A Hurricane Force low was well established over the western Gulf on the night of 1/25. This system was so large that it had a strong frontal system in the eastern Gulf.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A Hurricane Force low was well established over the western Gulf on the night of 1/25. This system was so large that it had a strong frontal system in the eastern Gulf. A series of gale force to storm force lows developed along this system that moved northward along the outer coast then recurved back into the western Gulf. One of these systems caused extensive damage in the Edna Bay harbor late on 1/25 |wrecking boats in the harbor. Max gusts in these systems were 75 to 80 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 4:15 PM AKST, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
415 PM AKST MON JAN 25 2016
.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
YET WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE (PROGGED AT 956 TO 958 MB) OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS PARENT LOW, A LOW IS TAKING
SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT
THERE IS A DUAL JET FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVEL. THE LOW IS ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
NORTHERN JET, AND THE LEFT EXIT OF THE SOUTHERN JET. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SOUTHERN JET IS PROGGED TO PEAK AT 140 KT. THERE IS A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THIS LOW, AND
THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
AT AROUND 60 TO 70 MPH THIS EVENING, SPREADING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK BY WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND DIXON ENTRANCE BY
TUESDAY EVENING, AND THEN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM CROSS SOUND BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN JUMPS INLAND INTO SOUTHERN YUKON
TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS EVENING, SOUTHEAST WIND 50 TO 60 KT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
CLARENCE STRAIT NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE, HURRICANE FORCE WIND TO 65 KT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH WIND WARNING IN
STORE FOR PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, KETCHIKAN AREA, BARANOF ISLAND,
AND CHICHAGOF ISLAND. DO EXPECT GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THE VERY
STRONG WIND IS CAUSED BY A POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING IN
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 70 TO 80 KT INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
COASTAL AREA. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED, SO IT WON'T BE TOO
DIFFICULT FOR THE VERY STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO NEAR THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 60 TO 70
MPH. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THIS LOW WILL BRING IN ENOUGH MOMENTUM
AND THAT MAY TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE ALSO. IN SHORT, THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE A RAPID
PRESSURE RISE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. NORTH OF THE LOW, MOST
LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND INTO YUKON
TUESDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE A RAPID PRESSURE RISE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ENHANCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. SO IN SHORT, IT WILL BE A WINDY ONE FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
NOW SHIFTING GEAR TO PRECIPITATION. THIS LOW IS ALSO BRINGING IN
AMPLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE. HIGHER ELEVATION AND
INLAND LOCATIONS INCLUDING KLONDIKE HIGHWAY, HAINES HIGHWAY, AND
HYDER. EXPECT AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AS THE WARMER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW GET ADVECTED INLAND LATER TONIGHT FOR
HYDER AND TOMORROW DURING THE DAY FOR THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES
HIGHWAYS. IN SEA LEVEL LOCATIONS, JUST EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
WITH WIND SWEPT RAIN, IT WILL NOT BE PLEASANT TO BE OUTSIDE THROUGH
TOMORROW.
THIS LOW IS ALSO GOING TO BRING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE
PANHANDLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE SHOULD BE SEEING THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
MODEL OF CHOICE IS ECMWF AND NAM. ALSO UTILIZE HIGH RESOLUTION.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO FOCUS
ON SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BRIEF LOOK AT LONG TERM REVEALED PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF WEEK WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL STORM FORCE LOW MOVING IN TO BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
WEAKER PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE PACIFIC.
MORE MODEL SPREAD OCCURS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE
NEXT GULF LOW SO EXPECT SOME TIMING/STRENGTH CHANGES TO OCCUR WITH
UPDATED FORECASTS.
THE NEXT LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THEN SWING NORTH TOWARDS KODIAK. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED WEATHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN AK GULF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS HITS THE GULF ALONG THE FRONT WITH
POTENTIAL STORM FORCE BARRIER JET FORMING IN PKZ052 WITH GALES
EXTENDING DOWN TO PZK041. AS THE LOW CENTER WILL BE FURTHER WEST
THEN CURRENT WIND PRODUCING EVENT NOT EXPECTING OVERLAND WINDS TO
BE AS HIGH. 60-70 KT 925 MB LLJ LOSES ENERGY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT HITS THE PANHANDLE COAST. INNER CHANNEL WINDS WILL HAVE A
QUICK SPEED AND DIRECTION SHIFT AS WELL BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS,
FLIPPING N BY WEDNESDAY THEN BACK S WITH THE PASSING FRONT.
MORE HEAVY PRECIP WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE. 6 HOUR QPF VALUES NEARING HALF AN INCH FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW ONLY HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS SEE TO STAY COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW, AND POTENTIAL OF ADVY TO WARNING AMOUNTS AT THE BORDERS.
BY THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP
ONSHORE FLOW AND PRECIP LASTING INTO FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY,
BUT WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AND LIGHTER WINDS DUE TO WEAKER GRADIENT.
AS OF NOW BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THIS DRY PERIOD, SO EXPECT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IF NEW RUNS KEEP THE TREND.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ027-028.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027-028.
STRONG WIND FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ027-
028.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR AKZ024.
STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ025.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST TUESDAY
FOR AKZ022-023.
STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ022-023.
STRONG WIND TUESDAY MORNING FOR AKZ022-023.
STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ020.
STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AKZ021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ029.
STRONG WIND FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AKZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ019.
STRONG WIND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TUESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR PKZ036.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ022-033-035-041>043.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053.
&&
RCL/TPS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU6 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Edna Bay harbor got wrecked. Damage estimated at $20K. Trained spotter measured gusts to 70 mph early on the morning of 1/26.
Tower roof wind peaked at Ketchikan tower at 69 mph and 71 mph at the tide gauge on 1/26. Some power outages in town.
Public Radio in Wrangell reported power outages and very strong winds on 1/26.
Cape Spencer measured gusts to 74 MPH around 1000 on 1/26. Other headlands in the area had at least that much wind. No damage was reported at Elfin Cove or Pelican in the lee of the wind.
Port Alexander tide gauge measured gusts to 67 mph. No damage was reported.
Juneau Airport had gusts to 60 MPH on the morning of 1/26. Minor damage was reported in Thane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 617272, 617273, 617274, 617267, 617268, 617269.