Heavy rainfall in a basin north of Arches National Park resulted in a flash flood which reached a section of Arches National Park.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall in a basin north of Arches National Park resulted in a flash flood which reached a section of Arches National Park.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 19, 2:54 AM MST, 5 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 354 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 349 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING COMING IN UNDER SOME INNOCUOUS LOOKING CELLS ON RADAR THIS MORNING. COLD CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REMOTE SENSORS CLIMBING OVER AN INCH IN A FEW AREAS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS INCREASING. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WEATHER GRIDS TO ADD MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS WELL TO CLOSER MATCH SPC MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 RADAR CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP THIS MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AND A FEW REPORTS OF STRONGER WINDS BEING OBSERVED AT AUTOMATED SENSORS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADY ALL NIGHT LONG WITH FREQUENT FLASHES NEAR THE STRONGER CELLS IN EASTERN UTAH. DUE TO THE INCREASED ACTIVITY...FOCUS HAS BEEN ON SHORT TERM PERIODS EARLY THIS MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EJECTING WAVE THIS MORNING SPARKING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERTAKE WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. SPC HIGHLIGHT MARGINAL RISK AREA OVER EASTERN UTAH INTO WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...WITH FOCUS ON BORDERLINE SEVERE EVENTS WITH WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS EJECTING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. BEST FORCING OCCURS THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIDING BACK TOWARD MORE SEASONAL NORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 BLENDED MODELS SOLUTIONS ACCEPTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND NOW INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH SECONDARY KICKER WAVE ROLLING THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL BE COLDER AND SHOULD DRIVING SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO BELOW PASS LEVELS...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED. GENERAL COOLER PATTERN ACCEPTED WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF PERIODIC SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AT MOST LOCATIONS BY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 11000 FEET. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ020>022. UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029. && UPDATE...JDC SHORT TERM...JDC LONG TERM...JDC AVIATION...TGJT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 435 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-201200- LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- 435 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 58 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THE LOWER VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST COLORADO. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY BETWEEN 9500 AND 12000 FEET WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
332 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0215 AM FLOOD BLANDING 37.62N 109.48W
10/19/2015 SAN JUAN UT PUBLIC
MINOR STREET FLOODING REPORTED
&&
EVENT NUMBER GJT1501028
JDCThe Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 119 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:01 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall in a basin north of Arches National Park on the evening of October 18th resulted in a flash flood which reached a section of Arches National Park on the morning of the 19th in the Delicate Arch Road area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 634661.