A strong upper level trough and cold pushed through the region during the evening of February 15th. Ahead of it, a squall line progressed across the area with reports of damaging wind gusts, mainly in the form of trees and power lines blowing down.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
A strong upper level trough and cold pushed through the region during the evening of February 15th. Ahead of it, a squall line progressed across the area with reports of damaging wind gusts, mainly in the form of trees and power lines blowing down.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 2:13 PM CST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Evening and Tonight...
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Latest regional radar and satellite mosaics continue to show an
area of developing convection upstream across portions of SE
Louisiana, S Mississippi, and WC/SW Alabama. A few isolated storms
were also developing over the Gulf of Mexico around 70-100mi SW of
Panama City. There is fairly good agreement amongst a variety of
model guidance in progressing these storms into our forecast area
late this afternoon and this evening. Adjusting for what appears
to be about a slight 1-2 hour slow bias in the HRRR, which
otherwise seems to be depicting trends fairly well, this could
bring more vigorous storms into the western parts of our area as
early as 22Z or so. Upstream convection is exhibiting a variety of
convective modes, but generally organizing into several line
segments and clusters. This is expected to generally continue as
storms move east, and some convection-allowing models even show an
evolution toward one predominant squall line. PoPs were kept high
over the entire area (80-100%), with the highest rain chances from
around 00-02Z in the west to 05-07Z in the east.
Some severe storms still appear possible across our forecast area,
particularly in western or southwestern sections - roughly near or
south of a line from Elba AL, to Chipley FL, to Blountstown FL, to
St. George Island. To be clear, severe storms won't necessarily be
limited entirely to the aforementioned area, that is just the
region with the greatest apparent threat. The overall intensity
of storms may diminish as they move further east in our area, due
to a stable layer of air near the cooler waters in and near
Apalachee Bay. This is evident in coastal observations along
Apalachee Bay with temperatures currently in the lower-60s.
Convection-allowing models seem to agree with this notion as most
depict an overall decrease in updraft velocities and surface wind
gusts once the storms arrive in the eastern half of our area.
Prior to that, though, conditions should be favorable for a few
severe storms over the western Florida Panhandle and perhaps
southeast Alabama. Low-level wind fields upstream near and just
ahead of the primary convective bands have been slightly stronger
than model consensus, and the low-level shear profile is only
forecast to improve around sunset. This may offset marginal
instability to produce a severe weather threat over a slightly
larger portion of the area than would otherwise be the case.
However, instability will still be key. So far in this event, most
severe reports upstream have been in areas with at least 59-60F
dewpoints. Looking at model forecasts, it seems as though
dewpoints at those levels could be a reasonable approximation of
the air mass that would be supportive of greater severe weather
probabilities. The main threats with any severe storm will be
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Large hail can't be ruled
out either, due to slightly steeper than normal mid-level lapse
rates (there have been large hail reports upstream with some
supercells).
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Fair and mild weather is expected behind the front for Tuesday and
Wednesday. A second upper level shortwave will dive
southeastward into northern Georgia on Tuesday, but most of its
effects in terms of cloud cover and light showers are expected to
remain north of the area. High temperatures are expected to range
from the middle 60s to lower 70s across the area with low
temperatures Tuesday night mainly in the 40s.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
A rather flat deep layer ridge will be the dominant weather
feature along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. This synoptic
pattern correlates well to fair and mild weather for our region.
Highs will be mainly in the 70s, and lows in the 40s. By early
next week rain chances may gradually increase again as a new upper
level trough develops across the region.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] Conditions have improved to VFR at all
terminals as of 1730Z. Some periods of MVFR CIGS can't be ruled
out through the afternoon at DHN or ECP, but most of the impactful
weather should hold off until this evening and tonight. A line
of storms should push through the area, affecting all terminals.
The storms are expected to reach ECP and DHN as early as 01Z, and
exit near VLD as late as 07Z. The storms may be accompanied by IFR
visibility and gusty winds over 30 knots. Near and just behind the
line of storms, some IFR-MVFR CIGS are also possible, with
clearing expected by sunrise.
&&
.Marine...
Advisory conditions are expected for all but the far eastern
waters through most of the night as a cold front moves through
with increasing winds and seas. Showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly severe, will also precede the front. Winds will shift to
the northwest then north behind the cold front late tonight and
Tuesday morning.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Showers and storms will move across the region tonight bringing
wetting rains to just about everywhere. Drier air will arrive
behind the associated front on Tuesday and Wednesday, but red
flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
The average storm total rainfall for tonight's system is expected
to be mostly between a half inch to one inch with some localized
higher amounts possible. The heaviest amounts are most likely in
southeast Alabama and adjacent sections of the Florida panhandle
and southwest Georgia, and the least amounts are expected across
the southeast big bend. While this will cause some rises in the
rivers, it is not expected to cause flooding.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 51 70 45 69 41 / 90 10 0 0 0
Panama City 51 62 50 64 46 / 80 0 0 0 0
Dothan 46 65 43 64 40 / 90 0 0 0 0
Albany 48 66 42 65 39 / 90 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 53 70 45 69 40 / 90 10 0 0 0
Cross City 57 72 45 71 41 / 70 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 53 64 49 66 45 / 80 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday FOR
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday FOR Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
726 PM EST MON FEB 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0710 PM TSTM WND DMG BLUFF SPRING 31.57N 86.07W
02/15/2016 COFFEE AL LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PART OF COFFEE COUNTY
&&
DVDThe Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 35 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:49 UTC.
52 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down onto County Road 185 near Bartlett Road.
Trees were blown down on Otter Pond Road near Highway 2.
Trees were blown down in Topsill State Park.
A tree was blown down in Ponce De Leon.
A tree was blown down just south of Bonifay.
A high tension power line was blown down on Highway 98 near Breakers Street resulting in a large power outage.
There were numerous reports of trees and power lines down throughout Washington County.
A tree was blown down onto the corner of a carport on the north side of Chipley. This was a public post to the WMBB-TV facebook page. There were also other reports of tree damage in Chipley.
A wind gust of 58 mph was measured at the Panama City tide gauge PCBF1.
Trees were snapped near Corbin Road and Highway 231. This was a public report posted on the WJHG-TV facebook page.
There were several reports of trees and power lines down throughout Jackson county.
A roof was blown off a house with numerous trees and power lines down across Marianna. Damage was estimated.
A tree was blown across SR-65 near Sumatra.
Multiple trees were blown down in Sumatra.
Trees were blown down on Greenough Road.
Trees were blown down on the 7700 block of Smith Creek Road.
Trees were blown down on Persimmon Road.
A tree was blown down onto a house near Carrabelle. Damage was estimated.
Indiana Street, Elder Stree, and Carl King Street in Lanark Village were closed due to downed trees.
Multiple trees were blown down in Sopchoppy.
Trees were blown down on Oak Park Road.
Trees were blown down on Friendship Church Road.
Trees were blown down on Mill Creek Road.
Trees were blown down on Council Moore Road.
Trees were blown down on Harvey Mill Road.
A tree was blown down onto a house near the 3200 block of Crawfordville Highway. Damage was estimated.
A peak gust of 81 mph was measured at the FSU Coastal and Marine Lab Weatherstem site on the Franklin county coast. There was also some tree damage in the area and light debris scattered such as metal siding. Minor damage also occurred to a greenhouse. Damage was estimated.
Trees were blown down on Wildwood Drive.
Trees were blown down on Coville Street.
Trees were blown down on Casora Drive.
Trees were blown down on Five Anchors Drive.
Trees were blown down on Anna Drive.
Trees were blown down on Thames Street.
Trees were blown down on W.F. Magers Road.
Trees were blown down on Beechwood Drive.
Trees were blown down on Powhaton Street.
Trees were blown down on White Oak Drive.
Trees were blown down on Solomon Drive.
A tree was blown down onto a house on Haida Trail. Damage was estimated.
Trees were blown down on the 2700 block of Wakulla Springs Road.
Trees were blown down on Walker Farm Road.
Trees were blown down on the 1500 block of Spring Creek Highway.
Trees were blown down on Rock Road.
Trees were blown down on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Blvd.
Trees were blown down on Highway 267 north of Highway 98.
Trees were blown down on Narvaez Trail.
Trees were blown down on the 2700 block of Shadeville Road.
Multiple trees were blown down.
Trees were blown down on Ivey Adams Street.
Trees were blown down on the 7200 block of Coastal Highway.
Trees were blown down on Natural Bridge Road near Old Plank Road.
Trees were blown down on W W Kelly Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 618673, 618674, 618675, 618676, 618677, 618678, 618680, 618679, 618681, 618682, 618683, 618684, 618685, 618686, 619354, 619389, 619358, 618687, 618688, 618689, 619355, 619356, 619372, 619384, 619390, 619391, 618690, 619364, 619365, 619366, 619388, 619385, 619351, 619352, 619359, 619368, 619371, 619386, 619362, 619367, and more.