts and a further north reach of showers.

Trough moving into N Cal will bring strong gusty winds to the
region through this evening, with much lighter winds expected this
weekend. Simulations continue to show part of the trough breaking
off over central/southern California, producing an area of broad
lift over the Sierra into central Nevada Sat late afternoon into
Sunday. This pattern favors numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms for areas mainly south of Hwy 50, which is a little
further north than previous guidance. 50th percentile of recent
model QPF brings showers even into Tahoe, Reno on Sunday so we'll
include a low chance in those areas.

Peak precip rates likely Sunday mid-morning into the afternoon
when lift, instability, moisture best combine. Looking at the
water vapor loop, you can see a possible source of some of that
moisture from thunderstorms last night in far northern Mexico. Our
thunderstorms Sat/Sun not expected to be too strong given somewhat
limited surface based instability, but even with clouds Sunday
lapse rates aloft are sufficient for embedded storms. Main issue
will be potential for wetting rains for Mono/Mineral Counties with
simulations showing 0.25 to 0.5" not out of the question. More
importantly we could see light snowfall above 10,000 ft in the
Sierra and White Mountains with 700mb temps dropping to +1 to +2C.
Convective cells could drag the snow level even lower, maybe to
9,000 ft. We're messaging the impacts and preparedness to hikers,
campers since this snow would be somewhat unusual for mid June.
-Chris

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

While the overall weather pattern continues to indicate cooler and
breezy conditions next week, we made a few minor adjustments around
the middle of the week. Medium range guidance came in a little more
aggressive with the southerly progression of a shortwave rotating
around the main trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, so we added
a slight chance for rain showers in far northeast CA/northwest NV
next Wednesday-Wed night. A second wave brushing across northern CA
on Thursday may bring a few more showers to western Lassen County.
Rainfall totals for both days are likely to be light.

Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon and evening. Currently
the most favored days for the strongest wind potential are Tuesday
and Wednesday, when some gusts around 40 mph are possible. The days
with the strongest winds and the peak gust values may fluctuate a
bit due to variances in the track and location of this low.

Temperatures will start the week a bit above normal, then cool down
from Tuesday-Thursday due to the effects of this trough. We trended
highs down a couple more degrees next Wednesday and Thursday,
keeping temps in the 60s from Susanville-Gerlach northward.
Otherwise, highs mainly in the 70s to lower 80s are expected most
lower elevations for the middle of next week before warming up
slightly by Friday. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty W-SW winds will continue thru this evening, with peak gusts
near 35 kt for the main terminals. Peak gusts over Sierra Ridges
will be near 65 kt thru this evening with lee side mountain wave
turbulence across Eastern CA-Western NV. Surface winds will shift to
northwest by late evening and may remain around 10 kt overnight at
KRNO-KCXP-KMMH. Lighter winds are expected this weekend as the main
low splits, while a weaker low moves into Southern CA.

While wind will be less of a concern this weekend, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly from US-50 southward
Saturday afternoon, then may reach as far north as I-80 on Sunday.
This could lead to MVFR cigs/vsby at the main terminals (especially
for KMMH) and some obscurations of higher peaks. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A red flag warning remains in effect into this evening for the
Western Nevada Sierra Front in Zone 450. Conditions have been
somewhat marginal, but more locations are reaching criteria today
than yesterday. Generally, RH has been 10-20% for locations below
5000 feet, but winds have been consistently gusting in the 35-45
mph range elevating the potential for rapid fire growth. One fire
in North Reno has occurred and quickly moved up the hill slope
despite the fuels being rather sparse. The bottom line continues
to be that the fire danger remains high.

Winds will decrease late this evening and RH will rise for valley
locations. However, winds will remain gusty for ridges and some of
the mid slopes along the Sierra while a dry slot moves through the
region. Fortunately, fuels are still green with above average
moisture for higher elevations. Winds will not really be a factor
for fire concerns over the weekend. Wind do increase again by the
middle of next week, and we could enter another period of fire
weather concerns.

There will be some isolated thunderstorms tomorrow and Sunday
afternoon. We could see a few dry lightning strikes over
Mono/Mineral Counties, but coverage is not expected to be
excessive. As for Sunday, the chances of wetting rains increase
with a deeper moisture column removing concerns for dry lightning.
Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ450.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno