Cold air remained in place across northern Georgia north of a stationary front over central Georgia early in the morning on Monday, February 15th. A developing surface low over the lower Mississippi Valley swept northeast during the day spreading moisture north over the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FFC wrote it up.
Cold air remained in place across northern Georgia north of a stationary front over central Georgia early in the morning on Monday, February 15th. A developing surface low over the lower Mississippi Valley swept northeast during the day spreading moisture north over the state. The stationary front surged northward allowing warmer and moderately unstable air to spread into central Georgia while maintaining colder and drier air over northeast Georgia. The moist unstable airmass over central Georgia combined with moderate to high low-level shear resulted in isolated severe thunderstorms with several reports of damaging winds. The precipitation associated with this system in the colder and drier airmass over northeast Georgia resulted in a period of light ice accumulation due to freezing rain and drizzle.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 1:16 AM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 116 AM EST MON FEB 15 2016 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016/ .UPDATE... FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATED FORECAST. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016/ .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS TODAY HAS WEDGED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA. STILL ANTICIPATE OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE WEDGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RETREAT OF THE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE WEDGE. AS FOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH EITHER ALL -FZRA OR -FZDZ WITHIN THE WEDGED AREA AND ELIMINATED ANY MENTION OF SNOW. THE OVERALL ICE AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO BEEN SCALED BACK A BIT. HAVE ISSUED BOTH A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AREAS EXPECTING TO SEE ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS /EVEN JUST A GLAZE/. AT THIS TIME...WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB INFLUENCE SHOULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE WEDGE ERODES...ALTHOUGH AREAS DEEP WITHIN THE WEDGE WILL NOT SEE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONE OF THE MAIN AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER THE STATE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SOME QPF...ALTHOUGH LOW...ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THAN WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE HI-RES AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES EXPECT PRECIP TO BE LIGHT -FZRA/-FZDZ. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE ALL RAIN BY 22Z MONDAY...WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ACCOMPANYING MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF RAIN MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT. TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...GFS AND NAM ARE BOTH PRODUCING SEVERAL HUNDRED CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND SO HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDER GENERALLY MONDAY EARLY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME SPC DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL OUTLOOK AREA JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS. AT THIS TIME...QPF CONTINUES TO REMAIN AT A REASONABLE 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACTIVITY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH. 31 && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS ARE CLEARING THE MOISTURE RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH ONLY THE NAM HOLDING ON TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUST TOUCH THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTH. AT THIS TIME ALL THE PRECIP WILL BE RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND MUCH WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO EXTREME NORTH GA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 17 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MOST OF SITES WITH DECREASING TO IFR AFTER ABOUT 16-18Z AS PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING. MVFR VSBYS ALSO LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AS BULK OF PRECIP FILLS IN AHEAD OF FRONT. ANY -FZRA OR -FZDZ LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF KATL THOUGH CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING WITH WEDGE IN PLACE...KAHN HAS BEST CHANCE THOUGH IN OCCURRING SO INCLUDED TEMPO. OTHERWISE THUNDER POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR AROUND 00Z IN THE EVENING WITH SOME VRB GUSTS. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO ESE AT 7-10 KTS THEN SWING SW TO WEST AFTER 04Z. IFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT WITH REDUCED VSBYS FOR MOST SITES. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM TO LOW ON INITIAL PRECIP CHANCES AND VSBYS. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 39 38 58 39 / 70 90 20 10 ATLANTA 45 40 58 40 / 90 100 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 41 35 50 34 / 80 100 30 30 CARTERSVILLE 45 39 57 38 / 100 100 10 10 COLUMBUS 64 45 63 43 / 80 90 10 5 GAINESVILLE 36 34 55 38 / 80 90 20 10 MACON 60 46 63 42 / 50 80 10 10 ROME 47 38 57 37 / 100 100 20 20 PEACHTREE CITY 50 41 59 39 / 80 100 10 10 VIDALIA 66 52 65 46 / 40 80 20 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FANNIN... FORSYTH...GILMER...GWINNETT...HALL...JACKSON...LUMPKIN... MADISON...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE. && SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA AVIATION...BAKER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 215 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113-151915- BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA- CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA- CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL- FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE- GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON- JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON- MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY- MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH- PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON- SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS- TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN- WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES- WILKINSON- 215 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THEREFORE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY WHERE ADDITIONAL ICING IS LIKELY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND ANY ICING ON TREES...POWER LINE AND ROADS THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.
The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 126 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:31 UTC.
8 winter weather, 4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A report of a trace amount of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces was received via social media in the Dawsonville area.
A report was received via social media of .01 inches of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces due to light freezing rain and drizzle in the Dahlonega area.
Reports were received from a trained spotter and the public of up to .01 inches of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces from light freezing rain and drizzle in the Cleveland and Sautee areas.
The Forsyth County Emergency Manager reported a trace amount of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces in the Coal Mountain area.
The Hall County Emergency Manager reported a trace amount of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces in the Beverly Hills area due to light freezing rain and drizzle. A similar report was received on social media from the Flowery Branch area.
Reports were received from the public of trace amounts of ice accumulations on elevated surfaces due to light freezing rain and drizzle in the Lilburn, Buford and Carrefour Place areas.
A report of trace accumulations of ice on elevated surfaces due to light freezing rain and drizzle was received from the public in the Danielsville area.
A report was received via social media of .03 inches of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces on Lookout Mountain.
The Stewart County 911 Center reported a few trees blown down on Highway 39 about a mile southwest of Omaha.
The Chattahoochee County 911 Center reported a tree blown down onto Miller Road in Cusseta.
The Upson County 911 Center reported trees and power lines blown down from around Highway 74 and Lawrence road in the Lawrence Mill area to Pleasant Valley Road in the Hendricks area and Lanier Road in the Redbone Crossroads area.
A NWS survey team found a path of wind damage stretching about 7 miles from around 3 miles east of Thomaston to 2 miles east of The Rock. Numerous trees were blown down or snapped along this path as well as isolated incidents of structural damage. Near the intersection of Highway 74 and Rualmaine Road, the front porch was blown off of a house. The bolts securing the metal posts holding up the porch were sheared off from the concrete pad. In this same area the tin roof of a medium-sized barn was ripped off and several trees were snapped. The most concentrated damage occurred along Rock Hill School Road where as many as 50 trees were snapped or up-rooted. This is where the maximum wind speed of 80 MPH was estimated to have occurred. A few more trees were found blown down along Fambro Road east of The Rock. No further damage was found downstream along the path of this storm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, February 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 614320, 614322, 614324, 614326, 614328, 614330, 614331, 614325, 614334, 614335, 614336, 614339.