Scattered thunderstorms producing very heavy rain moved west across Cochise and Pima Counties and caused flash flooding in southeast Tucson and southwest Cochise County.
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The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms producing very heavy rain moved west across Cochise and Pima Counties and caused flash flooding in southeast Tucson and southwest Cochise County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 1:15 PM MST, 6 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 115 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...An active monsoon pattern will remain in place through at least the middle of this week resulting in plenty of afternoon and evening thunderstorms and occasional overnight storms. Starting today, but especially Monday into Tuesday, a disturbance aloft combined with deep moisture will result in an increased threat of heavy rain and localized flooding. With the abundant moisture and storms, temperatures will be cooler through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Convection has been slow to develop thus far, as early afternoon visible satellite imagery reveals a stubborn deck of low and mid clouds just south of the international border. This has kept temperatures much cooler than normal around Nogales, Douglas, and points south with 20z readings barely breaking the 80 degree mark. Meanwhile to the north, skies have managed to clear and storms are beginning to fire along the Mogollon Rim. The developing cu field across Cochise County suggests the Chiricahua mtns will be the next area to go. Meanwhile across the lower desert elevations, conditions remained relatively quiet. Temperatures in/around Tucson were in the mid/upper 80s as of 20z. Hi-res convective allowing models have been insisting that convection would develop along the international border and merge with storms coming off the Rim. While the Rim storms are materializing as expected, the storms near Nogales and Douglas are running a few hours behind (thanks to the aforementioned stubborn cloud cover). Seeing some suggestions that the operational and experimental HRRR runs are capturing this trend. Even the HRRR-TLE seems to be backing off slightly and not bringing storms into the area until several hours later than previously thought. I made some minor downward adjustments to PoPs along the US/Mex border through late afternoon but I left the remainder of the forecast unchanged. I'm still anticipating storms to develop given the presence of the nearby MCV, pwats around 1.6-1.7 inches, and MUCAPES around 1000 J/Kg, it's just a matter of tapping into that instability at this point. Areal coverage may not be as great as what has been seen the past few days, but still warrants PoPs that are well above climo. The atmosphere remains favorable for storm development through at least Thursday. As such, the chance for afternoon/evening storms will remain elevated in line with consensus and ensemble guidance. It's hard to be certain if it will materialize at this point, but the GFS and NAM have both been hinting at the possibility of nocturnal convection developing late Monday night and affecting most of southeast Arizona into Tuesday morning. Not ready to buy into that entirely given the complexities of forecasting this time of year, but it bears watching especially since steering flow will be light and warm rain processes tend to be quite efficient. Looking deeper into the forecast, troughing is forecast to set up late in the week and eventually bring drier air into the area. While this seems plausible and likely, the operational models tend to scour out BL moisture too quickly and while the models would suggest Thursday and Friday to be relatively quiet across the area (especially west of Tucson), I'm a bit skeptical based on observed model biases. Made some minor upward adjustments to PoPs Thursday and Friday to at least include the possibility of storms across Pima and Pinal Co's, then retained the drying trend into next weekend. Temperature wise: afternoon highs will struggle to reach normal through the end of the week given much higher than normal BL moisture, but will eventually reach and exceed normals by the weekend as BL moisture wanes slightly. && .AVIATION...Valid through 02/00Z. Increasing SHRA/TSRA through afternoon. MVFR conditions around stronger TSRA due to heavy rain. Winds generally 10 kts or less except for thunderstorm outflow, with brief gusts to 50 mph possible with stronger TSRA. TSRA chances diminishing after 01/05z...however some SHRA chances remain through the morning hours. Another round of TSRA Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through most of the new week...with occasional storms occurring overnight. Strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain will occur with the strongest storms as they will be efficient rain producers, so heavy runoff issues are a concern. Winds will generally be light except those associated with thunderstorms where gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible. With plenty of moisture in place, daytime temperatures will be below average along with higher humidity levels into Wednesday or Thursday. A slow drying trend will start late in the week. && .TWC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 609 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2016 AZZ507-508-512-513-010200- EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL MONUMENT- 609 PM MST SUN JUL 31 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MST... AT 608 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DOUGLAS AREA MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOUGLAS...BISBEE...BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT...PIRTLEVILLE...JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 80 AND 90...MCNEAL AND NACO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3165 10925 3134 10910 3134 11002 3168 11010 TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 086DEG 7KT 3146 10954 MOLLERE
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 82 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:31 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding along Highway 80 northwest of Bisbee.
Heavy rain of 1 to 2 inches in a short time flooded several roads in southwest Cochise County including Moson Road near Hereford, Charleston Rd between Sierra Vista and Tombstone and Davis Rd between Tombstone and McNeal.
Heavy rainfall measured at nearly 3.5 inches caused flash flooding near Interstate 10 and Kolb Rd. Three vehicles became stranded in flood waters but no injuries occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 654626, 654627, 654563.