Funnel Cloud in Oregon, October 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
301 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY FOR DRYING WEATHER AND AREAS OF
FOG OR LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL CLEAR OUT BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY
BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...WHILE A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH THE
PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENED. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
MOVED SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM SPLIT...WITH THE LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MEASURED NEAR FLORENCE AND NEWPORT. INLAND...THE TOTALS RANGED FROM
AROUND ONE THIRD OF AN INCH NEAR EUGENE AND ONE TO TWO TENTHS NEAR
SALEM...BUT LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE
VALLEY.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COAST AND MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WHILE SOME
CLEARING IS EVIDENT OFFSHORE...STILL THINK THAT THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT CLOUDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY ALOFT AS FLOW TURNS
NORTHERLY...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET
UP AS THE CLOUD DECK THINS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST PLENTY OF
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THEREFORE...LOCAL PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WHERE THE OVERHEAD
CLOUDS THIN SUFFICIENTLY EARLY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL OREGON
COAST AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL WAS
OBSERVED TODAY.

FOR TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IN THE EARLY MORNING OVER
SW WASHINGTON AND THE N OREGON COAST IN THE LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
AFTERNOON SUN. WITH THE AFTERNOON SUN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THE CLEARING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO A COOL NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND SOME OUTLYING AREAS INTO THE UPPER 30S. UNDER EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECT TO SEE MORE ABUNDANT AND WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH
THE DEPICTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT OVERALL HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
KEEPING THINGS DRY INLAND WITH THE ANY RAIN STRUGGLING TO PUSH MUCH
FURTHER INLAND THAN THE COAST. MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE COAST
AND INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON BUT ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
RATHER MINIMAL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE FLOW ALOFT EARLY
THURSDAY BUT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP FOR THURSDAY. EXPECT LITTLE DAY
TO DAY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING QUITE SEASONABLE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING PRECISELY HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE...ALONG WITH HOW MUCH. FOR NOW...CONTINUED
THE FORECAST INDICATING GENERALIZED RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND WILL REFINE THE
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE
CLEAR.	 CULLEN

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS A FRONT DEPARTS
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING
THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH A MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A MIX OF FOG AND LOW
CIGS FOR IFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST PERIOD FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS IS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z TUE. CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED
CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS AND STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE RESULTS. IF THERE ISN'T ENOUGH CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT MVFR CIGS MAY BE THE FAVORED.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS NEAR 2000 FT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 03Z TUE THEN LIFT TO VFR. IFR FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TUE MORNING.  /MH

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT MOVED ASHORE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW IS OFF THE CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE COLUMBIA RIVER AS IT WEAKENS. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT THIS EVENING OF THE WATERS NORTH
OF CASCADE HEAD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
STEEP SEAS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM IS WORKING INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS. BUOY 46089 ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF ASTORIA IS REPORTING 10 FT
WITH A 8 SECOND PERIOD.

WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT. WIND IS FCST TO RETURN TO
NORTHERLY TUE AND MUCH OF WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NE PAC
AND A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP OVER N CALIF AND S OREGON. ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT EXPECTED WED...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRES RETURNS FOR THE LATE WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONGER SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND APPROACHING THE PACNW BUT
MODEL AGREEMENT IS LOW FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD     OR
OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 8 PM
THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
547 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     COBURG                  44.14N 123.06W
10/19/2015                   LANE               OR   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN
            THE VICINITY OF COBURG OREGON, INCLUDING A PHOTO AND
            SHORT VIDEO VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

DELSON