NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 3:29 PM EST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 3:29 PM EST, 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THIS
WEEKEND WHILE LARGE AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT TO THE EAST, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A PAIR OF HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK, WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURES INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER GOING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES, KEEPING A
MOIST FLOW OPEN FROM THE GULF. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME PERIODS
OF MORE MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL GOING THROUGH TONIGHT,
AND WE KEEP POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND COUNTIES NEAR THE COAST CONTINUE WITH THE APPROPRIATE
WIND HEADLINES, AS GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THESE
AREAS. COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDES, AND MORE DETAIL ON THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION.
AFTER ONLY ACHIEVING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAY, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
TOO MUCH. WE ANTICIPATE LOWS IN THE 40S FOR OUR NORTHWEST AREAS AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A SIMILAR SET-UP IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY, WITH STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND A CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. WHILE SOME RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY,
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAR LESS, MAINLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO, AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS MERIDIONAL AND WE LOSE THE
DIRECT GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE, AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
COUNTIES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THROUGH THE DAY AS
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRESENT ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN ON FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL DEFINITELY BE A COOL
EARLY OCTOBER DAY WITH THE CLOUDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN, AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHERN NJ AND THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE
OVER THE MS VALLEY RAPIDLY BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EJECTING OUT OF THE
WESTERN NOAM TROUGH. THIS BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
HUDSONS BAY, WHILE SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE /NEWFOUNDLAND WHEEL/ TO
RECEDE SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS JOAQUIN TO TAKE A PATH OUT TO
SEA, INSTEAD OF TRACKING WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE
TO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. BY MID-WEEK, THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
COAST, WITH THE FLOW OVER OUR AREA BECOMING NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE A CONTINUED, STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. BY THAT TIME, ATTENTION TURNS TO A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST, WHICH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE A COLD FRONT/AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH INDICATIONS OF A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY, AS THE RIDGE TAKES
HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST NORTH
OF THE REGION AS THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
OVER THE MARITIMES BUILDS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST
LOW- LEVEL JET EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT FINALLY BEGINS TO
RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH NEAR THE
COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WHICH MAY NECCESITATE THE
NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MODELED TO DEVELOP
OFF FLORIDA. ALOFT, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE VA
CAPES. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN DEPARTING JOAQUIN AND THE CUT- OFF
LOW IS MODELED TO CREATE SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, THE NEARBY MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO SOME DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER
DELMARVA, ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K SURFACE, THUS
HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS HERE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET TO
OUR EAST. THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE
COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE
DECREASES WITH A CONTINUED NORTHEAST WIND TRAJECTORY. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 20 TO 25 MPH.
TUESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING NORTHEAST, FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND JOAQUIN, WHICH WILL
BE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND. AS THESE FEATURES DEPART, THE FLOW AT
THE MID-LEVELS BECOMES WESTERLY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SUBTLE
SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW, ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE UPSTREAM AT THIS TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THE MODELS DO NOT
GENERATE ANY QPF, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW /EXCEPT
FOR A POTENTIAL SEA-BREEZE/ WILL HAVE CEASED, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERALL.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY ON. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL PROMOTE
HIGH PRESSURE. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE PRECIP AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT
WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE TAFS WILL CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY STEADY MVFR TO
POSSIBLY UPPER END IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINS WITH ASSOCIATED LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE KACY/KMIV VICINITY.
SATURDAY...CONTINUED MVFR TO POSSIBLY UPPER END IFR CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES. CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE KACY/KMIV VICINITY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS AT
KPHL AND 33 KTS AT ACY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS
AND SHRA, MAINLY AT MIV, AND ACY. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THRU MONDAY AT ACY AND MIV.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR ARE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
BASED ON AVAILABLE BUOY AND WEATHERFLOW DATA, WE CONTINUE A STORM
WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET, NJ
SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE THROUGH 05Z SATURDAY. THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING, WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THESE WATERS. THEREAFTER, THIS HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO
A GALE WARNING.
ELSEWHERE, A GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF OUR ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, RANGING FROM 10 TO 17 FEET. SEAS IN
THE DELAWARE BAY WILL RANGE MOSTLY BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FEET, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...GALE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 34 KNOTS. DOUBLE DIGIT SEAON FRIDAYS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE OCEAN.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW THE SCA THRESHOLD SUNDAY NIGHT, HAZARDOUS SEAS OF AT LEAST
FIVE FEET ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY. THUS, MARINE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONGOING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD THREAT AS STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE LEADING TO WATER
RUNUP ON LAND.
ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND DELAWARE BAY AND RIVER...THE ONGOING
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT AS STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE LEADING TO WATER RUNUP ON LAND.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FORCE THE TIDES ACROSS DELAWARE BAY/RIVER AND
THE BACK BAYS TO NOT FULLY RECEDE BEFORE THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS SO FAR PRODUCED WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BACK BAYS. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY, BUT KEPT THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THE SAME AS THE NEXT
SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES ARE LIKELY TO BE PROBLEMATIC. COASTAL FLOOD
ISSUES MAY CONTINUE PAST SUNDAY, BUT THE WORST OF IT SHOULD BE OVER
BY THEN.
FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH BOTH
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TOMORROW AT CAMBRIDGE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR QUEEN ANNE'S, TALBOT, AND CAROLINE COUNTIES. AT
THIS TIME, COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT TOLCHESTER BEACH
GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR FLOODING IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THUS, WILL NOT INCLUDE CECIL OR KENT (MD)
COUNTIES IN ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBER JUST COMPLETED.
PHL #2 POR 1874
1881 75.4
2015 74.5 5.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 74.1
1930 74.1
ABE #3 POR 1922
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
2015 69.7 5.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1931 69.4
ILG #3 POR 1917
1895 72.9
1961 72.5
2015 72.4 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1930 72.3
ACY #5 POR 1874
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
2015 71.6 4.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
1933 71.5
DAILY RECORD RAINFALL INFORMATION BELOW
10/2
PHL 1.52-1929
ACY 1.74-1939
ILG 2.35-1929
GED 0.93-1989
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-022-
023-026-027.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NJZ015>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ003.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450-451.
&&
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLINE
MARINE...FRANCK/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...DRAG