After heavy rainfall, flash flooding occurred along Robinson Creek just southeast of Falkville.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HUN wrote it up.
After heavy rainfall, flash flooding occurred along Robinson Creek just southeast of Falkville.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 6:29 PM CST, 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 629 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 .UPDATE... ENDED RAIN A BIT QUICKER ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO HAVE FOG FORMING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... AN UPDATE FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS...AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF NW ALABAMA...AS A STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA MOVES EASTWARD. AS OF THIS WRITING...SHOWERS WERE IN PROGRESS NEAR AND EAST OF A PULASKI TO ATHENS AND JASPER LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM AROUND THE AREA HAVE AVERAGED IN THE 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES SO FAR. GIVEN MINIMAL VEGETATION ACTIVITY...RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO RAPID RISES IN AREA STREAMS. MINOR FLOODING IN SOME OF THE MORE FLOOD PRONE SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING. GIVEN TRENDS OF FOG TO OUR WEST...HAVE INTRODUCED FOG AS A WEATHER ELEMENT FOR THE LATER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AFTER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG COVERAGE WISE. EVEN WITHOUT FOG ON THE GROUND...MANY LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED HAVE LOW CEILINGS...SOME ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. NOT MUCH EFFORT COULD HAVE THIS ON THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY AFTER CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES CLEARS LATER. FOG IN SOME AREAS COULD BECOME DENSE. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN AN UPDATE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. RSB && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ FOR 00Z TAFS... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE MAINLY CAUSED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOW CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. THE AREA OF RAINFALL HAS EXITED NW AL AND SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EXITING THE REST OF N AL/S MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. AFTER THE RAINFALL EXITS A LIFR CLOUD DECK STRETCHING TO AR WILL IMPACT THE REGION. WITH THE LOW CIGS, FOG FORMATION MAY ALSO LOWER VIS/CIG BELOW IFR AND SHORT TERM UPDATES TO TAF MAY OCCUR IF THE LOW VIS/CIG MATERIALIZES BTWN 16/04Z-16/14Z. AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT WILL BE A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE OCCURRING AT KHSV BY 16/02Z FROM NE TO NW. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 16/14Z WHEN MVFR CIGS RETURN. SL.77 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016/ SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EXIST OVER AL/MS. THE FIRST AND STRONGER OF THE TWO IS JUST EAST OF JACKSON MS AND IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER BEHIND ALL OF THE SEVERE CONVECTION OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH. THE OTHER WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF CULLMAN AL AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE NORTHERN SURFACE LOW IS ALLOWING FOR A FEW STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THE CROSS INTO THE COLD SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AND IS NOTED BY A FEW RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NW AL. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS STREAMING NORTH OUT OF WEST CENTRAL AL INTO THE TN VALLEY AS OF 20Z. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS ARRIVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND RAPID RISES IN SMALLER STREAMS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WATER WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW DOWN INTO THE LARGER BASINS AND RIVERS OF THE AREA AND BASED ON MOST RECENT FORECASTS ON THE RIVERS A FEW LOCATIONS WILL BE IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH, A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAVERING A BIT IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH TO THE BRING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. LATEST RUNS COVER MOST OF THE AREA IN LIGHT RAIN STARTING LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND END ALL RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHETHER OR NOT WILL SEE ANY RUMBLES OF THUNDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES INTO THE REGION. WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE BRIEF CAA BEHIND TODAYS DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE WAA SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS THE TUESDAY SYSTEM ARRIVES. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES EVEN UNDER THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE WAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE BETTER MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE GULF TO QUICKLY, ALBEIT BRIEFLY ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THE FORCING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE DUE TO THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE AND GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WILL HOLD OFF IN ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ARRIVES ON WED. BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS A CANADIAN HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD SEND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WED. INTO THUR. BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY, WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND THEN CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND A STILL ACTIVE WESTERLY JET STREAM LOCATED ALONG THE US/CA BORDER WE WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN TWO COMPETING AIR MASS REGIMES. THE TRANSITION POINT BETWEEN THESE TWO AIR MASSES LOOKS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SYSTEM OR TWO TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STUMPF && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-161100- LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN- MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN- 114 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN... WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR STREET FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
142 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0133 PM FREEZING RAIN MENTONE 34.58N 85.59W
02/15/2016 U0.00 INCH DEKALB AL AMATEUR RADIO
ICING REPORTED ON TREES AND POWERLINES, BUT NOT ON ROADS.
TEMPERATURE IS 34 DEGREES.
&&The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Three adults and two children were rescued from flood waters along Douglas Road between Piney Grove Street and West Piney Grove Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alabama in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Alabama, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 618473.