Blizzard in Alaska, January 25, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 PM AKST MON JAN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 42 HOURS...THEN FAIR
AGREEMENT THE NEXT 42 HOURS OR SO...THEN MODELS ARE A MESS FOR
ABOUT 30 HOURS...THEN THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BEYOND THAT. WITH
THAT BEING SAID THE NAM HAS NOT BEEN GOOD AT ALL IN THE SHORT TERM
SO WILL LEAN AWAY FROM ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MOST PART. BIG CHANGE
IN THE MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY AS THEY NOW HAVE THE STRONG GRADIENT
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO OUR AREA.
THEY ALL INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...BUT
THE MAIN LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WAS ABOUT 3 MB LOWER THAN ANY
OF THE MODELS HAD IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST METHODOLOGY
USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST BY NUDGING THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE MAINLAND...BUT IT
DOES GET PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST A BIT TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO BRISTOL BAY...THEN PUSHES BACK OVER THE WEST COAST...BEFORE
BEING PUSHED BACK EAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A 503 DAM LOW NORTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHWEST. A 504 DAM LOW OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST TO 200 NM NORTH OF KISKA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
SOUTHEAST OVER ATKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 497 DAM. A 497 DAM LOW
OVER SAND POINT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING
AND OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 501 DAM...THEN BE
ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER ATKA. A 498 DAM LOW SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI
WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. A 497 DAM LOW IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW OVER ATKA OVER DUTCH HARBOR
EARLY THURSDAY. AT 850 HPA...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND THAT
MEANS WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES ROSE FROM AROUND 3 BELOW
CELSIUS YESTERDAY TO AROUND 1 BELOW CELSIUS THIS MORNING AND WILL
HOVER AROUND THE ZERO CELSIUS MARK THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN AROUND 953 MB LOW NEAR CHIGNIK
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE 50 NM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT 967 MB...THEN DRIFTS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLAND AND
DISSIPATES. A 945 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME INDICATION A WEAK LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WEDNESDAY MORNING. 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
78N 150W WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE WEST THEN NORTH INTO THE HIGH
ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF 75N INTO FRIDAY.
TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH INDICATIONS OF A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE BARTER
ISLAND AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 1025 MB HIGH PERSISTS
OVER SIBERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST AND AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH INTO
THE BERING SEA THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT TIGHTENS UP AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND NEAR THE STRAIT.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...TROUGH OVER THE COAST WITH
RIDGING OFFSHORE. A LITTLE PINCH IN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE BARTER ISLAND...PORT THOMSON AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...STRATUS...FOG...SOME BLOWING SNOW...JUST
ANOTHER FORECAST FOR THE ARCTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE SLOW
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH
EXCEPT AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE GUSTING TO 45 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR SHOWERS WEST OF THE YUKON RIVER WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER
THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH UP TO 3 MORE INCHES
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY THEN LEVEL OF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE BERING
STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 55 MPH WITH BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THINGS SETTLE DOWN.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH NEAR
THE COAST AND IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND LIGHT INLAND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SCRAPS OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND OVER THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL NOT DEVELOP AS
EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE...THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...THOUGH SOME STRONG GUSTS
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE TANANA JET IS HOWEVER STILL SET
UP SO SOME STRONG WINDS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO
15 MPH. WARMING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY THEN A SLOW
COOLING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204-AKZ213.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ235.

&&

SDB JAN 16