Blizzard in Alaska, April 10 to 11, 2016

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12 MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER TODAY AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS AS WELL AS VERIFYING MUCH BETTER TODAY AGAINST THE 18Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AS WELL AS FROM THE
00Z MODEL RUN WAS REASONABLE IN THE SHORT RANGE AND MID TERM AS
WELL AS THE LONG RANGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA...THE 513 DAM LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA CONTINUES
TO RETREAT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG A BARROW TO WHITEHORSE LINE WEAKENS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST TO A DEMARCATION POINT TO NORTHERN BRITISH COLOMBIA
LINE MONDAY MORNING. A 510 DAM LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
WEAKENS TO 513 AND DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
MONDAY AND WEAKENS FURTHER TO AROUND 524 TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH
AND WEST TODAY AND WILL INCREASE WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS
PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MODERATE CHINOOK FLOW.

ON THE SURFACE...WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE DIMINISHED TO
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...HOWEVER
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST MOVES NORTH
OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT. ONGOING WIND ADVISORIES WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ON ACCOUNT OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
TIMING. LIMITED PRECIP EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS WITH ONGOING MODERATE CHINOOK FLOW.
NORTH OF FAIRBANKS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
IN THE BROOKS RANGE WITH FAVORABLE UP SLOPE FLOW. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
EXPECTED. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA OVER THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN AND LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. ON THE NORTH SLOPE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1040
MB HIGH NEAR 75 N AND 150W CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE 984 MB
LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES NORTH.

UPGRADED ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW ON
THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS WITH ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN WINDS TONIGHT AND FALLING SNOW STARTING TOMORROW AS
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERIOR MOVES NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
MONDAY. WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON HOWEVER FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH THE STILL STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AK205.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

CCC APR 16