Strong low pressure tracked across the Plains on October 31, 2015. Very strong winds occurred across the Mid-South ahead of an advancing cold front.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Strong low pressure tracked across the Plains on October 31, 2015. Very strong winds occurred across the Mid-South ahead of an advancing cold front. Gusts over 40 mph were common across West Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 11:42 AM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 .UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH WEST TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IS TRANSPORTING PACIFIC AND SOME GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE INDICATED RAIN ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS...TEMPERATURES AND ALL OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. CJC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...RAIN IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA AS OVERRUNNING INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WET DAY ON TAP FOR THE MIDSOUTH. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL RACE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER TEXAS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES CLIMBING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY 18Z. MEANWHILE A STRENGTHENING 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS SOUTH OF I-40 ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE OVER AN INCH COULD FALL BEFORE THE BEST LIFT EXITS LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TRICK OR TREATING THIS EVENING WILL BE A DAMP AFFAIR FOR THE MEMPHIS METRO BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD END BY SUNSET WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT BEHIND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR JONESBORO AND JACKSON. HEAVIER PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH MISSISSIPPI. HIGHS WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER 60S TODAY THANKS TO RAIN AND CLOUDS. AFTER THE HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING EXPECT JUST SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD DEVELOPING A MORE VIGOROUS CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. BY 12Z SUNDAY MODELS PUT THIS FEATURE OVER TEXAS WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA. DURING THE DAY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEARBY. INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI FROM NOW THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY. SJM && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS STEADY RAIN SHOULD END IN A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR...AROUND 1930 AT JBR...2030 AT MEM...2200 AT MKL AND 2300 AT TUP. CIGS WILL LOWER JUST BEFORE OR SLIGHTLY AFTER RAIN COMES TO AN END. EXPECTING IFR OR LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. VIS IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH TO AT LEAST IFR TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...5-10KT TODAY...LESS THAN 5KT OVERNIGHT. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 416 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-011130- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 416 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SJM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Strong winds knocked down several trees and caused some power outages across Northern Obion County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, October 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 605043.